blonde poker forum

Stuff Xmas, Boxing Day and the racing is what I'm looking forward to and the King George looks fascinating this year.

Kauto Star, if he can win it, will equal the great Desert Orchid's unique feat of winning three King George's in a row but he has shown to many chinks in his armour recently to warrant carrying any of my hard-earned at around 6/4.

Voy Por Ustedes, stepping up in trip and trying three miles for the first time, although Kempton is considered to be the "easiest" three miles around, he's still short enough for me at 7/2 generally.

Air Force One is the apple of trainer Charlie Mann's eye but I thought that he lacked battling quality last time out so he's presently in the "bit of a ponce" category in my little black book.

Imperial Commander is the unexposed second-season 'chaser who we will all know a lot more about after this race. Hugely impressive when winning the Paddy Power 'chase at Cheltenham last time out after which his jockey, Paddy Brennan said that he was the best horse he'd ever sat on. His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is somewhat in the doldrums but did have a winner last week and the forecast ground which is the soft side of good is okay but any rain would help his chances. I'm on at 12/1 and am hopeful of a big run.

Our Vic, Tidal Bay and Noland are the other main protagonists in what promises to be a superb renewal.

Right I'm off to the butcher's shop for vital supplies.

I'm on Air Force One EW @ 14s and reasonably confident.

Kauto...6-4? Yes please. The horse hasn't shown any chinks really..He got beat by Denman in the GC..but there is nothing of that calibre in this race and the horses left in this race can't gallop Kauto into the ground like Denman did. He made a mistake when beating a nose by Our Vic..but that was at the end of a long season and he slipped last time out..he still would have won that if he hadn't.

At 6-4 I'm looking for a bank that will let me remortgage the house, will surely not be backing anything else in this race.

Voy Por Ustedes can only win if Kauto slips up..but should stay.

Imperial Commander is interesting but Twiston Davies's yard is collosally out of form so I can't see this getting more than a place either.

Our Vic is the forgotten horse in the race..9-1 looks a fair price if Kauto slips up he could very well win this...but I reckon Kauto is a good thing.

I'm not sure i agree that Kauto hasn't shown any chinks. He only beat Neptune Collanges by a short head in this year's Gold Cup,and while he may have won at Haydock last time,he would have made very hard work of beating Tamarinbleu and Snoopy Loopy off levels. Form that suggests he may be past his best imo.

I'm on Our Vic,i like the way Pipe has kept him fresh for the race,could do with a bit of rain though.

Have to agree with Boldie,if Kauto stays on his feet i think he will win. Massive negatives for the pipe and twinston-davis runners because of stable form.

I think Kuato Star does have a lot of chinks / ????? about him just now and at 6/4 I am not interested.

Imperial Commander available now at 16-1 on bf looks good value to me (E/W of course)

I think i'll be on Kauto at 6/4.
This might be the race we find out he has passed his best but until then i think he deserves another punt.

It's drifting because the ground looks like being  a little quicker than ideal and the trainer has only had one winner this month. I've been on for over a week and expected it to shorten obv. I still think it has a very big chance.

I rather be a layer than a player here, too many questions about Kauto these days, i dont think it's the hores it was

Im on Our Vic at 10/1, it looks a little underrated to me. The trainer form is obviously a worry but at 10 Im happy to take a chance.

gl all

> 2.40 KEMPTON
>
> I have already advised we back AIR FORCE ONE each-way at 14/1 a couple of weeks ago and I'm happy with that looking at his price now. I do think Kauto Star is on the downgrade and vulnerable, believe Voy Por Ustedes is 7lbs better going left-handed and the Twiston-Davies (Imperial Commander) and Pipe (Tamarinbleu & Our Vic) yards are so out of form it's untrue, so am actually very hopeful he can go all the way. Just outstayed after travelling superbly in the Hennessy over 3m2f, I reckon a flat three miles on decent ground is just what he wants and he may even prefer going right-handed (his best two runs as a novice were that way round) so he can give us a major run for our money and, being only a six-year-old, there is surely more to come. I wouldn't totally dismiss Albertas Run hitting the frame after two poor runs for the simple reason the O'Neill yard are in far better form now than before so wouldn't put you off looking at him at a big price each-way and prefer him to Snoopy Loopy of the bigger-priced horses.

If Kauto doesn't win this I reckon he might be retired as he needs to win this to have a shot against Denman in the GC and surely the owners don't want people saying that "he's past his best" for the entire run up to Cheltenham. Nichols wouldn't run him if he didn't think he was good enough to beat this lot, the more I think about it and look at the race the less I can't see past Kauto.

Good point by Horneris about Albertas Run.If you can forgive him his runs this season.He beat air force one easily at Cheltenham and at Ascot giving him 3lbs,last season.Could be a bit of value ew at 33/1.

Our Vic / Albertas Run

AP, who rides him, all but wrote Albertas off in his Telegraph Column today saying he has too much too find even on his best form.

I cant take the praise for writing that, i took it from somewhere.

I think a chunky EW bet on Cloudy Lane @ 6/1 in the big race at Wetherby is the best option, as long as it keeps to 8 runners.

boldie i dont agree with your analysis of kauto at all, yes he got trounced by denman which is forgivable but it was a hard race, it took a lot out of him chasing denman round cheltnham.

Then it comes out in a 5/6 runner race at aintree and gets bt by our vic, he made some terrible mistakes in that race but they were the mistakes of a tired horse and was lucky to stay up, out vic is a decent horse but  kauto should be running all over our vic even if he's made mistakes in the race, the horse just didnt look the same to me.

Then first time out this year we learn nothing about the horse, another 5 or 6 runner race where the only half decent horse in the race was the listener and that clearly didnt run any race and finished last, any half decent chaser wouldve trounced the horses that finished 2nd and third.

Then last time out had so many parallels with its run at aintree, It looked beaten to me when it fell and again it was tired fall, he may have grinded out the win if he'd stayed up but he was bang under pressure when he fell and the jockey had been asking him for a long way.

Thats the last 4 races(three of which he's been beat in) that raise serious questions about the horse.

At a price like that i dont want to be guessing and to me the horse just isnt the same(i'm not writing the horse off, he's still at 8yo after all) and even though it doesnt seem the greatest field in the world tomorrow he's proved that if he's not up for it, not fit or if he's just not the horse he once was he's vulnerable to much lesser opposition than he was beating + years ago.

I like Standing Obligation EW in the Wetherby race.Ran a cracker on seasonal debut,has no weight to carry and the assistance of young claimer Ryan Mania is best young jockey i've seen for a long time.

I take it Kauto put every doubter in his place now?

What a race, what a horse!..That was the last time you will ever get odds against on Kauto guys.

thank you fellas!

Forget about this if denman runs

We haven't seen Denman yet this season...and I would have to see a supreme performance from Danmen before the GC to go against Kauto

if denman diidt have a run then but the stable was pleased with it and said it was buzzing how would how bet he two?

If Denman hadn't bveen out before the GC you can't possibly back it to win it and I am sure Kauto would start off as favourite between the 2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-gold-cup

I dont know if these have been amended to reflect todays run, seems ridic big about kauto to me.

Kauto presently 3.95, all but 3/1 on Betfair, Denman is 2/1 for the GC.

4/1 with pp, seems big even too me but Denman is a worth jolly IMO

PMSL @ Pressgang

you can laugh if you backed it now but imagine you had it for a lump, you'd of been going mental!

Very military. Left, left, left left left.

agreed, Kauto shouldn't be 3-1 with all the uncertainty about Denman and his heart.

Thats xmas payed for had  a decent punt on Kauto and loose change ew Albertas Run.