blonde poker forum

£200 D-C Freezeout at Walsall last night.  17 left, 15 paid.  Blinds are 2000/4000/300, we are 8 handed with 50k - average 70k and find  Ac Th in the small blind.  Raised to 15k by aggresive player in mid position then passed round to me.  Raiser has about 90k and has been raising 2-3 times an orbit, mostly without contest.  When looked up he's shown  Ac Ks, 6d 7c,  Qc 9c,  Ac 7h.  So, as the title suggests, do you get them in here or wait for position and a better spot?

I wait coz i'm a pure nit

+1

I think I sigh and pass here too.   

The problem you have is that, if you push, he's getting 2-1 on the call, so if he knows what he's doing (which it looks like he might do) he'll call, so if his range is Ax, pairs and some random live cards then you're basically flipping for your tournament.

With 12BB in a tourney where average stack is only 18BB, I'd be happy to flip.

For you, it depends on how important not bubbling is.

Hmm really interesting spot with the situation/reads and stack sizes etc.  

If you think he calls 35k more with a hand like Q9sooted to your shove then it becomes an even harder decision imo.

I don't know your image but if he's not likely to call u light then I prob shove. I don't like his open to 15k though - gay bet imo.

I don't think folding is that bad either with 50k and the button next hand. This is really read dependent.

Nutter.

There is no better spot than this.

pretty standard to get it in here imo - u make money in mtts from the wins, not the min cashes

Sounds like he's taking advantage of the bubble to me ...snap shove for me

I think the size of his raise here potentially looks quite strong, especially if it is larger than his normal raise. There seems to be a bit of a trend with players who know they are meant to be aggro in this type of scenario to slightly overbet their genuine hands and just have a standard 2.5-3bb bet when stealing. You are however well ahead of his range based on the info we have making it a pretty straightforward shove. Whilst you obv prefer a call from the lower end of his range(he should call any two), if he thinks you're nitty you might have some FE.   

i would wait here u still have 2 more orbits to wait for a better spot
ace ten isnt the greatest hand and its easily dominated

For restealing, this is the last orbit - one more set of blinds and a repush isn't getting through.

Given what he's shown, and assuming that his preflop raising sizes have been of a similar amount, this is a push. You're likely to be ahead, so with the current blinds and stacks, there is no reason to not move all in unless you're desperate to scrape into the money.

push here...and very rapidly.

unless you're going to lose the hand obv.

I don't think my input would be appreciated. Yoi know what I'd say, anyway.......

Well at this point in tournament on our table the raise seemed to be to 11,000 so as he has raised to 15,000 id say it was quite a big raise i would have waited for a better position to put my chips because with his raise to 15k i sense he wouldnt pass to my re-raise and he must have noticed his image on the table so i dont think he would keep raising with nothing.

If he raises 2-3 times per orbit he's been catching some beautiful cards..so unless Claw has noticed that he's slowed down he is most likely raising with marginal hands a lot of the time.

+1

Michael Berryman and Moby agree on something?   WTF is the world coming to

100% shove

What better spot is there? I aim intrigued, unless you know you are getting AA and action in the next 10 hands what is better than this?

Shove monkeyness the only way here imo

shoving makes more money than any other option.

cheers folks - as usual a mix of replies which is kind of what I was hoping for as I usually convince myself after these kind of situations that I've done something obviously wrong, but looks like there are schools of thought in both camps.  Not that it matters, but I went for the shove monkeyness ;D

 just open shove if it ever gets round to u when ur in lp and no one else is in the pot

listen to him fluhsy, he's talking sense

are u being sarcastic?
allot of ppl are pretty sarcastic on this forum

that's because it IS big, and it IS clever.

you dont do yourself any favours

so you win 6k....this way you win 21k....

outcome?
bink vs 88?

This is a clear pass to me.

These +EV shoves only get posted when they go wrong so you should have used a bit of foresight and figured out that somehow you were going to lose your entire stack despite making a correct decision.

You fool!!!!!

Yeah, maybe you should rock up and pass Claire. There was a guy who passed Jacks at D.T.D after raising pre-flop last night. JACKS you know. And he was at the final, so he must have been good. I have never seen Jacks turned into a bluff before. But I think this is NEW thinking, and we must be aware of it.

He was metagaming.  Possibly...

Seriously can't believe people are suggesting folding here, its giving money away.  We may not win the pot on this occasion but longterm we are winning and thats the aim surley?

But if we pass on this occasion which is the one we lose (because it's the one posted on PHA) then our overall EV increases.

If we make the shove only on the hands that aren't worthy of analysis then we are almost invincible.

I like your thinking.  So Claire is effectively shoving for info (from the PHA board) when she makes this play.

LOL!

Exactly.

So if she reverses the thinking and decides first whether or not she will be posting on PHA she can decide whether or not she is going to win the hand and therefore whether or not to shove.

In this instance she was going to post the hand for analysis therefore it is a clear fold.

Can someone please ring 2+2 publishing and tell them we have a new strategy book concept pls. No, in fact don't. Let's keep this idea for ourselves. 9 blondes at WSOP ME final table this year imo.