blonde poker forum

£250 buy in Live tourney. Blinds 100/200.

You have 19k the average is round 11k starting stack was 10k. You raise to 600 utg +1 with 106dd, called in middle position by a reasonable player in who has 11k and in the bb by roberto romanello's brother anthony who has 14k (pretty much an unkown standard wise to me). j The raise is just to mix things up, there haven't been many unopened pots you haven't played many hands but when you have you've shown down only very strong hands AA on a super dry board and QQQ called down AK on an A high unconnected board.

The flop comes 4d5dAs, anthony checks I bet 1500 it's flat called in MP. Anthony makes it 3800 to go.

Whats our move?   

Do you think he passes a a big-ish A if you shove?  If not fold...

Definitely not a standard shove...

Against 2 players, and with the image you say you have, this raise isn't a squeeze hardly ever, and indicates a minimum of an Ace.

If you shove, we know he isn't folding AK, A4, A5 probably AQ, possibly AJ(?) and remember he's always going with an A-diamonds, kicker-diamonds hand here, which is also possible. 44, 55, and 45 also possible here which aren't folding.

Admittedly you get all other hands to fold, but it's a high-risk play which I don't think is necessary here.

Add this with the flat caller to your left, and there is at least a chance he is stong here, I think this is a fold.

Calling isn't good here, because even if you hit your hand, with 2 players in the pot you could easily be beat. Perhaps a King high flush draw and you could peel one off.

Vote = Fold

I really don't like this spot. I don't like the open UTG+1 this early with your hand either, regardless of your table image. You can pick better spots to 'mix things up'.

You could be dead in the water here. If you're up against Anthony's flush draw you're getting called now and drawing to like an offsuit ten if he doesn't have you in worse shape than A-x dd. If he has 2 pair or a set he's not folding either and we're gambling in an unnecessary spot. As James said, there's no reason the first caller can't wake up with a set here either.

That's another firm FOLD vote from me.

I don't mind the preflop raise really. Playing your image, the table, and your chip advantage rather than just the cards is a pretty good mentality. I prob vote fold in the end I suppose. You've still got plenty above average and this situation isn't the best.

Thanks for the comments, I'm a little surprised that people think it's a clear fold.

The occassional raise with 610dd type hands in ep is pretty standard, I wouldn't change that.

He would fold non ace flush draws here pretty much all the time.

We also have 40% equity against big non diamond aces.

I think we are hugely underestimating just how much live players value their tournament lives, it's the major flaw in most live players games and therefore obviously the thing we must try to exploit the most.




 

I much prefer 68 diamonds to 610

First off bud can you see the contradiction in saying that villain 2 is an unknown to you standard-wise...and then telling us all the hands he is or isn't gonna give you action with? You are basing your decision on guessing what he's gonna do imo. If you don't know the player you can't say what he's going to do, and that's a factor here. Add to this villain 1 who can be quietly sitting there with a hand that crushes you and this isn't a great spot. You could hit your draw and still lose very easily. If you think that gambling 3/4 of your stack is easily +1 in this situation then I would agree with what you said about live players not valuing their tournament lives much.

yep 1 gappers over 3 gappers any day, funnily enough the river was an offsuit 7 ;-). It's more the dynamics of our stacks with regard to FE rather than the actual hands that I found interesting. What range are they going to put me on here?

So you shoved and he called?

Not gonna fault you for mixing up your play, though perhaps 1+UTG isn't the ideal place...

By shoving they have to put you on AJ or better. But your still getting called by the range I mentioned earlier even repping this hand.

That response is funny Mantis, I said he would fold non-nut flush draws thats a tiny part of his range, hardly "all the hands he will fold". I also said live players overvalue their tournament lives not undervalue. Lastly I didn't say the shove was easily +EV at any stage, I think it's close that's all.

Thank you for the comments though of course. I've always thought alot of your analysis on here makes good sense :-)

Always happy to be of assistance

kukushkin88 . anthonys check raise on the flop is a peculiar size,he has around 30% of his stack in and has virtually priced a flush draw in to call..this intrigues me as he has set the bet size wise to get it in if re-raised or if called he can stick it all in on the turn/river...
MP call seems to me has an ace with a decent kicker, Anthony though ?? either Ad with a good diamond kicker or a set of 4's or 5's expecting either yourself or mp to re-raise a flush and then he'll get it in..so i'd guess he may have a set here..

what did you think of Anthonys sizing of the bet ??

His bet size looks like he's pricing in a draw I agree, we'll balance this with the fact that it's on the limit of what he can raise/fold. (would probably be a mistake for him to raise fold here but why rule out a mistake, live poker is littered with them) Anyway I shove, having considered making it 8k just because he may fold even wider to this type of bet. MP folds quickly and Anthony dwells for near 5 minutes before calling with 45. I'm too nice a guy to call it a nitroll but he definitely appeared to really seriously think about folding. I probably still think its a shove and Alex M agreed at the time, nice to have a few different opinions though.

yep his bet size suggested to me he had considered getting it in with something strong, i'm just surprised he dwelled like you say as he priced a flush to re-raise here and if for some reason he is only called he can take it down on a non-diamond turn.

he sized his bet well imo...