blonde poker forum

Just been studying the draw for the Aus open tennis and Fed has deffo come off worst in his section of the draw out of the big 4 players.

His oppos if the draw plays out correctly should be:

Seppi
Moya
Safin
Wawrinka
Ferrer / Del Potro
Roddick / Djokovic
Nadal / Murray

Obviously by the quarters its the same for all of them but Moya Safin Wawrinka Ferrer or del potro would all be tough games.

Brave bet as he could just sweep them all aside but he has deffo not been lucky in the draw

Murray FTMFW YO

Wow that is a sod of a draw, Safin is a real man to avoid for the big guns in grand slam as at his best he can beat anyone.

The bookies are going to be making a massive loss on this if Murray scoops, so his price is too short cos of the liabilites they have on him. Maybe Djokovic is the valoooooooo.

Longy please change your avatar.

I don't look your name before reading the post and I always assume it's Flushy speaking and I'm mentally getting ready to pour scorn on the post :)

FML

Del Potro and Roddick for the value, hope Murray wins but think he'll bottle it

Lol, you will notice the difference that it takes me two sentences to call someone an idiot whereas it takes flushy two words.

Murray to beat Fed in final. Go on son.

When's Murray's first round match GMT?

your getting al,ost even money on fed or nadal to win....great investment imo

get a bet on with a non uk based bookie then

I am actually surprised with Murray's price its way too short, I would be willing to lay him till the cows came home.  I think he is geting there but is probably still a wee bit away from reaching his peak.  I think although he is getting bigger and stronger, he still seems a wee bit scrony and Federer and Nadal seem to up their games in the slams.

+1

I think his price is way too short also and agree with those 2 upping their game for the slams(just think of Fed at the U.S open) But the very fact that he is in with a genuine shout of winning a slam(even with Fed, Nadal & Djokovic in there) is brilliant. Never been more interested in watching Tennis than now as it will be interesting if he can match his form so far this year when it comes to the biggies

Often a fringe player does well in the Aussie Open.

verdasco - 80/1 not a bad outside bet. (just did well in Brisbane)
Karlovic or Mardy Fish 2 other horses if they fire on the hard surface.

Federer is extremly opposable on current form, he has looked flat in the last few months, its worrying. 

Djokovic has been awful so far this season and was beaten comfortably by Gulbis a couple of weeks ago so i couldnt back him atm.

Nadal is my favourite player but has started badly this season going down without much fight against Monfils, and he hasnt seemed to hit top form again yet since his injury at the back end of the next year. If you get the chance to see him in the early rounds and appears to be close to top form jam on the 4/1 while you can. Otherwise, id leave it.

Murray is the clear form pick, but isnt for me at 11/4. He hasn't shown enough for me so far in Grand Slams/when it matters yet. I also think he will be stronger in the US Open. I think he could make the final but I'd have him at closer to 4/1.

I'd be tempted to advise a bet on Nalbandian. He won the ATP tournament last week so his price isnt overly attractive, but hes the one player outside of the top 4 that could beat anyone on his day, and at 33/1 on Betfair i think its worth taking a chance that he is "on an on day" when it matters. He beat Murray in straight sets towards the end of last season and has beaten Federer on many previous occasions. The only big worry is his recent record in grand slams, where although making the latter rounds, has been comprehensively beaten by Dancevic, Monfils and Ferrero. Can be brilliant, can be awful. I hope he is brilliant.

Other outsiders;

Monfils has a decent draw and as previously stated has beaten Nadal already this year but i wouldnt rely on him to repeat this in the quarter finals of a grand slam where he will meet the Spaniard.
Del Potro is interesting, but i don't believe hes quite good enough just yet.
Roddick doesnt quite have the top top quality in the latter stages anymore when the ball is in play.
Simon beat both Federer and Nadal last season but there is an argument to be had that he is better on a Indoor Hard Court. I also don't think he'll prove to be the same force this season.

0.25pts win Nalbandian @ 33/1.

Midnight, yay!

murray is a horrible bet:

1) he's too short and no value

2) 2 players in the field cane him in grandslams

3) he's a prick

Which 2 players Federer (in 1 match) and .........................

sigh, just no 3 then!

Well, I backed Murray at 6-1 and I think that's a great bet. Since Wimbledon last year he's the best player in the world - by far. Federer and Djokovic judging by their interviews are quite obviously worried about him. He also has a better draw than the others IMO.

As to whether he's a prick or not that doesn't affect his chances of winning.

my longish shot may meet Murray if they both win their next 3rd round game.
Verdasco was 80/1 at start in top 15 in world and in good form.

will see how Murray copes with the heat - time of play a big factor. night a lot cooler.

hmm, he trained in Spain from like 14-18, playing all day in boiling conditions so i think he should be ok.

Very blunt of you imo.

 ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee; ;sark; ;sark; ;sark; ;sark; ;sark; ;sark; ;sark;

[ ] wp Murray

I'm not anti Murray but being an ex-player have kept an eye on the new talent emerging.
I only saw bits of the game but felt Verdasco deserved the victory.
Whether he can win 3 more games and be the 2009 break through is another story.
Tsonga maybe, Nadal/Simon hmm, then Federer/Djokovic a tall ask but will take the 80/1 if he does.
 

yup, was a good shout on Verdasco by yourself at the start of the thread.

With Djoko out, it certainly looks like a Nadal v fed fnal now, so I am glad I didnt back against Fed !!!

He did have the toughest draw although he will be delighted to be facing Rodick instead of Djoko, although Roddick has played well this tourn so far.