blonde poker forum

$1-2 NLHE

folded to Button playing $325, raises to $7

Hero in SB playing $250 with  Aspades 7s

what is the right play here? call or raise to $25 or so?

Button stats over session 22/14/3


Anyway I call

Flop

 8s 9h Th

I check call $8 bet

Turn

 6c which is nice

until I lead for $20 and after a timebank dwell he shoves the lot in

Mindful that overbet shovy things are often nut hands in my recent limited experience, this is a fold right?     

default 3b/fold preflop especially HU, 22/14 is a tight player.  given tight range fold as ur dominated by too many of his holdings + oop without initiative, id guess something like call 20%/3b 15%/fold 65%. Flop check call is fine. Turn i dislike leading, as played though its a properly tough decision, not many 22/14 can overbet shove a non-freerolling/immortal nuts hand though, so i guess fold is right. Call the 1st overbet shove a reg makes, then you'll know in the future :)

This hand plays very poorly in this position, so I'd fold preflop, especially against a player with these stats unless he has a liking to raising the button with a wide range. If that's the case, then I'd rather 3-bet, but understand that I have to follow through with a continue bet to make it a +ev move. I definitely wouldn't advise flatting. As it is, check-calling is just about acceptable considering the size of the bet, although I'm not a fan of the lead on the turn - I'd rather check and let him try to bluff a hand like A-K. When he's pushes, I'd probably make a reluctant fold. Most would just flat without the nuts I feel, unless they're a donk. It's an outrageous bluff if he's got nowt.

This is definitely a fold once he shoves. His likely range should be skull fucking you because the times he doesn't have a 7 or better, he has nine outs or more.

thank you Lloyd

what is the thinking/theory about a big overbet shove with a monster hand here? why not just value bet and try and extract more streets of value?

btw he showed J7 suited when I folded.

You haz teh readz.

Don't know why he's showed. He probably thinks 'I've shown him I don't bluff' whereas he's actually shown that he'll button raise with J7, so re-pop him next time.

Also, I think timebank shoves are even more likely to be nuts than an insta-shove.

coz the hands he can get 2 streets of value from that are not sevens are non-existent if opponent is competent. given he is trying to stack you an overbet doesnt need to be called that often to be profitable, say a $30 might get called 7/10 but $200 might get called 2/10 (given how his range interacts with that board, cant be bothered to go through his exact range+ the math but look on 2+2/DC etc and its generally right on these boards, AA on K3332  and A3 on AK333 are other sweet spots (actually much better than this)) It will show that overbetting here is the best line provided:-

a) if opponent has a seven he will call a huge overbet and you will double through him, maximising profit.

b) if opponent has any other hand you will not be able to extract more out of him. He wont call/raise unless you are beaten on the river, like he houses/flushes up.

They used to be really effective for stacking donkeys/bad regs. Now people (better players) have realised robotic players dont balance these bets. When solid tags/abc types use overbets i laugh. at the moment they work really well as bluffs versus thinking players.