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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 11:50:39 AM



Title: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 11:50:39 AM
£1/£2 live cash

Loose game, 9 handed, full of aggressive spewy types.

I am the most selective at the table, and have won a couple of smallball pots to get to £260, but had to showdown each time

The opportunity to bluff is really only present against two of the tighter players at the table, the rest will call you down with all sorts. Great if you are hitting hands, frustrating if a little out of form

In this particular pot sensible Player A raises to £8 in mid position, playing £230

Player B, clueless and two buy ins down and reloaded at £200, calls in the cut off. He'll go a long way if he hits part of a flop, but not interested if he misses

Hero on the button with  9d 8d takes a flop in position, already with half an eye on trading off his image down the line which has been commented on several times. It usually is!

Big blind calls

£33 in the pot

Flop

3d 4s 7h

Blind checks

Player A bets £20, routine C-bet on that flop.

Player B folds, which makes it easier

Hero makes it £50 repping a made hand like overpair

Blind folds

Player A flats, frankly I've underdone my raise size and priced him in with loads I think

£133 in pot

Turn

 4h, a blank you'd think

Checked to Hero

Hero follows through £100

Called after a huge dwell

£333 in pot and we're now shallow I'm about £100 behind, he's about £80 behind

Still my story is consistent with 88+ I hope. Problem is he might have too, albeit he's not got 1010+ you'd think, played this passively

River

 2c, another blank you'd think

Checked again

With no showdown value I'm in a spot, as a push all-in is likely to be called given pot size and the fact he's got enough to call two bets

Faced with two unappetising options I push in, monster dwell eventually called with a sigh by  5c 5d to claim the pot


OK, so I am opening myself up for oppobrium here. Never mind my skin is thick. Opening up one's game comes with these problems huh?

Please critically appraise the hand post flop.





Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: AndrewT on January 26, 2009, 11:59:08 AM
Isn't the problem here just

[  ] Three barreling live £1/£2 poker players is a good idea.

Also, as an aside does 'Great if you are hitting hands, frustrating if a little out of form' just mean that out of form = unlucky. I've always wondered what poker players are referring to when they talk about 'form' - from the context it always seems that they're referring to luck, and not identifying as luck something which is just luck seems a leak.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: bolt pp on January 26, 2009, 11:59:17 AM
dont bluff live EVER

i tried it once in the summer of 2005 and again around christmas time niether of which worked, i had another go late 2006 which didnt get through either.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TheChipPrince on January 26, 2009, 12:03:23 PM
First of all, a very well worded post, simple, clear and easy to get a feel of things.

I dont really like the flop raise, fine if your semi-bluffing with some sort of draw, but you nothing, diddly-squat, best card comes down a 9, you still have no idea where you are really.

If you really do fancy the raise, i'm shutting down once he calls, and not putting anymore into the pot on this one.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Newmanseye on January 26, 2009, 12:06:57 PM
As played I think you didnt lay out the sequence too badly for the player to follow, With 55 imho he should be folding to the flop reraise however he stayed in.

Only problem i see is the river, you know he wont fold for the £80 back, he has invested too much not " to see" you at this point, check behind is the only thin i do differently here, His call on the tun confirms he is seeing the river btw. IMO anyway

either this chap had a great read on you or he was frustrated and decided he was seeing this hand to the end.



Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: byronkincaid on January 26, 2009, 12:08:17 PM
Quote
Hero makes it £50 repping a made hand like overpair

you raise 99 here? if so what do you do if he reraises?



Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 12:09:58 PM
Isn't the problem here just

[  ] Three barreling live £1/£2 poker players is a good idea.

Also, as an aside does 'Great if you are hitting hands, frustrating if a little out of form' just mean that out of form = unlucky. I've always wondered what poker players are referring to when they talk about 'form' - from the context it always seems that they're referring to luck, and not identifying as luck something which is just luck seems a leak.


fair enough. I was simply referring to the fact in that session the dispersion of starting hands/post flop situations wasn't that promising over that short sample. 

Obviously I then tried to make something happen, which in itself increases variance.

I think I picked my player right, or maybe not. Either way, I am asking if the story I told had "holes". If not, maybe I have easy reads or was just out-played.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: bolt pp on January 26, 2009, 12:11:04 PM
Quote
Hero makes it £50 repping a made hand like overpair

you raise 99 here? if so what do you do if he reraises?



bare in mind if the words: "info" and "fold" are included in the answer flushy will beat you to death with a 24 DVD box set.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 12:11:37 PM
Quote
Hero makes it £50 repping a made hand like overpair

you raise 99 here? if so what do you do if he reraises?



I think I do raise 99 there yes versus that player. That was what I was conveying, or trying to

If he then shoves well of course the bluff has failed there and then

Thinking out loud perhaps I failed to accurately peg his range of  hand post flop or post turn.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: byronkincaid on January 26, 2009, 12:14:11 PM
Quote
think I do raise 99 there yes versus that player. That was what I was conveying, or trying to

If he then shoves well of course the bluff has failed there and then

so you're saying you would turn 99 into a bluff?


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 12:19:42 PM
Quote
think I do raise 99 there yes versus that player. That was what I was conveying, or trying to

If he then shoves well of course the bluff has failed there and then

so you're saying you would turn 99 into a bluff?

I see. I would then wouldn't I?


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: AndrewT on January 26, 2009, 12:19:55 PM
Isn't the problem here just

[  ] Three barreling live £1/£2 poker players is a good idea.

Also, as an aside does 'Great if you are hitting hands, frustrating if a little out of form' just mean that out of form = unlucky. I've always wondered what poker players are referring to when they talk about 'form' - from the context it always seems that they're referring to luck, and not identifying as luck something which is just luck seems a leak.


fair enough. I was simply referring to the fact in that session the dispersion of starting hands/post flop situations wasn't that promising over that short sample. 

Obviously I then tried to make something happen, which in itself increases variance.

I think I picked my player right, or maybe not. Either way, I am asking if the story I told had "holes". If not, maybe I have easy reads or was just out-played.

If this was a tournament then, yes, 'making something happen' would be a good idea if things weren't going your way. But on a live cash table 'full of aggressive spewy types' I think a better idea is just to sit there and wait for the money to get redistributed your way. Boring, yes, but I think it's the thing to do.

Also, seeing as villain called three streets with an underpair, I don't think you did pick your player right. He called the turn (a turn which changed nothing) after a huge dwell; I don't think he put you on a bluff - he just wasn't good enough to let his 55 go.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: gribbo on January 26, 2009, 12:26:23 PM
I think you would have been much better re raising preflop with the hand tbh and this would have had a much stronger effect than calling from the button then firing two shells. Also with a hand like 88/99 if you are raising this flop are you not gona be checking behind a lot on the turn for pot control and incase the guy has hit trips or has you beat.

I think the guy makes an easy call on the flop with 55 tbh not 100% of the call on the turn and all lot of the time he is going to hero call you on the river for £80.

I have never played with you, but from reading your posts on here you seem to have a very tight solid image and that combined with the dead money from the cold caller and the fact you are on the button im sure your taking this pot down a high % of the time re raising preflop and if called firing the flop/turn.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Newmanseye on January 26, 2009, 12:30:39 PM
One question Tighty, Why not Overbet the pot on the turn and shove?

Now as i see it, it would look that you are reading him for the over pair and you expect the call from a shove on the turn.

If he thinks through it he may lay down to that  then again he may not. its all a wee bit meta at this point.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: byronkincaid on January 26, 2009, 12:35:54 PM
Quote
think I do raise 99 there yes versus that player. That was what I was conveying, or trying to

If he then shoves well of course the bluff has failed there and then

so you're saying you would turn 99 into a bluff?

I see. I would then wouldn't I?

i think to raise 99 with these stacks on that flop you either have to be a very very good player or a fish. makes it so much easier for the average player to be polarised, in fact if your op has a clue he called you down because you ought to be polarised.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: gatso on January 26, 2009, 12:38:27 PM
your river bet baffles me. you know that he's calling you here, you know you're going to showdown with air so instead of cutting your losses you decide to chuck away nearly 1/2 a buyin.

if you're going to throw away that £80 I prefer to do what billy says and overbet shove the turn and at least give yourself a chance of winning the pot


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 12:48:07 PM

if you're going to throw away that £80 I prefer to do what billy says and overbet shove the turn and at least give yourself a chance of winning the pot

Yes.

Quite cathartic posting mangled hands and half baked thought processes


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: GreekStein on January 26, 2009, 01:04:37 PM
Flop raise I actually don't mind tighty. I might raise there in a live game with a set too.

I don't think you had a plan other than 'I'm gonna bluff this donk'. I think you went wrong with the £100 on the turn. I would have bet more like £65 to make it look more like value and give ourselves a much better chance of having him fold when we pump the river and he has over £100 behind. Once he's put £150 in and has £80 back he isnt folding even if he knows he's beat.



Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Longy on January 26, 2009, 03:19:27 PM
You are repping a very small range on this board, I mean we are pretty repping flopped sets and 56s, that is about it. Of course whether that matters against most live players who will rarely look beyond their own cards never mind considering your range.

As others have said i think you are pretty much throwing away every penny you put in on this river, as you get called close to 100% of the time here. Due to the pot size compared to your stack.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 03:21:24 PM
You are repping a very small range on this board, I mean we are pretty repping flopped sets and 56s, that is about it. Of course whether that matters against most live players who will rarely look beyond their own cards never mind considering your range.

As others have said i think you are pretty much throwing away every penny you put in on this river, as you get called close to 100% of the time here. Due to the pot size compared to your stack.


why is not repping an overpair?


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: EvilPie on January 26, 2009, 03:27:04 PM
I think both of you played it badly on the turn.

If you knew that you were bluffing the river as well then as has been previously said you should be shoving the turn.

If villain knows that he's calling the river even if he misses his gut shot he should shove the turn as well.

You really needed to assess both stacks before making your move on the turn. A little bit of logic suggests that you shouldn't bluff off more than half your stack on the turn because you know you're getting called on the river if your oppo calls the turn.

£60 - £70 on the turn leaves oppo with around £110 on the river which gives him more incentive to pass when you confidently shove.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Longy on January 26, 2009, 03:30:09 PM
You are repping a very small range on this board, I mean we are pretty repping flopped sets and 56s, that is about it. Of course whether that matters against most live players who will rarely look beyond their own cards never mind considering your range.

As others have said i think you are pretty much throwing away every penny you put in on this river, as you get called close to 100% of the time here. Due to the pot size compared to your stack.


why is not repping an overpair?

Well you would 3 bet some of that range lets say jj+ and you have said you would 3bet 99, so that leaves 88 no? Would you really fire 3 bullets in this spot with a weak overpair?


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2009, 03:35:12 PM
my reply to gatso referred to the fact that I would raise 99 post flop (not necesarily pre) after his c-bet.

thanks though, plenty to chew over.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: AlexMartin on January 26, 2009, 11:36:11 PM

i echo chipprince, well worded op.

on this board id much rather float with a view to bluffraising the turn/barreling turn and river given stacks and ability to rep a wider range.

if u decide bluffraising the flop is best, raise more on the flop so you can shove on the turn.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: celtic on January 26, 2009, 11:42:54 PM
its your LAG rep that gets you called here.

You are known as looseEnd amongst some at Luton.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: MC on January 26, 2009, 11:51:17 PM
I make a bunch of these kind of raises heads up, but if a bad card comes on the turn, I'm more inclined to give it up cold...

The turn is such a big blank. An 8, 9 or T and you actually have some kind of hand. But also with any Jack-Ace firing might have been the way to go. This is like the worst card to do this with though.

Same on the river really. You can't really make any hand fold the river with yet another bad card, so it hurts, but I'm giving up even though so committed to the bluff...


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: totalise on January 27, 2009, 12:41:59 AM
I think your line assuming you made the decision on the flop to try and steal this pot by the river is the best one.

the frequency with which they call £100 on the turn compared to the frequency with which they call £180 allin (or whatever the exact amount is)  on the turn is gonna be close to linear, but when you leave some back to bet on the river, at least you give yourself a chance to win the pot on the river by making them fold all their whiffed shitty draws, that beat 9 high,  which you wont get a chance to do if you stack off on the turn. Yes, we always get called by made hands that called the turn, but I think we always get called by them on the turn anyways when we jam, IF they would call the hundo bet, so its not like you lose a lot, but the times they have that crappy whiffed draw, you at least give them a chance to fold the river when they miss.

Personally,  I think the best way to play this hand is to just fold the flop first time round and choose a board with a more dangerous texture, but if you are insistent on making a move, flat the flop and then give yourself more leverage on the turn/river.



Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Blatch on January 27, 2009, 04:23:23 AM
What you normally do with say 10/10 or JJ on the button in this situation?  WOuld you really flat call the £8 raise after other callers or would you re raise?

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 27, 2009, 10:05:44 AM

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?

As I explained in the OP, I had two unpalatable options on the river. Check it down and stand no chance of winning the pot with a considerable amount invested or fire again with little prospect of not being called

As explained to me subsequently this is because of combinations of a) bad flop play/reraise too small b) no shove on turn giving him a chance to pass


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Blatch on January 27, 2009, 10:22:32 AM

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?

As I explained in the OP, I had two unpalatable options on the river. Check it down and stand no chance of winning the pot with a considerable amount invested or fire again with little prospect of not being called

As explained to me subsequently this is because of combinations of a) bad flop play/reraise too small b) no shove on turn giving him a chance to pass

Ok when you say little prospect chance of being called how little do you think?

Was it about £80 you had left?  I cant remember the exact figure but: -

a) you check, you have 0% of winning pot but 100% of keeping 80 = £80 in hand

b) you bet £80 and have 10% chance making him fold = ES of £46

To make it a profitable play you need to be pretty certain you can get your opponent to fold about 17% of the time, which im not sure you can.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: TightEnd on January 27, 2009, 10:26:01 AM

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?

As I explained in the OP, I had two unpalatable options on the river. Check it down and stand no chance of winning the pot with a considerable amount invested or fire again with little prospect of not being called

As explained to me subsequently this is because of combinations of a) bad flop play/reraise too small b) no shove on turn giving him a chance to pass

Ok when you say little prospect chance of being called how little do you think?

Was it about £80 you had left?  I cant remember the exact figure but: -

a) you check, you have 0% of winning pot but 100% of keeping 80 = £80 in hand

b) you bet £80 and have 10% chance making him fold = ES of £46

To make it a profitable play you need to be pretty certain you can get your opponent to fold about 17% of the time, which im not sure you can.


Agreed.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: snoopy1239 on January 27, 2009, 10:57:59 PM
Well, I admire your bravery, both in terms of three barrelling and having the guts to post the hand here. For the bluff to work, though, we need to make sure that our opponent is aware and willing to act accordingly to the image we have thus far portrayed, and, if he does have this acknowledged, still be able to lay down a hand. It would seem here, that this is simply not the case, especially when you yourself term the table as "full of aggressive spewy types" which can affect even the most 'sensible' of players.

I don't think there's much wrong with your play apart from perhaps this not being the best opportunity to make your big bluff. If a scare card had hit the turn, then maybe so, but because it pairs a raggy card, hands that he can call a raise on the flop with can still be tempted into continuing on fourth and fifth street. I don't think your turn bet looks much like a house, so you're basically representing 8-8, 9-9, T-T with bigger pairs expected to repop preflop. Once he dwells and calls, I think he's made a decision for the river too, so you have to swallow it up and check.

Again, I don't think your line is terrible in theory, it's just that board is so ragtastic that it's a big risk on a stonecold bluff and you don't have a particularly reason for making this the hand where you put your stack on the line. Against a better player, you may get away with it as your range doesn't seem to include too many bluffs, but he obviously wasn't the strongest of players and seemed to make a guess on the turn. Sounds like you're better off just playing a solid, patient game if the table is as described. Whatever your image, you should still get paid.


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Ismene on February 01, 2009, 05:38:59 PM
For what it's worth - and i doubt very much having read the replies by everyone else - I think Blatch describes the thinking of a cash player -  i.e.£80 in hand.

Your process seems to be that of a tournament player - in that if he sees me put the last of my chips in he will HAVE to believe he's beat...

Is it one of the fundamentals that make cash and tournament players so different i don't know - but the "Poker" logic of a cash player is infinitely polarised to that of the tournament player in so many instances - and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....

I'm not saying never play cash - I'm just saying maybe your familiar lines that you take in tournaments won't rep as well in cash play - and it's something to think about....

Feel free to disagree tho ;-)



Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: byronkincaid on February 01, 2009, 05:46:20 PM
I agree with you apart from

Quote
and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....

most people who are excellent cash players could be good at tournaments if they choose to be.



Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: Ismene on February 01, 2009, 06:01:03 PM
I agree with you apart from

Quote
and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....

most people who are excellent cash players could be good at tournaments if they choose to be.



Excellence is defined by the very top percentile right? ;)


Title: Re: Bluffing goes wrong
Post by: byronkincaid on February 01, 2009, 06:20:15 PM
I agree with you apart from

Quote
and the fact that IMO there are very few who are good at both....

most people who are excellent cash players could be good at tournaments if they choose to be.



Excellence is defined by the very top percentile right? ;)


well tbh I think that anyone who is good at 100BB cash could pwn tournaments if they wished to but whether they want to play high frustration/variance/repeatedly get kicked in the nuts on the bubble crapshoots is another matter