blonde poker forum

I saw this hand in a Live Tourney, & I thought it played out very interestingly.

I'm interested in what you'd do if you were our Hero, and why.

If you know what happened, or have heard, please don't reveal, yet.

Tomorrow, I'll do the Reveal, & the reasons given for the play. And I'll send a Link to our Hero, (a well-known blonde) who, I hope, will comment on the play.

Here's the context.

Main Event Final, 5 left I think. Big money to the winner, and a very top heavy prize-structure. (Top three get £54k, £32k, £18k, or similar).

Blinds are about 6k-12k, RA 500, 5 players left (all approx), average stack about 450k. But one player has over half the chips at this moment.

It's unlikely that the Chip Leader, or our Hero, wants to cut a Deal, both are very clearly going for the outright win, or so it appears.

The stack distribution is (something like) 1.1 million, 100k, 460k, 250k, & 300k. Our hero has 460k.

2nd to speak, the shortie (100k) shoves. Could be atc, (obviously).

Our Hero, next to act, has Jacks.

What did he do, & why?

2 answers, please.

A). Pass, Call or Shove all-in?

B) Why?

Shove.  To isolate and avoid giving yourself migraine like decisions if any others tag along for the ride and fire out a flop bet on a flop we havent remotely hit...

So chip leader with 1.1m has passed? He's first to act according to the order of stacks you give

I'm guessing he passed the hand, fully expecting to be well ahead of the shortie, but wanting to exploit the bubble type scenario that was evolving to get to that lucrative 3rd place or better pay out. He reasons that if he can keep the short stack alive, he can accumulate a significant portion more than that 100k of the shorties chips from the the 250 and 300k stacks while they try and hold out to 3rd.

I quite like both Chippie's and Dave's thoughts. Especially young Mr Shoelace's thinking I quite like..though I probably shove to isolate here. (Like Tighty I am assuming chip daddy already passed)

surely the standard play is to iso-shove, way ahead of shortstack's range and knowing the other two have to have monsters to get involved. So he can't have done that

does he flat to get one of the two medium stacks to squeeze?

Folding to exploit the bubble is certainly still an udervalued concpet in poker, I'm not convinced that this situation suits it particularly well though. The big CL if he plays well can obstruct our stealing from the shorties quite effectively and should actually target us to steal from as the second stack.

If we only have eyes for first place and the big stack hasn't acted lets flat call and hope he sets us in, he is likely to do this with a range of hands that we dominate.
 

In the context of the question, it's not relevant Rich.

I can't actually recall if the Chip Daddy had Passed UTG, or was BB. For the purposes of your thoughts, ignore him.

What is this bubble ppl are talking about, surely we are ITM just a top heavy prize structure.

Iso shove looks like the super standard play here.

In these situations as the 2nd chippy we are the ones who normally get exploited, by not wanting to risk our whole stack against the cl. As we have the most to lose by clashing with him.

Obv tikays reveal isn't going to involve iso shoving.

Agree, I don't see much way around shoving here...

We're way ahead of shorties range and we're basically forcing the blinds to pick up only 6 hands we don't want to see AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, KQ ... and they're passing KQ and probs AQ. They don't pick up those 4 hands any where near often enough to consider passing.

Calling is dangerous cos you don't want the blinds iso-raising behind you, and we're surely committed to calling at least the 250k stack if this happens anyway getting over 3 to 1? So might as well shove if we're calling one of the 2 remaining stacks regardless...

If they have a hand that beats us then they're getting them in behind our shove anyway. If we have them dominated then by calling we get their chips some of the time when they shove with hands we dominate like AJ,A10,1010,99, Calling is > than shoving here.

Deffo Iso shove imo

Interesting point...but do we really want a 30% hand in there when we have a good shot at taking down a nice pot against a random(ish) hand?

Surely getting rid of AQ, and you never know possibly even AK too much of an advantage to flat call?

Nobody should be folding AK behind our shove here, we aren't delighted if they have KQ or AQ but we are ahead of both of these hands (if os about 54-46) and they don't have these hands often enough to make it a problem. The more I think about I can't get away from the call being comfortably the best play.

deffo flat and hope chip leader abuses the scenario and snap him off imo.

we can't just ignore the chip leader. either the only person who covers us has passed or they're still to act from the BB, these are 2 very different scenarios

In the context of the question, gatso, trust me, IGNORE the Chip Leader, it's got nothing to do with what happened, or, more importantly, why. Assume he's still in, if you want - it matters not to what happened next........

The hand was played a specific way, for a specific reason - one that I'd never heard before. It seemed to me to be very educational, hence the Thread. Hero is, by the way, a very successful Pro, so I thought it worth chewing the cud on the hand. Everyone who saw the play was "surprised", & nobody at the venue guessed correctly as to why he played it as he did.

Almost everyone, by the way, is wrong as to what he done. One Poster is very much on the right track, though he does not have the right (or more correctly, actual), reasons.

Think outside the traditional box.

So he didn't fold, call or shove???

Does this mean he min raised? isn't that tantamount to shoving tho?

I never said that James. I said "almost" everyone got it wrong, as to what he done. "Why" is more important though.

Lol ok hehe

Barry must be right when he said folding then? I'd be interested to know why he mucked here if that's the case...

shortstack accidentally showed QQ to hero?

I'm well confused

So we've established he folded, I'm looking forward to the reveal. Tony do you think hero misplayed the hand?

Did he pass due to the fact he's pos 50/50 with 100k and the calling range of both other smaller stacks are bigger pp only thus he determind it was a fold ???

+1 At being well confused lol

Flat call in hopes that either

A) the other shorties would attempt a push after, which I'm deffo calling

or

B) if there are any other flat callers, it'll be checked down (if there isn't a monster made hand with the board) in hopes of knocking out the all in player and jumping up the pay ladder.

Sigh.....

1) Read the thread properly James!

2) Think outside the box. Our man did.

Everyone seems fixated by "Raise to isolate". Why?

I'm not saying his play was good, or bad. But I thought the logic behind it was interesting, because it's sometimes useful to challenge traditional thinking.
 

No we have NOT!

Where did I say that?

And you, of all people - the only one who, so far, has even remotely got the right idea.

If we were judging now, you'd be outright winner. You, & you alone, are on the right lines.

Absolutely, guaranteed, NOT.

But I'd never have played it that way, nor, I suspect, most (all?) others. Which is why I Posted it.

I was watching it with a good friend of his, who completely misread the coup. We all did - except our man.

And watch what you say, because I am going to ask him to comment on the Thread, later. ;)

My apologies Tony, I thought because of the only one person has it comment, we must be passing. I'm much happier if we're calling. I can't really think of an additional reason beyond the fact that this is the only way we get chips out of the players still to act if they have worse hands, if they are ahead of us the chips are going in anyway.

Does he flat in the hope of encouraging a push from one of the other stacks that he has covered?

Level?

[ x ] feels stupid
[ x ] has realised he flat called
[ x ] wishes Tikay would tell us hero's reasoning
[  ] needed an empty box for effect

Flat calling also tells the rest of the table you have a damn good hand here and they'd better have a monster if they want to tangle.

Could just be the greatest lol

Well done, correct, we are smoothing.

But not, even remotely, for the reasons you suggest.

No, wrong reason.

But he DID get a push, from behind, from the guy with 295k.

To pass if someone shoves?  ;carlocitrone;

Nope.

Is he a mime artist?

Someone DID decide to "tangle"......

Did he flat because he, for some strange reason based on reads on his table, actually wanted the short stack to double or triple up if someone squeezed behind him?

No, that was NOT really why he smoothed. Expand upon it, please. For example, WHY would he Raise to Isolate, given all the facts you have?

did he flat call to encourage more players into the hand- given that he wants to go on and win the whole tourney- i.e top heavy structure. he's hoping for a reshove in essence as JJ 5 handed is a super strong hand and with a virtual treble though puts him on course to get there by knocking out not one but 2 players?

No Barry, it has nothing to do with reads", "tells", or chip stack/prize pool dynamics. Nothing at all.

It is, to the player involved, a standard play in this spot, because, he reasons that, at this stage of a Main Event Final........

Did he call because the guy to his immediate left was telling a long joke he had already heard, but he did not have the heart to tell him he had heard it and it wasn't that funny anyway, so instead he called the bet in the hopes that it would give this jabber mouth a decision to make and thus, distract him from telling the joke?

lol...

No, he certainly did not wish to encourage more players into the hand.

Nor did he want a re-shove. But he got one.

is that the one about the penguin??

No - but your best effort yet....;)

did he pass and then when one of the other shorties shoved stand on his seat and shout laddddddddddddddddddeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr?

Please tell me when you say tomorrow, you mean one minute past midnight.   ;D

Did he call to make his hand look stronger (discouraging the shove), knowing that because of his image (or whatever) only QQ+ pushes behind him, meaning he can get away from the hand when he knows he's beat?

[  ] I feel confident with this reasoning.

No Way he flat calls and folds after unless he's seen enough from the tangle person in previous hands to suggest a fold.  

Did he wake up and it was all a dream?

Try to think about......

1) WHY we Raise to Isolate, in this type of situation.

2) And then, consider if the standard reasons for Iso-Raising are appropriate at THIS Stage of a Main Event Final, with these stacks.

It's deviant thinking, & it may be well wrong, but it set my mind thinking. It's deffo not ABC thinking, as I know it, anyway.

Everyone who heard the tale afterwards was surprised by our mans logic train. And most - not all - agreed.

My jury is out, on it, but I liked the thinking. But then I'm a super-nit. He is most certainly not!

were the jacks that he had not cards at all but the funny things shaped like caltrops from the game with the bouncy ball?

Was it so in future situations he could flat call with marginal hands without having to iso shove.

Example: Another shortie shoves, he dwells and called with A9 KNOWING someone has to have him beat when they reshove because he's flatted with a huge hand like JJ?

My head hurts.

+1

Sorry Dawn. He DID flat-call, & then Fold.

Several peeps arond the Table, including James Akenhead, then named the re-shovers hand precisely. And got our mans hand completely wrong!

So does that mean this reason above is correct??

P.s I dont think you can wait another 47 minutes to reveal- we're all tired(well I am) and want to go to bed!!!

is the final analysis going to be results orientated? I think I'll cry if it is

He must have seen enough in previous hands to say he folded then.  Race at best and ladder to boot.  

No, wrong reason.

I'm busy, PTP-ing right now (down to last 3 in the BH), so I'll reveal all when I'm finished my PTP session, just after midnight.

The logic is not really related to the Result. Well it is, but not in the way you are implying. Win or lose, his logic remains the same at this stage of any Event.

Disturbing visions of Tikay giggling mad right now.  Sigh. 

We were all having such fun last week when you weren't here.

It has NOTHING to do with previous History, or Laddering.

Well feck me.  If it has nothing to do with either of those, this should be interesting.

I know, I know......

So he called knowing someone must have a huge hand to shove behind him and then passed because the other guy had the boots?

Once you've done this once won't you be vulnerable to people exploiting it and shoving with a wide range? You'll have AA a lot less than you'll have JJ-KK, AK etc...

I'm with Spike on this one.

Well you are both wrong.

Reveal shortly.

edit - forget it, Bongo already posted my theory

We're getting older by the minute and you're definitely not getting younger.  Type faster man or I may be forced to book my retirement home with wifi access.

I want to go to bed, tell us the answer!

Well, firstly, here are the bare facts.

It was The Broadway Main Event, £1k Entry, at The Broadway, yesterday (Sunday). I was there for"In-Poker", so you can see the various interviews from Thursday, on Channel 865.

The short-stacked shover was Sandeep Shah, (100k) who had 7-8.

The smooth with JJ Man - our Man - was Karl Marhenholz. (Dry Em). His total stack was about 450k.

The shover behind was John Eames (295k, or it may have been 295k more, on top of the 100k). John had K-K, & Karl Passed.

I was stood tableside with James Akenhead, who, if anyone, would know Karl's range here.

James said to me "John Eames has K-K, minimum, guaranteed. Karl has something like A-J, or 7-7".

When it became known that Karl had Jacks, James said "no way, well I deffo go broke on that hand, because I jam".  And I think most of us do.

So I asked Karl about the reason for smoothing. And he said, words to the effect.....

"Traditional thinking is to Jam here, "Raise to Isolate", because if you don't, someone is likely to get funky behind you & try some fancy-dan move. But I don't believe that kite flies at this juncture - 5 left, in a Main Event Final, where the stack sizes are all a bit light (Monster Chip Daddy excepted), I see no need to RTI - all I am doing is exposing myself to a better hand. Because at this stage, with these stacks, for this huge prize-money, players almost never get funky"......

I am not arguing for or against - but Karl knows how many beans make five, & has a tidy Live record, so it's worth, perhaps, dwelling on his logic.

As to the suggestion that it's exploitable - I doubt it would happen often enough, at that stage, in a ME Final, with 5 left.

"Kush" was the one who got closest, soonest - he was right to say "I Call ONLY - deffo", though he never, perhaps, explained the "why" as Karl did.

By the bye, the Winner was Andy Bradshaw, who I never saw lose a single hand in the Final. He even managed a chop with 5-2 v two randow overs, when it double-paired with an Ace! The Tourney just had his name on it, as sometimes happens.

So, hands up, who goes broke here? And is it correct to go broke here?

From me, I do, & yes. Or would have done, before I saw this coup.

I'll ask Karl to comment on Thread soonest.

I think most go broke here cept for someone like Neil (Blatch) who obv spikes the Jack on the river

Yup.

But do you think there is merit to Karl's take on this? He was playing for serious money, & if he dodges that bullet now & then, it might well be worth big money - which is to be set against the (few) times he jams & walks into a bigger hand, of course.

I do agree with his thinking dependant on who's on the final. He is obv a very sick and accomplished player and would know his audience.

Obv if he's at a table with Flushy, Dubai, Colclough, De Wolfe who MAY re shove with a weaker hands at this stage to exploit the flat call.

The more I think about the more the check/fold is a good line cos obv very few may be bluffing in this spot. Ultimately everyone wants the short stack out- however does depend on how wide shorty is shoving.

My head hurts.

WP Karl!

does a view on his take not depend on what we regard as someone getting "funky" or not?

Is shorty shoving, Karl calling with JJ and a medium stack shoving with 99 funky by the medium stack?

what about if the medium stack shoves over a push and a flat call with AQ? is that funky?

Is Karl not in effect merely saying that the medium stacks here are tight/solid (and therefore will shove with QQ-AA,AK maybe, only) so he knows that funkiness is unlikely, in this particular table dynamic. Put two more aggressive players with the medium stacks and surely the traditional iso-shove is a better bet as the likelihood of either medium stack beating JJ pre is v low so its best to isolate, take out shorty and move on up

Very interesting play and situation here though

Not trying to speak on behalf of Karl (sure he'll do that himself) but I think hand ranges such as those mentioned above 99-66 AQ-Aj etc he would perhaps expect the villain to flat and check it down to eliminate the shorty?

Well yes - but he was not. The Table at that stage was pretty much A-B-C, the winner apart, who just ran like God.

I think we're completely overstating an isolation play, on two counts.

Firstly, the call is an isolating call. The shove from the short stack is not for 3 times the big blind, but 8. You will almost definitely find yourself heads up as you want to be, unless someone has you beat.

The reason behind an isolation shove has logically got to be one of two:

1) To bluff other players off a stronger hand, and get heads up against the short stack. Obviously, there is no worth here with jacks, where every hand that beats you will call.
2) To ensure weaker hands do not have the odds to call to outdraw you. This is not the case where the shove is 8 x the big blind, and the remaining stacks are short.

Secondly, there is almost zero need to worry about an opponent pulling a funky isolation re-raise on you after your flat call. Karl's call looks so strong that no one is going to get funky; in fact, people are probably going to worry he is stronger than he is, as this would be a good flat call with aces, right?

 I think this is almost irrespective of the table; people do just not pull the re-isolation move all-in as some kind of funky bluff. Bear in mind that they are bluffing a dry pot- they have to show their hand down and beat the short stack.

Therefore, Karl can call, and if someone else moves all-in, he can be pretty sure that they have AA-QQ, and maybe just sometimes ace-king. If they sometimes bluff you off a race against AK, it's a sacrifice worth making for the possibility of dodging the overpair.

Wow. Are you Karl?

Perfectly summed up, to mirror Karl's thought process.

So, Stu, can we assume you smooth here, too?

stu u in the well again?

If you were the stack behind Karl what would u do with AJ, AQ, AK. 66-10 10?

Yep, I flat with jacks. I think I move in with AA and KK; it depends on the table, but in general I think people will see a flat call as stronger than a re-raise.

Not sure what all the fuss is here. He was just playing like a girl, it seems like the right and obv move in my book. It's how i would have played it. cautious.

Good question, that's basically what it hinges on. I would read the flat call from Karl as having to be strong with three players behind him; I would put Karl on a range of (88-AA, AQ, AK) and therefore I would pass 1010, and move in with ace-king.

 I am probably tighter than most here, the big question is, what would the field do? Can we trust them to pass 99 and 1010? Karl might well have been delaying his decision on his opponent, and whether he can trust them to understand the implied strength of his flat call. However, even if our opponent is going to ship tens, we are still right to pass JJ against a range of (1010-AA, AK).

I still think that there are only two good options here; flat-call in order to pass to an all-in, or flat-call in order to call. An isolation re-shove cannot make any sense.

And there you have it.

Note there was almost universal "OMG, he HAS to shove here" early in the Thread, & I do think that's most players default in ths spot.

sorry, just to put this in context. there are 5 left. the average is 40bb. Shover has 8bb. Karl is calling with a wide range of hands id imagine against a desperate shortstack with a healthy stack and understands ranges for open shoving 5 handed. Some people are getting a bit carried away imo. Still, vwp karl, looks like his reasoning was basically- my opponents are not good enough to make a huge move on me here, so i can get away with a call. I bet if the table makeup was more aggro he would say he would iso. If ur playing an mtt, u play it to win, regardless of the money at stake surely (i mean aslong as ur comfortable and the moneys not lifechanging)?
please comment karl.

Oh, believe me, he WAS playing to win. If I suggested otherwise (& I don't believe I did) I apologise.

I agree with the circumstances, but I think the calling range second to speak is still pretty tight.

Do you think it's right to re-shove nines in the seat of Karl's opponent?  I think you would make a good pass with nines.

Are you going to be around in Walsall mate? Will be good to see you, we're heading out into town on Saturday if you're around.

I really think call to call is the optimal line here, it goes without saying that we have to forget his opponent had KK this time (although karl as Alex says obv makes a good opponent specific play in this instance). Calling to fold is so exploitable for the reasons G2L and Alex have alluded to, his opponents can shove behind with hands that we dominate legitimately believing they are ahead, assigning Karl a similar range to what James did.

If we call to call we get our chips in against better hands that are still to act some of the time and worse hands some of the time, if we shove we only we only get our chips in against better hands. The argument against this is perhaps that our opponents still to act appear to have no fold equity, an interesting element of the hand given how it played out.

I have PM'd a link to this thread to Karl, asking him if he would care to comment, & I'll see him tonight & ask him personally. I hope he agrees - I thought it was a pretty interesting Hand, & thread.

Thanks for a great deal of interesting feedback.

I see a lot of these hands in the course of attending/watching/commentating ME Finals at all Levls - Big Buck Buy-in, APAT, Sky, Fun Events, etc, & I'll try & Post a few more as they arise.

Oops, Karl is on thread.

What's the under/over on how many faccts I got wrong?

Time to make myself scarce. ;)

Here is what Karl said on the excellent & always honest Hit Squad Blog......

Down to 5 handed, the short stack pushed utg for 105k at 8k 16k 1k and I called in the next seat with JJ. My total stack at this point was around 420k. John Eames then overshoved for an additional 200k which was surprising as not only had he been playing quite snug but in this kind of situation everyone else usually gets out of the way fairly quickly. There was about 350k in the pot and it was 200k to call, leaving me 100k behind if I called and lost. If he showed me AK I'd be making a terrible laydown but I decided fold was best in this spot after weighing everything up, and his Kings held propelling him into second and leaving me 4/4 but still with chips to play with.

The full entry can be seen here.....

http://www.pokerhitsquad.com/

Bear with me as this is far too early in the morning to be thinking too hard...

My thinking is very much similar to Stu's, mixed in with the specific dynamics of the situation that only those playing the table would know. Blinds are 800/1600/1000 and shorty shoves utg for 105k. I have 440k (ish) and have all but the monster stack (in the big blind) covered by about 100k. The standard opening raise at this level has been between 35k-45k

The two points which I considered before deciding call was the right play was

(1) The amount of the raise is significant enough to ensure that by calling, I don't price anyone else in

(2) 5 handed on a final table, most players (and for most read specifically all the one on this table, and most live players who will be playing these events) are all desperate  for someone to get eliminated. Stacks were quite closely bunched and no one, apart from the monster chip leader, was guaranteed a podium finish and the bigger money. I was therefore under no doubt that no one would be looking to squeeze me out of the pot

The third major factor, and this is obviously not going to be picked up on by anyone not there at the time, was the way in which I called. Shorty shoves, I'm next to act, I look at my cards, then look at the dealer and say "I call". I'm not looking round the table at the other stack sizes (I know what they are mentally), I'm not sitting there dwelling for 30 seconds agonising if AJ is a call with all the people still behind me. It's obvious I have a big hand.

AQ and below and 10s and below are, in my mind, a clear and obvious fold for everyone behind me. Sure someone may look at 10s and be agonised but most will fold. Sure AK (for most ppl) has to shove behind me, but remember I still get the option to at least try to get a read on how they react to the situation before anyone does reshove. In this instance, when action got to John there was no dwelling, no agonising it was a simple "i'm all in" said in a tone that is hard for me to describe here but that conveyed the message of how standard it was for him to be reshoving here, not wow my hand is marginal here but I'm going to shove over the top of your "weakness"

When action was back on me I had to call 200k into a 350k pot, which would leave me around 100k back if I called and lost (enough to shove a few times with and have a shot of a comeback). Another thought that went through my mind was that if I fold, I'm going to be more or less 4/4 assuming shorty goes out. If I call and John does have AA/KK and I lose then hopefully John's hand will stand up against shorty and then I'll still be 4/4 albeit with a shoving stack...so maybe I should gamble?

This was by no means an auto fold because given the pot odds I was being offered, if I fold and he shows me AK I'll have made a big mistake but a combination of all of the above lead me to make the laydown, an option I wouldn't even have had if i'd just have auto-shoved in the first place

I'm quite surprised Tikay has made this thread, please don't think that I think this is some super high level concept that only I would ever have thought of - to me it's very standard, but am happy to explain my thought process upon being asked

Incidentally I was duely rewarded for not going broke here by going out 4th anyway. gg.

Edit - oh yes one last point, for anyone who says calling here is "exploitable" is thinking mainly about online play where people are much more likely to make this resqueeze play to create great pot odds for themselves against the shorties range. Online you are also more likely to find yourself short handed with the same couple of players a few times over. There was nothing further from my mind than how my play here could be "exploited" in future events, it's simply not relevant in this context (just my opinion of course)

Thanks Karl.

As to......

I'm quite surprised Tikay has made this thread, please don't think that I think this is some super high level concept that only I would ever have thought of - to me it's very standard,

Yes, "pretty standard" to you - but the tale of the Thread, early on especially,  suggests it is NOT pretty standard to most.

And that's why we all enjoy the PHA so much.

reminds me a bit of those situations when a footballer is taking a penalty and everyone is guessing whether he will hit it to the left or the right, and instead, he just calmly chips it into the middle - when it comes off the penalty taker looks like a genius, but when it doesnt and the goalie just stands there he looks like a chump.

Really interesting to hear your thoughts Karl. I agree, I think the idea of a meta-game and something being "exploitable" can be way over emphasised in live poker.

Almost no live player is looking to exploit a situation where a player can be knocked out for five to become four. In fact, I think live players are far too passive and far too "honest" in this situation, and often do not make other moves that they should.

There is no need  to worry that in the long run this play will be exploitable. How many times is he going to be in the final five of a tournament with any of these guys? I'm sure his range is pretty tight to call and probably includes AA and KK too, so in the long run he would be more than happy for someone to "exploit" it.

Sometimes when you play chess you sacrifice a piece in order to win the game. How is this situation any different? People are getting caught up in the mentality that to win the game you MUST win each and every individual hand. Calling the shove with the J-J is not a situation that's exploitable imo. The call signifies a strong hand. And as such how can any other player at the table want to expolit the situation that is...strong hand vs shortie? That battle is one that's in the interests of everyone else in the game. Trying to push out a known strong hand to take on the shortie yourself with a hand that you know isn't as strong as the callers is not a good tactic for you imo. You push out the J-J with 8-8 and find yourself vs 10-10. How does this help you win the game? Even if you're flipping with nice pot odds how's that better for you $wise than the shortie being dominated? What's more when the caller has A-A/K-K you ain't really doing the exploiting are you.

Id say its generally gonna be a bad fold. But its real hard to comment on hands like this without knowing exact gameflow, tempo and dynamics. Some final tables play real different to others so without knowing this then u might as well ask Red or Black

What strikes me about this hand, is how everyone involved in the hand ranges are so tight, lol live poker.

The utg+1 raisor should have virtually atc with his stack, obv in live poker virtually no one has atc but his range must be at least any ace, broadways and pairs. 

So therefore Karl flatting range should be sufficiently wide that someone can profitably move 99+, aq+ behind him, the only real interesting question is that does Karl's flatting range= iso shoving range, as if they are different then that might tighten peoples ranges behind him. Given that he would iso raise hands like aj and 8's.

I like Karl's thoughts on the hand and he is getting better reads on game flow than I can ever have, just strikes me in these situations how fundamentally poor live poker players can be.

tl;dr

Cliff notes anyone?  ;)

So therefore Karl flatting range should be sufficiently wide that someone can profitably move 99+, aq+ behind him

Don't agree that Karl's range is wide here. The man knows he's putting himself in the squeeze shop window and he's investing 1/4 of his stack calling this shove...a gamble that messes up his position in the game should he lose. These are the things that determine his range rather than the range of the shover imo. To singularly consider Karl's flatting range is wide cos the shortie's range is wide isn't in itself a good enough single reason to shove all your own chips in with a marginal hand in this situation. People may say the call is exploitable by an aggro player but Karl's flatting range obv includes premium which exploits that aggro mentality in itself. Aggro's gotta hope Karl doesn't have premium...he folds...and then hope his 9-9 wins the flip vs shortie for the move to even work...and when you're sitting there live it's unlikely that risk will seem worthwhile. It may seem worthwhile to internet players when they're at home in their bedrooms but it's a different kettle of fish when you're sitting there in the final 5 after a couple of days play. It doesn't mater that internet players believe the call SHOULD be exploitable cos the fact is it's people who play the game....so it isn't.

Completely agree, very well put.

The difference in poker between should and will is massive,  not least "I've put together a very convincing bluff, he should pass here."

 Similar sort of lay down on Saturday night at The International, Final table......the all in guy obvious had the advantage of not showing, but said he had AK.

From the blog:

Tournament Bloggetta
One Pair


Joined: 18 Feb 2009
Posts: 36

 Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:36 am    Post subject:    

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Level 16 3000-6000 ante 500

6 players
What a mixed play blind stealing and strangley lots of walks even with 12k in the middle.
2 consectutive hands Saad raises 15k in early postion.
Stefano on his left dwells then flat calls the 15k,
folds round to Ed 80k BB who goes all in.
Saad counts his stack and folds. Stefano re-evalutes the situation and doesnt get to see a flop without risking his tournament life pre-flop.
He folds and shows  JJ

What a lay down 6 handed!
 

If we are playing to win the tournament (which I think is the point of this thread) then I agree flatting here is the best play. We have a big hand and would like to give ourselves the chance to win more than the 100k currently on offer so why isolate the short stack ? The hands most likely to come along or push are overcards to our J's or under pairs which we are in good shape against.

Folding JJ's at this stage in a tournament for bubble exploitation reasons doesn't sound more profitable than playing them with second biggest chip stack. I would only consider something like that if I was the one with more than half the chips and they were folding every time I pushed all-in.

I was crying and wondering what had happened to Karl until he posted this, the fact that it was a snap call by him and a snap shove for John makes it just about justifiable to pass because i think even if he has AK he has a mini dwellup.

Without the fact that everything happened to fast this would be horrible imo, he only has to shove TT and we are just burning money!

As for what Karl should be reshoving with vs the UTG jam i would expect 66+ AT+KJ+ something like that.

The only one thing i want to know is has John seen Karl make calls in these spots before with hands like 88 if so then it complicates the matter completely.

If to reshove with JJ is an error, then to do anything but call or fold here with any hand would be an error too. In a vacuum - which the hero suggests it is, ie no metagame factor - then the hero should merely flat call here with any hand he deems to be ahead of the short stack's shoving range. Tkay suggests the short stack could be shoving atc, if we tighten this up a little and we give the short stack top 70% then K9o is 54%.

I'd be curious to know if the hero would have flatted 100% of his range in this spot, would he flat with K9o?

Not sure I agree. Why does hero want to take on a 54% gamble here...especially considering that little bit of value he wins risks giving the ss the double up he needs to change the game. No I think the call should signifiy to the field he rates his chances as being much better than marginal vs the ss. And that's why the squeeze is unlikely.

I think this logic is only right if you are last to act, and know that you will be all-in against the villain. However, three opponents left to act who could themselves shove, and either  cause you to call a lot more off, or to pass and contribute a big dent of your stack to the pot.

Flushy, what do you do if you are sitting in the seat next to Karl and you look down at 99? I think you would pass.

It depends on the table dynamics and they are hard to know without being there, however if i had seen Karl previously call in these spots to pass to a shove then i would put 1 hand in the air as my chips crossed the line.

john eames the KK is defo top 5 uk online players, and he is 100% shoving TT+ AQ+ here imo. I save this decision by jamming to the shove. If im calling it is merely to get it in to further action. I didnt see the hand play out and it is dependant on the table dynamics hugely and the speed at which things happened, but my default line is iso-jam, johne just has AK,TT, enough to make this a bad fold imo. 

But this then contradicts the logic of smoothing with JJ. The reason the hero did so was because he felt that anyone behind would only go with QQ+ maybe AK. So if call/folding JJ is fine, then surely it holds that call/folding any other hand you deem to be ahead of the short stack is the correct play.

Once again i stress this is in a vacuum, as if the hero did call with K9 in this spot and everyone else folded there is no way that call/folding anything in a similar spot would be profitable for the rest of the tournament.

I used K9o as an example as it is ahead of a 70% shove range - someone suggested the hero might not want to take a small edge at this stage, so let's bump it to KJ - this should also deal with the equity we lose when someone does wake up with QQ+/AK behind.

Does the hero flat KJ?