blonde poker forum

Stars $100 F/O at 150/300 with antes. My stack circa 9k in the sb and bb has me covered with 11k. Three rounds ago I limp in the sb with  9c Tc and call a standard raise from bb. Flop comes Jc Qc 2s....all the chips go in and I double through vs his A-A. BB's chat comments suggests he's not a happy camper. Good. The next round I raise him with air and he shoves. Round after I limp and he shoves. Now to this round and once again it's folded round to me in the sb with  Kd Qc.

Whats your line here??

I am 100% sure if I limp or raise he shoves.

I raise 900 and not wanting to disappoint bb shoves for 11k. Snap? If not a snap why raise?

So you think his range is 100% of hands i don't get what the discussion is?

mantis wtf? answer ur own posts late. bet/call is probs better imo, let him think there is more dead money to scoop.

When did I say his range is 100% of hands? So check it out, there's no discussion right? After being jammed against the last two rounds if we raise this time and he jams it's an insta-call no discussion right?

So put yourself in the bb now James. You know if you jam this time the sb calls quick cos there's no discussion. Are you jamming with 100% of hands? That would be pretty stupid. That is the discussion my friend.

If you're sure he's going to shove this time when you raise him, you have to call here, it's the situation you wanted.  If you were hoping he'd pass and you'd just pick up the blind, why not just shove yourself instead of raising?  Raising to fold seems a waste to me in this situation, you know he's going to shove so raise to call or just fold.

imo

Not that it's important to the hand but you do say his range is 100% of hands. "I am 100% sure if I limp or raise he shoves" = 100% of hands.

I think raise call seems the only option with the situation as it is originally described. If you think he's only shoving premium hands because he knows he's getting called this time then I guess you have to raise fold, I don't agree with the conclusion that he only shoves premium here so I think raise call is still the correct play.

With the history, I wouldn't like to raise unless I intended to call the shove.

Then it comes down to what kind of range he's shoving with.

He shoves 100% - KQo wins ~60%
He shoves 50% - KQo wins ~55%
He shoves 20% - KQo wins ~50% (just under)

With the history, I don't think he's going to be shoving tighter than 20%. (If he was shoving tighter than 20%, then raise-fold would be a possible line?)

What that means, I'm not sure. I'm pretty sure we take 60% but do we take a flip at this stage?

Got me thinking, so posted this in learning centre. Would appreciate anyone stopping by and giving their thoughts.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=40506.msg912305#new

I was 100% sure he would jam if I raise. Maybe this is because of the trend that's developed, maybe it's because I have special soul reading skillz, maybe I'm wrong, who knows. While this is what I expect does this actually make his range atc? Just because I expect the raise 100% do YOU think his range is 100% of hands? Me being sure he raises doesn't necessarily make his range atc when you stop and consider the situation does it? My question was do people think his range tightens because our range tightens considering we are rarely going to raise and fold in this spot.

FWIW after raising I moved arrow over space where call box would pop up and was clicking very quickly.

I don't understand this at all.

Are you saying you knew from some kind of wacky newmanseye ESP skillz (hereafter to be referred to as wnesps) that he didn't have a hand which fell in the bottom 30% of cards.

You knew that his two holecards were in the top 70% (via wnesps) and so while his jamming range may not have been quite 100%, you were 100% sure he was going to raise.


Or do you mean that your read was that he was jamming range was 100%, but want to know what we think his jamming range might be given the info you have provided.

If the latter... why didn't you just say that. :)

Bit of a mad thread. I'd say jam or fold pre. Raising to fold when you are "100% sure he is going to shove" doesn't seem like a good idea at all. If he keeps this up you should have time to pick up a stronger hand than KQ.

If you fold for the next 6 orbits, his jamming range will probably drop considerably.

Depending upon when table is lilkely to be broken up I would be inclined to flip for all the chips as stealing blinds is key at this stage. We are only raising to trap him into pushing surely so you have to call. I would be pushing all-in myself tho. If he is on tilt and wants to gamble then so be it. Let him make the decision.

With history, I think you have to snap here.

Ok you could be up against an A2 which would be gay, and we're not thrilled to see him with 89s or something, but there's a very reasonable chance you have him dominated...

I am confusing myself now. I felt I was on the verge of unearthing the secret of ESP skillz and was seeking answers to combat future questions you are certain will be asked. However, upon reflection, my actual question was, is K-Q any good?

If you're gonna raise fold here I'd rather you save yourself the money and just open fold pre if you're sure he's shoving a wide range and you're going to fold.

I think in this spot because he's shoved on you in the last two orbits he is more likely to have a hand here but if he does it's a bit of a caller imo considering it's sb to bb and given past history.

Mantis mate you have lost it, you say he is 100% going to jam on you so how is his range not ATC? I really don't get it, please re-state the whole question how you now mean it and we can try and answer it for you.

I am curious though how a 100% shove rate is not any 2 cards, i guess this is the same thought process that brought you round to the idea that its sometimes best not to make +EV decisions.

Tell us what he had and we'll tell you whether it was correct to call

Cos the bb is a luckbox and never gets dealt a rag hand?

Tbh i haven't got a clue what Mantis is talking about but that isn't really any different to normal.

KQ is pretty good against people that shove 100% of their hands from the BB, but its not that good against people that shove 100% of hands that beat KQ from the bb.


<3

not read any replies but for me its a snap with a catherine wheel arm spin with face up plant to fist pump and an oh yeah baby. this is the bit of poker i really love, maths is boring.

Pretty sure i know what Karl means:

Villain knows that Karl thinks he's shoving 100%.  Therefore maybe he'll adapt his shoving range accordingly....