blonde poker forum

OK guy to my right is quite active so should I shove this here? I would much rather open shove obv but I think he's gonna keep opening (for some reason?)

PokerStars Game #25841123048: Tournament #147070707, $50+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/03/11 9:10:28 ET
Table '147070707 1' 10-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: kleptomania (1520 in chips)
Seat 5: GoldnEagl (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: JTM210577 (4550 in chips)
Seat 7: George2Loose (1450 in chips)
Seat 8: patukcouk (3065 in chips)
Seat 10: DeDachs (2915 in chips)
kleptomania: posts the ante 20
GoldnEagl: posts the ante 20
JTM210577: posts the ante 20
George2Loose: posts the ante 20
patukcouk: posts the ante 20
DeDachs: posts the ante 20
George2Loose: posts small blind 100
patukcouk: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to George2Loose [Ad Td]
DeDachs: folds
kleptomania: folds
GoldnEagl: folds
JTM210577: raises 400 to 600
George2Loose: ?

Pretty easy pass for me. He's definitely not passing if you shove and unless he's got a raggy ace you're not going to like it.

Pass now, wait for an unopened pot and shove atc. Preferably wait 'til the other 2 shorties are in the blinds as they're going to be very tight at this stage.

6-handed vs aggro oppo taking advantage of the situation? A-10 is massive here isn't it.

I disagree. A typical opponent passes here about 10-20% of the time.

You may never pass there, I may never pass there, but neither of our names are JTM210577
To be honest, I never raise in JTM's spot with a 3x stack in a DoN, there is literally nothing to gain. Maybe KK+ so I don't feel dirty, but there's still little point.

The point being, JTM is probably not that solid a player. We cannot rule out him passing completely.


That being said, this is still a fold. JTM is not going to fold enough, and ATs in never much more than 60% against his range.
Two fellow low stacks (low stacks, not short stacks, nobody is short stacked yet) about to get the blinds. It is not yet time to get involved.

AT is huge against his range. but we're on the bubble with 2 other short stacks so its a pass in my book.
in a $100 sng the bigstack doesnt realise that he's getting nearly 3-1 and that he should pass? really?

It's a $50 comp, and even so, the buy-in does not qualify his ability.

He doesn't realise that he probably shouldn't be raising in the first place, so this gives some hints as to his quality.
I'd bet even money that he's a losing player.

He may only fold 10% of the time, but we should still factor that in.

As I say though, doesn't change anything, still a fold.

i know the buyin doesnt qualify his ability but most $5 sng regulars would criticise this pass, there cant be many players THAT bad in a $50 comp (ps thanks for the correction)

lol, fail by me

JTM is up $31k at STTs +

Ranked 5 in Holdem 9-10 Seated Turbo $36-$100 Total Profit 2009 Leaderboard


Ah well, so this particular player is never going to pass, but randoms sometimes do.

I know I have no fold equity in this spot.

Does the fact that he keeps opening before me have any bearing? Saying shove atc is easy if it's unopened and I don't really want to shove from UTG

Seriously this is a turbo muck and if you think this is close you are playing far too loose on the bubble of DON's.

Given we have little fold equity and given the stack sizes i am pretty sure ak is a pass here. Try qq+ here.

Thanks for the feedback. I have a reasonable grasp of sit and go's and FWIW play very tight in these. Just some bubble situations I'm trying to get a grasp of

Any idea why he's opening so much when he's basically locked up the money?

+1, against an uber-wide range i dont like the 60% shot with ak. we've got more than 60% chance of making it through by passing

If he's opening before you literally every hand, then that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
It certainly doesn't legitimize our taking 65% on a double-up or bust.

We just don't have many options, and have to sit tight and hope that his pointless aggression catalyses something with one of the other players.

Thx for the feedback. I tank/shoved lol

He actually tanked and then called with 10, 8 (I run very good)

I won the 50$ (balla)

Not really i use to go on auto fold in these spots, unless i had a real monster so opening would just speed up the process. Though tbh he is not losing that much equity either way given the blinds are folding so many hands here.

The dynamics on the bbl of DON's are virtually different to any other form of poker i have played and you virtually should not be putting your chips in the middle on the bubble without a complete monster if you aren't opening the pot.

because he can? power trip? he's losing hardly any equity by doubling up one of you shorties (can most likely still pass into the money) and gaining the lot when he knocks you out. him raising every pot stops you guys from picking up the odd pot here and there from the medium stacks and bringing it back towards parity. im pretty indifferent between raising lots and passing into the money - but then again im no sng expert, especially satellite types. might be interesting to see what tom has to say on this, he played a lot of the step-type tournies and has a great grasp of bubble play

Stems back to his childhood perhaps?

(no offence intended if you're googling yourself JTM)

Maybe he's just having fun?

I disagree thats its pointless aggression partly, 95% of the time everyone passes, 19 times out of 20 he adds 300 to his stack, which gives him 20% towards a free shot (5 raises = 1500 stack of the 3 shorties), when he gets caught like this time to take a shot at taking someone out...

Ok, its not 'the best' tactic, but I dont think its awful play from him, the push is far worse.

That make sense?

In terms of the equity it gains him for that individual tournament, the aggression is pointless. It doesn't lose him much (if anything) so it's not a "bad" play either. Pointless is the operative word

Maybe it's a time thing. He wants the bubble over as soon as possible to up his hourly rate? Though I still don't see the point tbh.

Bubble of a normal sit and go/ MTT I understand why's he's opening so much but half the field get the same money unlike a normal payout structure. I've only ever seen complete nutters constantly opening at this stage- most winning players with his stack have the fold button on perm click

The most likely answer is, and anyone who has a monster stack in one of these has been guilty of it at one time or another is just boredom, mentally you've chalked this up as a win, you just want to show off and have it over ASAP.

i can see where you're coming from but i think stopping the shorties from picking up the blinds is more important than this.


obv he's maxing the % of time he gets itm. i think raising might do that as the medium stacks cant put any pressure on given their stacks and no-one is calling allin. therefore all that should happen is that the other players stay around the same stack while JTM blinds away or one of the shorties runs into another's monster. him raising every hand stops you guys from picking up chips, and even when one of you wakes up with qq+ he's got a 20% shot at winning anyways. the more i think about it the more i like his aggro. although maybe 4.5k is a little short to be getting this active, but not much.

Until a noob gets fruity with ATs and he loses the pot and goes from 4.5k to 3k, from 99.96% ITM to 98.96% ITM

lol it was sooooooooooooted

 ;)

In all seriousness though, the more harmful scenario to big stacks equity from continual aggression is the noob with a 3k stack who can't fold AA or KK.

Then his stack plummets from 4.5k to 1.5k, his equity shifts from 99.96% ITM to 70% ITM

Trying to claw your ITM up from 99.96 to 99.99 with continued aggression risks the aforementioned scenario.
 
Fuck that imo, just fold.

Anyway the point is- I shoved cos I'm stooopid

In future I'll wait for AJ suited :D

surely he passes to 3k? and yes george, you're a silly silly boy. if you had any kinda skills you woulda won the million!

Fold if you like money!

Probably yes.

You see my general point though. So little to be gained, so much to be lost.

What sort of stacksize would you recommend you need to go into switchoff mode in a DoN

About 4k, but tbh just play the situation and the stacksizes. I have seen people lose with 4k+ stacks who shut up shop.

Fold and wait for a better spot.
Big stack should be sitting out by this stage, the fact he's playing hands tells us he'll call.
As tank has clearly stated, ICM tells us he has little to gain still playing hands at this point.

A mathie type explanation as to why this is a fold that may help.


If you think of this hand, or any hand in a DoN competition, imagine everyone has a % figure on their heads, and that represents their chance of making the money.

At the start of the comp, given equal skill, the number on everyone's head is 50%.

Those numbers will change each hand, but all the time the numbers will have to add up to 500%. Only 5 people will make the money, and when they do, all five will have 100% on their heads.

So what have we got here

1x4.5k stack
2x3k stack
3x1.5k stack

Let's estimate that 4.5k has 99% chance of making the money, and 3k stacks have 90% chance of making the money.

What chance do each of the 1.5k stacks have, assuming equal skill and ignoring (for the moment) other factors such as their position.

It would just be (500_a-(99+90+90_b))/3_c

a = 500%, the total number that everone's ITM% needs to add up to.

b = subtracting the three that we already have estimated.

c = dividing by three, as there are three 1.5k stacks.


So you can say, after we crunch those numbers, that each 1.5k stack in this spot has ~74% chance of making the money.
(Going back to earlier, we might adjust this figure if one of the 1.5k stacks is particualry fishy, if one of their positions is lousy, etc etc. Basically we'd take from one players % and distribute it among the others accordingly)

Anyway, we'd compare this 74% figure with how ATs does against whatever range we put big stack on. (given that we have no fold equity)

I think you said that big stack is raising 100% or close to it, ATs will have 65% equity in that spot.
As 74%>65% we can see it is a fold.


That's not the whole story though. Say our ITM% at the time was 64% instead of 74%.
We probably still should fold.
The reason being, even when we double up, we still won't make the money 100% of the time.



A lot of judgement comes into assesing situations and estimating people's chance of making the money (and by extension your own chance of making the money) in various situations.
If you start thinking in terms of looking at imagining everyone's ITM% dancing about above their heads, constantly shifting, it might help you when faced with the desicion of calling an all-in or not on the bubble of a DoN.




cliff notes : never fookin' call, everything is a fold.

Pretty good explanation of ICM there Tank.