blonde poker forum

6max donkament on laddies, 20 left, 25bb eff stacks but blinds about to go up.......

just shove?


bertster89 sitting in seat 1 with 5842.50
mrobciks sitting in seat 2 with 11238.36
mab1 sitting in seat 3 with 25040.00
t-mar sitting in seat 4 with 31680.82
ArthurAndre sitting in seat 5 with 18372.50
divad85 sitting in seat 6 with 12727.09[Dealer]
bertster89 ante'd - 75.00
mrobciks ante'd - 75.00
mab1 ante'd - 75.00
t-mar ante'd - 75.00
ArthurAndre ante'd - 75.00
divad85 ante'd - 75.00
bertster89 posted the small blind - 500.00
mrobciks posted the big blind - 1000.00

** Dealing cards to t-mar: Jc, Jh
mab1 raised to 4000.00
t-mar ???

Shoving looks good to me...

Tbh don't see much of an alternative available!

All in baby,

Then type in the chatbox "If you call baby, it is going to be all over, baby"

Is this situation as standard as that? I really struggle with these types of situations primarily because I am not 100% how to calculate the maths involved. When we shove what % of the time will someone behind us wake up with a better hand and what % of the time does the opener have us dominated vs the % of the time we take down the pot by shoving or the % of the time he calls with worse etc..

Is this how we calculate whether its a profitable shove or is it just we have no better alternatives to shoving, as folding seems uber nitty and unacceptable and flatting looks very passive and weak and leaves us open to late position squeezes or seeing flops where we have no idea where we are.

As a fish I would appreciate anyone breaking this hand down into rather simple maths and also simple poker theory and apologise for being a moron.

Cheers

There isn't really that much to evaluate tbh. Here we have Jacks 6 handed, and someone has open raised. They could have any number of hands, most much weaker than JJ. Calling would be pretty bad, unless we think we can induce a bluff-squeeze shove from someone behind us who might do it with atc.

Shoving allows us to win a nice pot when they fold, and if they call, only rarely will we be a big dog...

Worrying about 4 players behind us picking up one of 3 hands that have us beat is pointless, as only 3 in 221 times will each individual player get dealt AA, KK or QQ.

Pokerstove shows are +ev equity, and remember he's pretty much got to fold anything worse than AJs or 77...

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.477%     37.84%    00.64%         548140020      9240426.00   { 55+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1:    61.523%     60.89%    00.64%         881988312      9240426.00   { JJ }

Why don't you want someone squeezing exactly?

lol... def trying this next time :)

You could rasie to 14k, but it changes little, its all going in regardless...

Standard shove.

Can't see the value in flatting hoping for the squeeze. Nobody's got enough chips to make you pass anyway so they're unlikely to try to bluff you off your hand anyway. You've called 4000 so you're not going to pass if anyone behind you shoves other than mab1.

The flat is only going to lead to problems. You're already suspecting a strong holding from mab1 with his utg raise. If you flat and someone shoves leading mab1 to iso shove what do you do then?

I'd suggest that you're probably still ahead anyway because he should be doing this with AQ+, 99+ but can you call?

I'd say you'd have to call with JJ but it's still going to be a tough decision.

Get the lot in now and save yourself the hassle of either calling with the worst hand when you knew that you should probably pass or passing the best hand when you knew you should call.

yep agree... its a standard shove with the stack, had a few mins of doubt cos he was utg which is why i posted but was pretty sure its correct to get it in ... ta

Are we calling all the time with JJ preflop?  Had a situation today that puzzeled me and I thought folding was correct.  Clearly I didn't and wished I did but thems are the breaks.

Playing 24k.  Blinds 300/600 and am in the top 40 with 200 left.  Mid position raises to 2400, I repop to 8k from the cut off, button shoves for his 9k, orginal raiser reshoves for 22k and I made the call.      Is this a call or a fold normally?   Win it and we're chip leader, lose and not so good.

14k into 52k = 4 to 1

You almost have the odds to call if original raiser has an overpair, which is by no means a certainty. He can potentially reshove AQs, AK, 99 and TT here.

This is never ever ever a fold!

That's what I figured (the range wise) I'm just curious (as I lost) if there's a situation where it is a fold.  I thought this was pretty close, but then part of me wanted to call because I know I'm weak in situations like this and miss out on massive opportunities.    Thanks

depends if u have good notes/a read on the opponent..

Silo you engineered a situation where you were getting 4-1, why do you make it 8k?

the last thing im doing here is shoving unless there is some history between myself and OR

I was hoping it was a blind steal attempt and he'd fold.  When he didn't, I thought that as I'd just stuck 1/3 my stack in and now was playing for the chip lead, I'd best get it in.  Folding would have left me on average still though. 

I mainly called due to being in so many situations in the past where I'm missing out on gathering chips.  I'm used to scraping in the money (unless I have a decent run of cards) and wanted to be more positive and try and hit the end comp in decent shape.  This all sort of went wrong here.  I assume raising to 5.6-6k be better here? Allowing me an easier get away if I think I'm behind.  Also if matey is on the steal he's less likely to shove with a worse hand, call maybe, but shove is probably unlikely. I was close to folding

I need longer to think at the table in these sort of situations, about 12 hours should do it!

People who make it 4x the big blind in donkaments basically always have a monster hand.

unfortunatly, ur hand is too strong to pass, so just shove imo.