blonde poker forum

Am looking for some advice on spread betting in general - pro's and con's.  Myself and a friend are looking to 'have a bash' - more for the craic and something a bit different but obviously be taking it seriously and trying to turn a profit.. I got a basic idea of how it works and am trying to work out the best markets etc compared to fixed odds

Anyone offer me any advice on things to look out for / things to dodge? 

Is it even worth using the spread markets, are we going to gain anything over fixed odds?

I guess horses would be our biggest interest, but also follow football, golf and snooker closely

Any advice / opinions appreciated..

 

Avoid:

High volatility markets unless you are absolutely loaded! Cricket runs and td shirt numbers can be especially painful.

Trying to buy money on sure things. When I worked in the same office as City Index, some guy sold the field at 0.5 in a Monaco Grand Prix in a 100:50:25:10 index for £1000 trying to win £500. It meant he was backing all the drivers at the back of the grid to do badly. A safe bet you would think on a course where it is impossible to overtake. However there was an absolute cloud burst and Olivier Panis came from nowhere to win and Johnny Herbert came third. Both were 500/1 or so to win the race. This punter lost £125,000 trying to win a monkey. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Monaco_Grand_Prix

Always know the worst possible result when you have a bet.

Tips:

Buy low, sell high. Try to find bets with a low downside and high upside.

If the trader calls you a line you don't expect, don't feel obligated to have a bet. Have a price you are looking for in mind, and don't accept worse.

Be careful!

If I think of anything else, I'll add to this..

Another scare story for you..

Years ago, before some Harry Redknapp / Iain Dowie chicanery put a stop to it, the spread firms used to bet on how many seconds until the first throw in of a game.

The quote used to be 55 - 65 seconds iirc.

I had a mate who regularly got his beer money by selling this quote for £10 and winning £100-£200 per bet.

Then one day he sold this market.. the match kicked off and there was a horrendous tackle within 5 seconds.. the geezer broke his leg and was treated for ages.. doctors, nurses, St Johns ambulencemen, oxygen tanks, the whole works. Play was halted for nearly 10 minutes and my mate was in for £10 per second.. I think the final make up was 14 minutes and my mate lost the best part of 8 grand!

Spread betting is great fun but is very very dangerous.

Geez those stories are enough to put me off spread betting for life.

I expect it will be all the rage with the Shrewdies by the end of the year.

Nice one cheers Camel. yeah I heard about the horror stories... We'll definatley be looking at some kind of stop loss, at least to start with until we find our feet

I like the look of some of the snooker markets (compared to fixed odds), the WC outright for example is a 100-70-5-33-20 Index (spot the newb if this wrong terminolgy)... so quite a bit of scope to buy an outsider you think is overpriced to make a decent run without them having to go all the way to the final to see a return

On the other hand I'm still trying to work our whether the horse markets for individual races are all that different to betting fixed odds.. cant see much of an advantage here but still checking it all out

If you think of anything else, I'd be really interested in your opinion...

cheers

I remember dabbling with spread betting 5 or 6 years ago - my very first bet i brought Italy performance points v England in a friendly and remember winning a fair bit after Joe Cole gave the ball away late on and Italy scored.
Not long after that i bet on Graeme Smith's series runs on the tour to England and he made something like 250+ in the first innings of the first test  - unfortunately i had a stop/loss which meant i was limited to my winnings.

After a great start though it went wrong, the worst occasion i remember being selling Liverpool goal minutes, i think against Ipswich and they ended up winning 5-0 with a couple of very late goals!!!

it was good why it lasted but i wouldnt do it again without a very big roll and a lot of research.

GL though.

If you want to bet horses, by far the best value is on betfair.

The overround on spread markets is huge.

Hmmm, yep got the message, ta.. not planning on playing these types of markets I dont think.... although we still working out how we going to approach it


Market on days before t_mar goes busto with new spread betting expriment:  5 - 7

Stone wall SELL imo

ok, I thought this may be the case, ta

spread betting  ;scarymoment;

NB Camel's statement "If you want bet on horses by far the best value is on Betfair".

lolz hard.

well done on taking that one out of context.

Camel's covered it, not much to add.

But:

Do work out the absolute worst case and choose your stake accordingly.  If trading the time of the first goal, do assume that it could m/u 1 or 90, coz it will. 

Likewise with the throw-in markets, they also dabbled with 'number of deliveries before a no-ball' in tests, I remember thinking that it wouldn't take too much to nobble the opening bowler to overstep his first delivery and look puzzlingly at his run-up whilst everyone sold the arse out of it.  Certainly more subtle than having Dowie kicking it into row Z from the off.  Don't know if they got stung or just wised up to the possibility in time.

On the horses, trading the indicies is generally a no-no.  Sometimes they are slow to update a price move and you can just about get value, but most times the spread absorbs all the value.  Best horsey option is to look at match bets.  Flat racing is a 1L spread, so don't bother with 5F sprints where you can throw a blanket over the lot of them as they cross the line.  Look more towards NH match bets with a 15L max make-up.  Far easier to have to concentrate on 2 runners rather than wade through the field for a winner.  4m mud baths throw up some good possibilities, as of course do horses that can't stay on their feet.

Some arb opportunities arise for those sharp enough to spot them.  Spread firms don't usually allow arbs to stay open for very long because they get filled in pretty quick, but some arbs are more subtle and don't get noticed.  couple of examples of good ones, a shaun pollock perfomance index was quoted years ago, 1pt a run, 25 a wicket and 10 a catch, or something like that.  Firm A went 380-400 (c an't remember, actual price doesn't matter.)  Firm B went 400-420 so no-one spots an arb, but firm B's rick was that they hadn't included catches in their quote.  Buying a very large quantity from firm A and selling an equal amount to firm B effectively leaves you miles long of pollock series catches at 0.  The other one was using a stop loss to create a free call option.  Firm A go 35-38 on shirts, no stop loss.  Firm B go 38-41 with a 50pt stop loss.  Buy from A, sell to B and you are long of the 88 call options for 0.  Most of the time, this will just involve moving large amounts of money around, but once in a while when someone with 41 on their back scores a hat-trick, you will have a very happy day.

I seem to remember some sort of massive rick regarding the total number of wides to be bowled in a Cricket World Cup because there was some rule change or something which no one had factored in.

In fact (having Googled), here it is:

http://www.sportingindex.com/extraspread/guide/spread-betting-losses.htm

It was the white ball in English conditions swinging like a demon.

Cheers Simon, Interesting Stuff... once I get up and running I might post a few bets on here that I'm having for fun...  you can all tell me where I'm going wrong :)

Now that I have fully woken up, I have just noticed the most glaring omission from the advice given.  Don't be afraid to admit you were wrong in running and gtfo.  It goes against human nature to accept a loss by closing out when you could run it and get out of it, but you must be able to do it, otherwise you will go off for telephone numbers when a bet goes pear shaped.  Conversely, there isn't a better feeling than being long of runs at 300 and watching the game 300/2 and a run a ball.  I haven't got any pre-set forumla for knowing when to take the profit (and added time value to go with the intrinsic) it is just a case of (re)pricing up the market and making decisions on that basis.

That said, don't overtrade, churning yourself into oblivion.  having to sell to their bid (or pay their offer) means there are entry and exit charges to the market, which can add up, even though you don't see them itemised on your statement!

have fun.

Damn you T Mar.

This thread got me thinking that i would like to get back into spread betting and with my decent poker win last week i decided i would invest some money into it.

I am going to do things different this time though - it wont be the silly betting on shirt numbers in a game just because one player wears no 55 - it will be well researched bets and only placed if i think there is decent enough value.

Let the fun begin...............................................

I have started with 2 bets.
Firstly i have bet on Stephen Ames finishing position in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  He has been in pretty good form lately and seems to like playing in Florida so a top 20 finish should be well within his reach.
And my 2nd bet is on Terry Jenkins to score more 180's than Jelle Klaasen tonight.
Jenks has thrown 28 to Klaasen's 19 so far, and he seems to be getting better each week, reaching the final of last weekend's tournament before losing to Taylor.

Set up a PLC and open the account in it's name ;)

Weeee... You know you want to :)

I haven't placed any bets yet but will be all over the horse racing match bets (probs start at Aintree next week), they look a good opp to me.. Having a look through some of the other markets it just looks like a lot of fun!

Gl with your bets.. let us know how you get on