blonde poker forum

Ok so we're playing live cash and sitting nicely with £204 on a £1-£1 table(having bought in for £100 & doubling up with a set). our opponent is on the button, has only recently sat down within last 2 orbits and has a stack of £100. He is about 55 years old-dont have a clue whether he has ever played poker or just out for a night out, or just a reg glasgow gambler- its in a pokerroom though, not casino.

We get dealt  Aspades Ks from mid-late position(6th) the first 2 limp, guy to my left raises to £7, I raise to £21 total, folded to buttin who calls- making pot £53- initial raiser funnily enough folds.

Flop comes  2h 6s 7c really horrible flop but I'm i'm beating some other fishy hands you see people make horrible calls with live so I bet £31- he calls(shit). Turn comes  Ts.

Whats my play here with nut flush draw and 2 overs...But straight draw complete?? follow through or slow down versus an unkown quantity?
 
he has £48 left so I've got think if he calls the flop he calls any other bet now right??

Don't see a way around putting him all-in here...

he just about has to call anything..but he might not...shove and pray he folds...or that you hit. Check and he should surely bet as you would scream that you have AK then....I can't see past a bet. (unless you want to give the hand up here)

yeh stick it in- not like ur folding if he shoves? Would be trickier if he was deeper

this is at the Wabash, get yer chips in you nit!

u are probably still ahead

although now that you are posting i think you got your money in and didnt hit

lol
prob ahead

i cant see someone calling on the flop as a float that often live.
i thinkshove and pray that u hit

As i said above This is the wabash, it really happens, he is possibly over playing AJ AQ A10 QJ, you see this at the wabash

whats  the wabash?

is this the cool speakk now?

its the poker Club this most probably took place in.

Correct-he had the straight, put him all in and never hit-just didnt think it could go anyway but wanted to see others thoughts

wow cold calling 20% of ur stack with 89? was it suited? was he chinese or greek
get me to this club now!

pot size: 2+7+21+21+31+31=113
effective stacks: 100-31-21=48

if we bet and he calls we are behind, we have 9 outs to the nut flush (sometimes less with a set) plus potentially 6 pair outs. i think we have pair outs quite often (against a smallish PP, sixes anyone?) overall id estimate 12 outs on average so ~ 25% equity. then we lose 48 75% the time and win 160 the other 25% for +4 on average. thus shoving is profitable.

if we tighten up his calling range to hands that crush us - straight (9 outs), sets (7 or 8 outs) and 2 pair (probably 8 outs) then we are about 16% against his calling range - so we lose 48 84% of the time, and win 160 16% of the time, leaving us with -14.72.

however, when he folds we win 113 so he only needs to fold 11.5% of the time to make this profitable. if this is his calling range then unless sets straights and 2 pairs make up 90% of his range then shoving is grand