blonde poker forum

There are some fantasically overpriced outsiders in ths year's Masters imho due to the Tiger's return.

These are a few of the ones that I am on so far:

Angel Cabrera @ 240, Ross Fisher @ 280, Martin Kaymer @ 280, Andres Romero @ 150, and Alvaro Quiroz @ 300.

But my main bet is on Tiger who I think is as nailed-on as it gets in golf this week, and 5/2 just seemed too appealing which is why I've had one of my biggest bets for many years, although I'll almost definitely be managing my position on BF.

Is it this week?

Yep

Henrik Stenson

That is all

ross fisher outright, padraig for top irish, highest score - 86 and under

Tiger Woods is in great form but he will not have things all his own way at Augusta, with Mickelson, Ogilvey and Harrington all up for a good scrap.

One thing you can be sure of with Tiger though is that he will be bigger than 5/2 at some stage during the tournament. I plan to lay Tiger at the start and hopefully close out when he drifts to around 4-1......

I am with Ralph though in that I believe the value here is in the outsiders at very generous odds......and as such I am picking several.............here goes

Camilo Villegas  70   
Adam Scott  130   
Kenny Perry  120   
Ross Fisher  270   
Graeme McDowell  320 
Louis Oosthuizen 380
Alvaro Quiros 260
Miguel Angel Jimenez 270

Hopefully I should get a good run from one of these guys.........

Top 10 finish

Rose
Immelman
Poulter
Cabrera
Romero

Boooooo Weekly, gotta have a few quid to hopefully lay off later, the guys just great!

Can't back Woods at 2/1, Kev wil be on Poults, Villegas playing ok.  Wiill have a proper look tomorrow morning

LOL no bets for me ....

[  ] I will be rooting for poulter though obv.

I'm involved purely for value. Not got much of a clue if i'm honest.
Went to back Stewart Cink. [ ] I clicked the right box
GO Steve Stricker!

Greg Norman got a hole in one in the pitch and putt tourney and Gary Player got one on the last hole in his last year at Augusta.

Ha HA HA ... thats brilliant, I am gonna be supporting Stricker for sure, gl gl gl

the forsyth fella golfer tipped ross fisher as well as one of his top 5 tip in the record today.

I am on:

Mickelson to win
Romero to win
Romero to finish in Top 10
Fisher top Englishman

Have also managed to do some pretty decent trades on Betfair and have 'free' bets running on about 10 players - the best of which are Villegas and Adam Scott.

Apart from Boooooo, rude not to choose Fisher as everyone else has.  Also on Casey, Perez and Perry.

GL and here's to a great golfing event.

i think Nick Watney could go close at about 40-1 Augusta seems to be all about ball striking the last few years and this guy is very impressive, also Vijay Singh at 80-1 to big surely for a 2 time winner.

just my 2 cents

Vijay is woefully out of form and will do well to make the cut this week.

Was tempted to have a few on Watney too, in great form at the moment, could well be a nice suprise.

Obviously it all depends on Tiger having a bad weekend... However my bets for the weekend are :
£5 Mike Weir 66-1
£5 Jim Furyk 70-1
£5 Kenny Perry 85-1
£5 Rory Sabbatini 150-1

I really fancy Kenny Perry to win it though... He has been knocking on the door of a major for a while and this weekend may be it...

GoGoGo My runners lol

casey ftw

Just had 5 very small wagers on the following...

Hunter Mahan
Oliver Wilson
Ross Fisher
Carl Petterson
Miguel Angel Jimenez

Fisher leader at -3 atm :D

Can anyone get the live stream from Amen Corner ?

I just get the "not available in your area" message :(

Working for me.

+1

Fisher is on Fire............go go go as teh shrewdies would say

Cheers Andrew I was trying to get it via the official site, forgot it was on BBC.

Gogogogo Fisher and Cabrera  ;cheerleader; ;cheerleader; 

i really gotta stop betting on laddies and open a betfair acc, they were only offering 100-1 on fisher!!

I got 270 - 1 on Fisher

Ralph got 280-1

whats more if they get in contention you can lay some off and free roll

I already took a small profit out of Fisher, laying £20 @ 36, just the £3.5K freeroll now :)

Had one small bet today.

Anthony Kim to outscore Rory McIlroy in the first round at about Evens.

I really expect some very low scores today the way the course seems to be playing, 65, 66, must be on.

On betfair what does the market depth mean? The percentages above the back and lay prices.

Add up the money on the 3 boxes either side of the middle point. This is then displayed as a percentage to show which side has the most money on it. The price should move towards the low side in a 'free market'

?

It's the overround/underround of the prices. If you were to convert all the prices to a % chance of winning, then add them all up you'd get the market depth figure.

If the market was a coin flip, both heads and tails at 2.00 would be 100%. But you wouldn't get that, you'd get both available to back at 1.95 and lay at 2.05 (or similar). Converting gives you a Back overround of 102.6% and a Lay underround at 97.4%.

Let's go Hunter!!!

kenny perry for me glgl sir

Tiger has won, three victory parades over the weekend, he is a stunning amount better than the field. ship the moneyz laddies, ty

the old boys goin well

Rory Mcilroy also doing very well on his debut- was at -4 back down to -3 now.

between Harrington, Furyk and Perry for me though

im new to golf betting but is this sensible for future bets guys; say you fancys a golfer @ 150-1 like instead of betting e/w, betting cubed so to speak like £5 to win ,,£10 for top 4 ,, £20 for top 10??

Shrewd.

weeeeeeeeee Tiger dropped a shot on 18 again :)

scooooooop.

Can back him @ 6.4 now.

nice! ta for the tip camel

Mcilroy was flying up until the 16th- did anybody see that 18th-absolutely butchered it- if he plays that bunker safe he saves 2 stokes

I'd love to see Cabrera win.

Plays golf the right way and great attitude imo.

Am I alone in thinking Peter Alliss should retire?

I used to find him quirky and witty.

Now he's just a senile old bigot (imo).

Exactamundo, can not stand the old grump..

Most of my picks have bottled it.

Harrington and Ogilvy my only two left.

Get in Harrington Eagle put.

Uh Oh, Schoolboy error by Rory!!

There's so many ridic rules in golf. He's obviously not testing the surface.

got a month long sports bet with my m8, hes backed rory @ 5pts, happy with that

Quite agree, hopefully it will be ok for him.  Feel sorry for Padraig too.

All green for me, still have big a winner (mad dimes) in Cabrera and a few others including Tiger are fair to middling.

Can't decide whether or not to lay Perry off.  Be nice to not go busto on my BF account, but at the end of the day it's only a few quid and letting it ride would pay dividends (for me) if he wins it. 

few extra punts or go ftw and have a slightly less score should he win?

backed perry @130 laid@7.4
laid tiger@2.98 backed @6.2

profit gtd, hoping for the perry win to scoop some mad dimez

All green here too.
   
Andres Romero
Louis Oosthuizen 

GONE

Angel Cabrera 
Steve Stricker 

REMAIN

Greened out at 6.6.  Not too shabby

got out for my stake back on fisher when he missed his put for eagle on 12 to go 7 under he looked lost. Padraig top irish still live and bet of the week 86 and under as worst score looks sealed now. also got on centre bet 9/2 13 under or better to be winning score, huge value should have been 6/4 given the weather forecast.

I am all green thanks to Chad Campbell starting so well again today and a bit of trading of Tiger:

C Campbell +£554.00 -9
Garcia +£166.00 -4
Sabbatini +£1,026.00 -4
Mickelson +£76.00 -3
Woods +£73.50 -2
Villegas +£376.00 -2
McDowell +£226.00 -2
D Johnson +£1,626.00 -2
Merrick +£226.00 -2
Mediate +£226.00 -1
Romero +£2,276.00 E
Imada +£7,876.00 +1
The Field +£26.00

Just going to let it all ride now. Hopefully Campbell can win it or one of my other big ones can make a late run for glory  ;)

Very nice

Also all green but lower figures. much lower.

My book is all about Tiger. Ive got a few other players whom i backed at the start of the tournament at big prices, but last night i laid Tiger pretty big for me @ 3.0.

And im obv still concerned about him, as we all know he is usually at his best over the last 2 days. That being said, i still cant really have him as favourite, with the amount of golf hes played in the last year compared to everyone else.

Almost tempted to dive in further, but that would be too sick:

Tiger Woods
-£702.71

Kenny Perry
+£722.41

Geoff Ogilvy
+£610.66

Lee Westwood
+£917.80

Tim Clark
+£490.94

The Field
+£240.33

Also backed Sutherland & Jimenez at big prices, but they had good runs

Could now trade and give myself £70 green on all inc woods, and some more on the players ive backed, but then ill be bored over the next couple of nights, so clearly not gona do that.

My book is far from being all green.

Pleased that Sergio got his finger out yesterday as got a large (relative) amount on him then two smaller bets on Padraig and Ogilvy.

Going to be gutted if that fkn stupid ruling means Padraig misses out by 1 shot.

Interestingly, Jack Nicklaus never ever grounded his putter behind the ball on the green preferring to hover it instead meaning that it was impossible for him to incur such a penalty.

There's still some decent value around imo.

Woods, Harrington and Westwood are all in the group on -2, a score which is not by any means out of this.

However Woods is 5/1, Harrington is 25/1, but I've just taken 120/1 Westwood on BF !

Cabrera FTW

any links to the golf? dont wanna wait till half 8 on bbc1, wanna see Woods charge!

I'm not sure there is any on anywhere until the BBC shows it; not that the BBC governs it, but they show all they can.  Augusta are pretty tight about what they allow to be shown for some reason.

i watched a bit live on the bbc sport web site yesterday (i assumed it was live)

Amen corner comes on live when the first group reaches it but the tee offs were later today so they wont reach Amen until half 6 7 ish.

Tiger double bogeys the first of Round 3..

Tut tut to the doubters who twitched and laid off :D

Count your chickens quietly :)

still think he is in with a shout! he will produce something special! just wish it was on!

From here I reckon he needs to shoot 68 today and 65 tomorrow.

It's not beyond him for sure, but it's also not a 12/1 shot.

Had a tickle on Jimenez at 120.0.  Nice start at -2.

is it not worth backing tiget now at 14s? he will surely birdie a few and be a ood trading oppurtunity!

Blimey Harrington took 9 at the 2nd !

looks like harrington is out of it now! got a lot of work to do now!

is sergio out already? his price is drifting on BF, must have bogeyed the first

market over reacted to garcia> went from 13s to 22s on one dropped shot!

Come on Tiger!!!

I'm not gona feel like ive had a good run for my money unless he goes into the last day with a big chance.

Wana be sweating come tomorrow night.

Is now a good time to say..

juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeee

I've sold him on the spreads. If he finishes outside the top 8 I make mad dimez!

wow nice, gogogo.

LOL Sorry Miguel, Bokked ya.  Started -2, now +1

tiger birdie, back to where he started the day at 2 under, needs to get a move on!

This would be such a great story if he wins it - only 4 off the lead

I've laid a chunk of my Cabrera bet @ 3.5 for a guaranteed green monkey, Tiger and Angel still dimez but not as mad :)

However Westwood would land some very mad dimez indeed.

I picked a few outsiders at the start of the tourney:

S Garcia @ 42.0
I Poulter @ 110.0
Jimenez @ 240.0
Cabrera @ 180.0
S Cink @ 110.0]

£4 on each, £20 total

I followed Day 1, but was busy lately, and just came home to see Cabrera 2 shots off the lead last night, i watched the remainder of the round 3 and seen him go joint top.

He was anywhere between 3.35 and 4.0 last night, so i started Laying over some profit anywhere between 3.3 and 3.75 last night

My Market now looks like this:

Cabrera = +£380 (Tied 1st!)
Any other player = +£119
Poulter = +£544 (although he is out of it)


This is by far the best book ive created on Betfair for a wee while, not with regards the Prifit alone, but definitely with the Stake to Profit ratio!

Im hoping for Cabrera to possibly take a 2 shot lead at some point (Moving him odds on), and should be able to secure about £250-£280 on every outcome!

nice work Dave :)

June, my book is boring now:


Kenny Perry
+£491.45

Jim Furyk
+£344.56

Tim Clark
+£409.43

Tiger Woods
+£0.05

The Field
+£305.03


I backed Woods back @ like 32.0 and laid some of my Perry bet @ 3.7.

Shrewd decision i guess to lock up a bigger profit on the field, and i can just watch it unfold in peace now.

TY Camel for getting the Woods lay @ 2/1 in my head, wiiiiiiiiiiiiiii.

My books a bit like yours too, just with one less number in it :D

Thank you Kenny Perry

All green for £650...........

Be nice to watch the final day without sweating it

Backed Mickelson big time at 7/2 for a top 5 finish today - nice start with birdies at 2 and 3
Lets gogogo

Cabrera looks like he's wearing very similar colours/gear to what he did when winning the US Open a couple of years back.

Happy memories :)

And another one for Phil at 5 - come on my son

Mickleson is on fire!!!  What a shot that was

Mickleson is playing fantastic

+1

Just 5 under through 7!

-1 surely ?

Sandy

fucking dumb yanks ... Tiger on a par 5 taking his tee shot and some tool shouts "GET IN THE HOLE" ... It should be perfectly legal to immediately shoot these morons as soon as they open their mouths.

That is the most fucking annoying thing about about watching golf in yank land, Dickheads!!

You're the man.

Eagle for Tiger ... 7 under

Squeaky bum time for some ;)

lol was just going to post the same :D

Hahaha. this made me laugh, I think this every time I watch the golf. 
I mean how often do we see a ball drop in off the tee?

Get in the hole ?

Sandy

This golf is awesome.  I normally back Cabrera for every major tournament and this time I never, I really hope he messes it up from a purley selfish perspective.  I haven't had a bet on this years event, but I have looked through this thread and it seems a few posters will make money no matter what the outcome, well done to you all.

Could someone give me a "dummies guide to betfair" How do you create books?  Do you have to have the funds in your account to lay off?  Or can you do that on the strength of your potential winnings?

I have never used exchanges and I am more of a laymen who walks into Hills or Ladbrokes and hands my money over, yet I feel as if I am missing out on so much value online.

This is turning into a truely awesome final day

Come on Chad and Phil

oops from Phil

Mickelson is a choker ... always always always.

Yes you can lay off on your winning equity, and BF explains it in layman's terms for newcomers on their website.

PS I bet the Camel's ample botty is twitching slightly :)

Um, well, there's better people to explain it than me but the basic idea is this.

You back someone at 10.0 for £10  he does well and at some point drops to 2.0.  You can now lay your bet if you like.   Some people 'green' out completely (called green because all the figures on Betfair go green) and make it whatever the outcome, they will win the same amount.   Others will only lay a smaller amount and have more profit if their original selection comes in.  You don't need extra funds in your account if you are laying off for a profit, the money is deducted from your potential winnings as you can't go wrong with it really.  If you are laying off and making a loss (to limit liability) you need the funds in your account.

Sorry it's not that clear but I'm not that good at explaining it and playing poker at the same time, need to concentrate on explaining things like this but it gives you an idea hopefully.  Best thing to do is have a go, sounds complicated but it's not that hard once you start.

The market depth on Tiger at up to 90 is unbelievable, some very large liabilities around the 70 mark and downwards.

ty.


Thanks also.

brilliant theatre ... havent got a fkin clue who the winner will be.

I've twitched at last.. laid off at an average of 12/1..

Would have left it for a hole or two.

QFT but please let it be Mickelson, i'm a fully paid up member of the left handers club and i've also backed him!

CHOKER

Just missed a pretty simple putt to go joint leader

could be an amazing 5p profit for Horner :D

Especially after that shot...

I'm greened up and Cabrera is the big win for me but i don't care anymore.

GO TIGER!!!!

What price Tiger in a playoff now

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

unbelievable

GO TIGER !!

Tempted to lay my Perry bet for more. Thankfully Tiger is running out of holes!

This is brilliant.

I really want Tiger and Mickelson to tie after 18 and then come back for a playoff if the others fk things up.

Tiger is unreal

awsome TV

Woods is pure gold, big injury lay off and comes back better than ever

No £'s on this so rooting for Tiger

me too, almost all my bets shagged and had decent bet on no major for tiger this year - don't mind if it goes down here.

Massive put from Perry

lol, I got greened out and left 40p for a Tiger win.

Should have let it ride Hawkins ya chicken  rotflmfao rotflmfao

Watching sporting events on Betfair is brilliant. Seeing Tiger shoot to 1000 and you know to look at the TV to see him hit the tree.

What price was Tiger to not win a major this year? Nice donation.

What was Perry doing there?

Dunno, but I wish he'd sort himself out!!

Come on Chaddy boy

3 way play-off anyone?

Kenny, nooooooooooo

please, I could use £200!!!!!

No pressure on this putt then!!

Riveting stuff, time to crack open another cold one. Please let this go at least 2 extra holes.

Yes

Taking bets?

looking forward to this, lay perry now, 18th first and it don't suit his game at all.

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee great drama ... loving it.

Good call, goooooooooooo Angel

Is that you moving the market? ;)

Well im big on Campbell so hoping he nicks it - but it has been a great final day whoever wins

No me

Ive had a few quid on Angel cabrera....
Ralph you run good

No Rob I've not had a single bet during the final round yet, but Angel wins me an extra £800.

rooting for you. I've just taken Perry's green to zero and split it between the other two.

[ ] Great golf

Decided to lay off some of Campbell before that 2nd shot - they are all feeling it big time!

LOL @ this playoff

Oy vavoy as we say....

Cabrera traded at 55's when his 2nd shot hit the tree - now his about 2/1 lol

nice shot Perry

Bugger

Miss please Chad

Come on Perry!!!!!!!!

I've now had £200 on Perry

Winner will only make a £3.29 difference now. Chad would have got me alot less than these two.
Hope Perry wins it.

Perry's bottling it at the thought of me losing £200!  Don't worry about mate, just do what you've done all week!

It cost me a bottle to bok Perry by the look of it :)

GG Perry

[ ] I Love Betfair
Letting it ride ftw

FML, I run so bad on Sundays :(

wiiii

Only small stakes but what a great ride ;)

What a fantastic days golf

Oh and WP Karabiner. I sort of copied some of your picks.

Superb night of entertainment ... loved every minute :)

and the glimpses of Mrs Perry ;)

Woof ship it!!!!!!

I Laid a little more @ 1.2 to level my book up when Perry fucked up the play of 10th hole, so about +£350 Profit!!!!!

Easy easy Easy