blonde poker forum

This has been written to explain my experience with extreme variance. i hope people can draw from this some resolve for when they run worse than a hoofless beach donkey on an ice rink.

I make a living playing multi table sit n go's and believe completely in the maths. I do not believe in the whole 'poker is rigged' theory nor do i belive in the 'cash out curse' or any other tin pot theory. Nor am i nieve - i know big companys do and will defraud their clients (enron for example) but i still think that online poker, for the whole is based on ethical RnG systems that work

The following is only my experience and is up to others to decide if it is down to bad luck, variance or rigging. i already know what I think

So it begins last September after playing at one of the nets largest and most respected poker sites.

I played about 10 tornys and in each case, was knocked out when i was in a coin flip situation. To lose 10 crucial coin flips in a row (all of them allin pre flop) is nasty but happens all the time. Over the following week, i noticed that i couldnt win a single all in coin flip and so, i grabbed pen and paper by my desk and started to record all future coin flips. The criteria was that it had to be an all-in preflop situation and the cards had to be a pair versus overcards. These were the results throughout the following week.

ak v 77    lost
aq v 88   lost
88 v aj     lost
10 J v 22  lost
ak v 33     lost
qk v 55     lost
44 vs aq     lost
33 vs 9 10  lost
aj v 99       lost
a10 v 88     lost
33 vs ak     lost
66 vs j9     lost
ak v qq      lost
44 v 78      lost
ak v 99      Won
a9 v 55     lost
1010 v ak  lost
kq v 88   lost
66 v q9   lost
99 v aj   lost
ak v 44  lost
66 v a9  lost
99 v A10  lost
KQ v 22    lost
KQ v 44    lost
99 v KJ    lost
1010 v AJ  lost
AQ  v 1010  lost
88 v A9     lost

I emailed the poker site asking for some type of reassurance and they explained RnG and variance etc. I carried on and things went from bad to worse. Now my AA and KK couldnt hold up either

AA v 77  lost
ak v 55  lost
kk v99   lost
aa v qq  lost
99 v aj  lost

At my wits end, i decided that if it happened again, i would simply go to another site. I played the $100 freezout, grinded my way to the bubble, got it all in with 88 v Aj and obviously lost, had a few chips left so shoved 2 hands later with AK, go called by 44 and knew i was gonna lose and did.

Ive only posted a few samples about, the total tally was 57 coin flips with 2 wins

I still have faith in online poker but its hard, really hard to continue when this happens

Anyone else experienced this?

Impossible to read.

Delete and try and again.

welcome to my world

50p

:hello: and welcome to blonde poker :)up

mbn to bink with the AK!

lol sounds like a standard week at teh pokerz

ak v 99      Won


well played

This is the best bit, surprising really they didn't just admit the site is rigged, keep at 'em I say...

£27.50?

This is weird because in my last 57 coin flips I've lost 2 ???

Variance, Mr Ezzo, is a wonderful thing.

You seem to be implying that the site - "one of the largest & most respected" (& thus making shed-loads of money, we can safely assume) has rigged the RNG to make you lose.

Why exactly would they do that?

 But welcome to blonde, & Happy Motoring.

I'm pretty sure I was the guy with the 99 - I definitely remember losing a race with them.

I run so bad losing a race against the Eddie the Eagle of flipping.

fyp

I played a 6 seater sit n go last week. I got dealt about 120 hands. AA once, KK once, and QQ seven times. SEVEN times. In tens of thousands of games I have never even had QQ three times, nor four, nor five. SEVEN! Not rigged, obv, but the chances of it happening...

Why would the big successful sites do that?  They have more to lose by not being vigilant against this sort of thing, don't they?

Did you win?

UB was a big successful site? They have, as seen, lost more as an outfit than has been gained by the insider-cheats. But it still happened. I'm sure they too thought they were vigilant at the time.
Can you be certain that none of the big sites have a team on the inside that plays against you and can control the outcome of flips at will?
5 years ago if I said 'omg, I just played this tourney, the guy is either god, or I'm sure he can see my f-ing hole cards', I'd have been told 'haha, stop being so silly/paranoid, the big sites make so much money, and are so secure, how could they possibly let such a thing happen, it's just variance and a lucky read.'

I'm not saying it happens at the big sites, I'm just saying I can't say with confidence that it doesn't.

Yeah thankfully, it becomes a lot easier to play with confidence when you know good cards are just round the corner. The QQ were challenged 3 times, once winning a flip, once holding up as overpair, once splitting vs villain's (yes) QQ.

I did complain to the site a few days earlier about unfair disconnects and threatened to build up a bit of cash and never play there again. Very responsive Customer Care imho. :D

My dad was convinced that on Crypto you should always play hands with 6's in them as a 6 would make trips more frequently than any other card.

Im not saying i think the site is rigged but i think there is an outside chance of there being a glitch in their software. As for these sites not being rigged, we only have to look at large companys that have defrauded the public for millions.

Who knows, i think the 'online rigged' debate will never go away. iI have played on all the other sites and only experienced this on the one site

What glitch might this be? It detects a race situation, spots your username, and intentionally lets the other player, whoever they might be, win?

It's just a pretty horrible run. Things will turn around... providing you haven't already smashed your monitor by this point :)

I had a similar sort of horror run about 18 months ago when holding a pair against a smaller pair and it was tilting me severely, I just couldn't win even when making my set on the flop. The first and best piece of advice I got was to stop keeping count.

You've had an unlucky run in a coin flip situation, that is all.

Theres no such thing as variance. Only bad play. I picked a sample of your hands, what on earth were you thinking getting in to these spots?

Everyone knows 67 green is the nuts.

i ran much worse at blackjack on tuesday

You missed my question Mr Ezzo.

Why would the site "fix it" for you to lose? What exactly would be their motive?.......

NB - You did say it was a "respected" Site, so we are assuming it's not UB or AB.

As for the guy who had QQ 7 times in a night, it happens. I had AA 7 times at Luton one night last week, & I can go weeks without seeing AA.

I just love these conspiracy theorists - but they still play Online!

Have you ever had a pair of Queens seven times in a night?

Yes - Southampton Summer Fessie, & I still failed to Final......

It's unusual, but the question begs the answer - why would a site fiddle it to give someone QQ 7 times?!

All these conspiracy theorists forget one simple thing.

MOTIVE.

But it's an argument nobody can ever win. The oddity is that those that go on about, still play Online. Go figure.

In answer to TK:

im not saying the site is rigged and i guess deep down, i know its just a bad run of luck - a very bad run at that. I may have hinted that i think something is amiss but i guess thats just emotion speaking. I guess when someone runs this bad, they want to blame someone but theres noone to blame.

Im playing back on Cake now and my coin flip rate is at 45% where it should be and i guess if i continue to play the volume of hands that i play, i will experience something similar on Cake - variance, plain and simple

On another note, ive not posted here b4 and am very impressed at the responce and the the amount of replys in a short time, great forum!!

Exactly that, no more, no less.

Everyone goes through these runs from time to time - AND the opposite! - and it tests players mettle, & backbone. Remember, poker is 80% (insert slightly lesser figure if you wish) luck-based.

Glad you like the forum. Stick around. Learn words like juuuuuune, tez, meh, fml, & ffs. ;)

  :D are you talking about "play the presenter" this week,I know they pick the best hands to show, but did you lose a race all night ?

Only in Brighton

Lol.

Yes, I did actually. My 5k starting stack was 1,800 after 2 levels, when my AA & KK both got busted, & I made the Final with 3 x Big Blinds! So I needed to win my Races. And boy oh boy, I did.

For the last 3 hours, I never had more than 8 x Big Blinds. I'd be good if I could play a short-stack.......

Its just plain old variance, I have lost something like 10 SNGs on the bounce now, mostly with my chips in good!

A couple of examples.

J9 losing to AA with all chips in on an xJ9 board, Turn 3, River 3!
AQo losing to AJo all in pre-flop, AJ makes a flush!

You have to remember its just badl luck or varience and try not to chuck your laptop out the window!

Hardest thing in the world to do at times...

I see a pattern in the numbers.

You keep losing flip situations.

The answer to this is simple...stop getting in flips.

Try to pick spots where you are 40-60,30-70,20-80 etc...these are the golden ratios. There's even a few 10-90s out there if you look hard.

7-4 is a great hand, was always my favourite hand, even pre blonde(!), and the blonde collective have backed up my faith in this weapon of mass destruction.

Also, another tip is to find spots where you aren't showing down hands. There are tons of these.

Good luck with this. Also remember PMA. Thinking you're going to win is important, it helps you play more positively generally and helps you identify those crucial 30-70 situations more easily.

I think this sort of run is down to bad karma, so it's pointless telling op it's just a passing phase. op has clearly courted the wrath of the poker gods and he needs to do something about it quick. You can invite a bad karma run through excessive drug-taking, cruelty to animals or general negative thought. It is unlikely you're taking drugs because you wouldn't really care enough to post. But if you are, try and take a break. Think really hard about what you've done to piss someone off lately, never do it again, and buy your wife a bunch of flowers. Next time you log-on the problem will be solved as you will now win about 50% of all flips.

i have been breaking the legs of stray giraffes. This might have something to do with it

FYP!

but welcome to the forum!...

Yeah, I know where you're coming from.

You go through bad patches all the time, you think you know what variance means and then whump, the word goes and redefines itself on your ass and you're left thinking wtf.

Don't want to patronize you, but working on your game (by posting hands on hand analysis boards, brushing up on ICM, and watching instructional videos to name three methods) is a better use of your time that calculating how many races you lose in a row and wallowing in self pity.

You can't help the way the cards fall once all the chips go in the middle, so it's better to concentrate on the things you can do something about.



Think you're a bit barking e-mailing the site questioning it's RnG. Different people react in different ways though so I'll try not to judge too harshly.

Move to another site if you think the games are softer, the traffic is better, you can theres a good promo or rakeback deal you want to take advantage of, is the structure suits your game better, or if you just fancy a change.

Moving to another site because you think the last one (if it's a big respectable site) had a rigged RnG is fishy thinking though. Hope you snap out of it soon.

FFS, why did you not say that in the first place? Obviously the reason.

PS - Stick around, I think you'll fit in nicely here.

In the end, Keith Richards had to completely uninstall Party Poker

Ezzo,

Here's variance at work.

A pal of mine, Richard Oford, is doing a Bankroll Challenge. He began with £100, & was grinding away at low-limit cash.

Then he switched to £10 DYM's, & ran the £100 up to £400 quite quickly. He's nothing special, but he has the right basics.

Then, somehow, he lost 8 straight DYM's on the bounce. Eight! You only have to get top three of 6, & he lost 8 running. How can that happen to someone who knows basics, is solid, & profitable? But it did.

And then, on the back of that, he won 8 on the bounce, & 22 of the last 28. His £100 is now about £500.

Hang in there, & you'll be all right. Tank has it about right, in his missive. He's a VERY experienced SNG-er, & knows how many beans make five.

And ignore all this conspiracy theory nonsense, it will mess with your head a treat.

Never underestimate the power of luck, & variance.

Good Luck.

must read? lol

Haha, I laughed at this too! I thought that a mod must have changed the title as the OP is so funny.

i laugh when i hear people say the internet is rigged because i know they have no clue about life and hence, no clue about poker. Live players who say online is rigged because they cannot understand why they do their nut in online yet do OK ish live. Well chaps its because you play more hands online and variance catches up to you, and you dont like it cause in reality your a losing player long term and varience is coming with a late rattle on the outside.

Don't tap the tank, we NEED these people playing poker.

hi again guys, just to reiterate a couple of things as the previous posts have got the wrong idea a bit

1) i dont think online poker is rigged in any way - i just needed to vent my frustration :(

2) I am a succesful winning player online and have grinded out a bankroll from $100 to %2500 in 2 months playing SnG's despite the recent variance and so dont really understand the previous poster saying i should brush up on my game.

3) The 'must read' part of the post - well lol, the forums i usually post on hardly get any replies and thats y i started posting on blonde with the over dramatic title - ill keep more realistic next time :)

cheers

As a lurker and irregular poster, I thought it was well worth a read with all the replies. Which is why I like this place.

Winning mosest amounts online at low and mid limit STTs isn't difficult. I don't know what poker forum you used to post on but $2,400 in 2 months is not going to convince many here that you know everything there is to know.

Always room to get better, but if you want to stagnate in mediocrity because further learning challenges your ego (the thought there might possibly be something about STT strategy that you don't already know) then crack on.

You're not alone, it's the path of most grinders. Learn enough to win consistantly and then stop learning. Moan about bad luck every once in a while grinding out a less than impressive hourly.

erm thanks Tank - still not sure where youre coming from, i dont have a big ego and thats why i have not mentioned the following recent wins this year : 4th Stars sunday warm up for 32k, 4 sunday full tilt brawl for 22k, 2 1st place finishes in Cake nightly $109 plus a recent live win at the vic festival for 9k

I pay the SnGs on a daily basis but am also a succesful at mtt. I didnt feel it nessesary to say this before as i dont have an ego or brag bone, im actually very modest. I just didnt understand you 'ego' reply which made a judgement without the full story

great forum though!

OPR???

erm, are you aware that blonde Poker has its own cardroom?

take a look at www.online.blondepoker.com

Good karma guaranteed if you try it, I know the man with the lever to the RNG  ;)

...and we exempt Giraffe leg-breakers.

Come on in.

because I project my own personality onto everyone else

ldo ::)


Where I'm coming from is that everyone who thinks they have nothing to learn I see as probably having an ego issue impeding them in some manner. (either that or they're stupid/crazy, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt)

Ego not in the sense of bragging to others and being boastful, but ego in terms of how honest you are with yourself about your own skill level. It just doesn't logically follow that someone should rigidly oppose the idea that they have any more to learn. After all, even if you were the best in the world you could probably still improve.

If you win mad dimez in MTTs (or if you earn mad dimez in real life job for that matter) then fair play to you. I was just talking about the STTs though coz that was what thread seemed to be about.

Just because you win doesn't mean you play good, but you probably do, just because you play good doesn't mean you can't play better.

I consider myself a very good player, i still take the time to try to learn new things everyday about the game, i have been playing online MTT's for 6 years now and if i had stopped to learn i would have gone skint a long time ago, as it is that $30 spinup has just passed the $1m mark and i can't wait to get better at poker!

thanks Tank - i can never stop learning this wonderful game! noone ever can - the game evolves constantly and players have to adapt and learn all the time. When i first started playing years ago, i was advised to 'always raise on the button' whereas nowadays, that can be lethal! Try button raising me when im in the big blind lol

I do play on blonde, in fact i won a $15 feeder to the equal chance event this week but the main satallite was cancelled dur to lack of runners. 'Colchest Kev' was really pushing to get players in and then failed to enter himself!!! Its a shame this event is not properly advertised at Equal Chance club which i frequent. They should put out a bunch of flyers to promote this monthly satellite.

As for the blonde website - along with Blue Square website, there are 3 features missing that prevent me from playing on Blonde full time. 1) not being able to choose seating position, 2) screen not popping up whens its my turn 3) no time bank

Ps: what do the following mean

opr
ido?

cheers

you not fancy playing the Irish Open James ?

can't get the staff these days mate!

As to Equal Chance promo-ing the sats, yes I agree

Nah there is always an easter festival in Brighton so i prefer to play that, especially this year with the SCOOP on it makes more sense to stay home.

opr = official poker rankings.

A site that offers FullTilt and PokerStars MTT tracking.

eg, Royal Flush's Pokerstars OPR

http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/pokerstars/MKKMOO/poker/results/2F9D5C2262924514B3B5C9E3BD5B242B.html?t=2







ido is actually Ldo (ldo)

internet acronym for "like doh obviously" often added at the end of sentences for no real reason whatsoever

As in the phrase;

James (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=186) Dempsey (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=186) has a losing record at Omaha high only tournaments on Pokerstars... ldo

the reason you think it makes no sense is because you've got the meaning wrong ldo

it's like duh obv, not doh

ldo

I knew that ldo, just mispelled duh

(http://www.pocketfiveslive.com/wp-content/gallery/wpt-championship-day-2-gallery/Tom%20Dwan%20a.JPG)
ldo

jokerstars is rigged, FACT. no doubt surely?

I'm confused, everybody I meet tell me they lose more flips than 50% etc etc...

where the fk are the people winning all the flips they should be losing?

anybody come across the thread 'losing faith in maths - must read - I can't lose a flip'

too busy spending their money?

too busy attributing the good outcome to their amazing play?

+1, or not even realising they are lucky.

I once lost 4 preflop all in's (when chip leader) to the same guy in about 7 hands at a tournament at DTD.

AK v K6 (6 made a flush), 66 v AK (AK made a flush), AT v A8 (A8 flopped an 8) and finally busted with A8 v T9s (T9s flopped a pair and the flush draw - made the flush when my Ace hit on the river).
I am sure he didn't think he was just very very lucky!!

 :hello:

 :hello: :hello:

Only a very select group of people will be capable of appreciating that pun.

I am one of that group.

FML.

I'm feeling blue (and a bum bum bum) because I'm that old too!

 :tikay:

poker is fixed, these are my last nights busts, sorry for questioning it. 

Stars

+++ QQ vs AJ +++ 16.15 - $44NL 7k gtd (6max)
+++ KK vs 55 +++ 17.00 - $22NL 30k gtd
+++ Q10 vs 66 +++ 17.15 - $11NL 20k gtd
+++ AQ vs QT +++ 18.00 - $22NL 3k gtd
+++ two pair vs FD +++ 18.15 - $27.50NL 3k gtd

Tilt

+++ AK vs A3 +++ 16.00 - $11NL 6max 
+++ AJ vs A9 +++ 16.00 - $75NL KO 15k gtd
+++ AQ vs QQ +++ 16.30 - $11 1r1a 7.5k*
+++ QJ vs T7 +++ 17.00 - $26NL 16k gtd


*obv not a beat

Has anybody sent the link to this thread to the major players at the big poker sites, they might have to change there ways...

House Points to Red & david3103, the only two who noticed.

I'm wasted here.

Extra Points go to david for "Esso Blue, bum bum bum", but I also deduct them for incorrect spelling - it's "Esso Blue, duum duum duum".

 :)up

but ...
duum?

r u sure?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NRbmfLVoWo

Call it a draw - it's "dum dum dum" it seems.

In those days, had they inferred or said "bum bum bum", Mary Whitehouse would have had a fit. A blue fit, no doubt.

Something similar? I would hope not. If your sample given is 'pure' and you have not left out any flips that went your way (leaving out the slight favs/dogs is ok) and it happened again then I would assume that something, somewhere is going on. You know the chances of what you said happened actually happening? You didn't leave out any of the flips you won, right?