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Bubble of $55 turbo
PokerStars Game #27097905522: Tournament #155933533, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/04/15 0:27:01 WET [2009/04/14 19:27:01 ET]
Table '155933533 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: neil_rick (3250 in chips)
Seat 6: Rodd_Hammers (3850 in chips)
Seat 8: mal666 (3520 in chips)
Seat 9: brutalizer20 (2880 in chips)
mal666: posts small blind 100
brutalizer20: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mal666 [Qh Ad]
neil_rick: raises 3050 to 3250 and is all-in
Rodd_Hammers: raises 600 to 3850 and is all-in

The shover neil_rick pushed last hand with  Kd 4h and was called by Rodd_Hammers with  Aspades Qs , the  Kd 4h making a str8 on the river.
Knowing how light neil pushes obv Rodd will be isolating with a large range here especially if he has a bit of the tilt monkey in him, so to our quandary fold or call?
In any mtt im snapping this 100% of the time regardless of the bubble but seing as this an stt how should our thought process change?
Scenario`s are
Call and beat both wich gives us a massive advantage to win outright
Call and lose to neil but beat rodd wich would leave me and rodd both crippled but battling for 3rd (he posts again before me but could fold both leaving him 30chips)
Call and rodd wins outright wich eliminates us with 3rd place $
Call and neil scoops but lose to rodd and we bubble
Or fold wich sees neil eliminated or rodd crippled barring some small split % obv.

Would be interested to see the icm outcome too if anyone can be arsed to crunch the numbers but really want to know your gut reaction.

This is a pass in a STT and I don't think it's close.

difference between squeaking into the money and 1st place in a STT is about 2.5 buy-ins

In an MTT it's typically > 50 buy-ins.

neil_rick had half the stack he has now when he shoved K4s

An 8 big bind button shove in a must gamble position is a whole world away from a 16 big blind UTG shove where his peers are all similarly stacked.

I think it would be wrong to assign too wide a range to neil_rick on this hand solely based on what he's pushed last hand.

You should really look at the ICM for this hand coz it's pretty interesting.

I put in the range for UTG as 11.5% which is A8s+, ATo+, KQs and 44+
(This is pretty loose for the situation, and includes some terrible shoves)

I put in the range for BTN as 7.6% which is ATs+, AJo+, 77+
(Again, this is a pretty loose range for the situation)

The result, AQo is a -7.88% of the prize pool play
That's a pretty huge number. In real terms it means (if the ranges I entered are accurate) then calling with AQo here costs you $39.00!!!

Change the Ace for another Queen and it's still a fold. With the ICM calcs I did with these ranges, you only call here with KK and AA.



Think the ranges should be looser. Just for a giggle I made them both push it in with a range of 100%, any two cards.

AQo is still a fold. Calling still costs you about $5 of equity.


So what have we learned today kids?

On the bubble of an STT when two players of similar stacks to you are already all-in, get to fuck and muck. :)

ICM math takes all this into account.

What tank said, i would need qq+ to get it in here.

Hand was played pretty poorly by utg and btn fwiw.

This is like porn to Tank & Longy, and they know they're porn, pretty sharp fold here...

Thanks Tank, fwiw here is the hh.
PokerStars Game #27097905522: Tournament #155933533, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/04/15 0:27:01 WET [2009/04/14 19:27:01 ET]
Table '155933533 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: neil_rick (3250 in chips)
Seat 6: Rodd_Hammers (3850 in chips)
Seat 8: mal666 (3520 in chips)
Seat 9: brutalizer20 (2880 in chips)
mal666: posts small blind 100
brutalizer20: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mal666 [Qh Ad]
neil_rick: raises 3050 to 3250 and is all-in
Rodd_Hammers: raises 600 to 3850 and is all-in
mal666: folds
brutalizer20: folds
Uncalled bet (600) returned to Rodd_Hammers
*** FLOP *** [Jc Qc Js]
*** TURN *** [Jc Qc Js] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Qc Js 4s] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neil_rick: shows [3d 3c] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
Rodd_Hammers: shows [Tc Td] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
Rodd_Hammers collected 6800 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6800 | Rake 0
Board [Jc Qc Js 4s 8c]
Seat 1: neil_rick showed [3d 3c] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Threes
Seat 6: Rodd_Hammers (button) showed [Tc Td] and won (6800) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 8: mal666 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: brutalizer20 (big blind) folded before Flop
Obv i passed, the atcx2 shoves = -$5 is a bit of an eye opener though tks again.

So sick that I put him on 44+ and he shows up with 33

Now I look silly. :)

I was going to say that I snap call here for the following reasons: -

There is no way that neil_rick has QQ+, hence you are at worst a coin flip against his range. Rodd could have a decent hand, but again most likely a good ace or a small pocker pair.

However, having read the post again, I notice that Rodd has you covered, hence I consider a fold here, which virtually guarantees you a spot in the money with a large enough stack to still win it.

If top two only get paid, i.e. 6 man SNG, then I call all day long.

Rodd if he has any idea (which he does as i play 45mans against him on stars) has a lot tighter range than this. In fact 10's is probably near the bottom of his range.

Calling in 6-max with a 65:35 payout would still be a really bad mistake, no matter what UTG and BTN's ranges are.

This includes excluding QQ+ and AKs from the top of UTG's range.

I fold.

I always prefer to do the pushing instead of the calling, and it's much better to guarantee yourself in the money as we all know how heads up can swing either way

Tank, can I ask your username / site? Its just that I play alot of 6 man SNG and would to see your stats.

Do the ICM if you disagree.

It's not a marginal thing.

Tank, I am not an ICM expert by anymeans; consequently I cannot say whether or not it even works.

However, I would balance any theory with practical experience and I play almost exclusively 6 man SNGs on ipoker with reasonable results.

If you could share your sharkscope results, I could guage a better view of your expertise on this matter.

I don't play 6-max.

Tank is simply giving you the ICM analysis (presumably from sngwiz) and ICM is the universally accepted best theoretical model for stts. Whether Tank decides to let you know his sn or not, suffice it to say he knows what he is talking about imo.

loving the swerves on the screen name request. gl on getting that info out of him scott

I pm'ed him my screen name as it's no massive secret.

It's just that I'm not a big fan of having to cite credentials before posting in strategy discussion is all. No big deal though.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=5334.0

See you next year.

Sandy

Tank/Longy, how easy is it to use an ICM calculator? Are they free or do you have to pay for them?

I have to admit when I saw the OP, I thought fold here. And also what a bad play by the guy who shoves 16BB.

I think if someone is throwing out opinions then you're entitled to balance their words against prior experience on the subject.

When they've actually given you the facts and figures and proven for all to see what the correct decision would be? Ought to be more than enough.