blonde poker forum

my missus is pretty good at betting , apart from poker (she wants to learn though)

she got a sign up bonus from bluesquare to play poker with, but has just told me she has bet on pakistan to get over 525.  at 5/6

they are 425-5 with a batsman to come back from going off yesterday with injury

i told her she did well in finding that bet

i think its a cracker -

just looked on betfair and seem the missis did well

to get over 525 is 1.1 on betfair

she took 5/6

Bet as much as you can on BlueSquare then lay on betfair?

Free money.

i wish i understood this stuff

Well if you can bet at bigger odds than you can lay then you are freerolling for bet.

If I can bet £10 at 3/1 and lay it at 2/1 then the following 2 outcomes are possible:

Win: Bet pays £30, have to pay £20 from laying. Profit £10.

Loss, Pay £10 bet, collect £10 from laying. Loss £0.

You can play with the figures to give a guaranteed return either way.

That help?

does that apply to all laying bets?
i.e. do you have to lay at a specific price v the betting odds?

To be guaranteed a return you need to lay at lower odds than you bet. (if you laid at higher you'd be guaranteed to lose).

Laying is just being the bookie.

Aaah IFM its called arbritrage betting IFM. Use to be a bit of 2nd income to me before poker, not particularly interesting but very profitable a few years back until bookies/ punters got more wise. As Bongo says that staking plan will guarentee you a profit.
The system can be applied with backing odds and then laying them on an exchange at a higher price. Or where most of the money is in the system which is backing two or more outcomes in event to cover all possibly outcomes. E.g A tennis match where you back both players if the odds match up. I use to like it cos it was basically a scam which was totally legal and took money away from those greedy bookies.
If you want to know anymore i could go on about it alot more but i won't bore everyone with it lol.
  

Feel free, it was something I looked into years ago when I discovered spread betting but never got a chance to get to grips with it, I fancy spending some time in the New Year looking for bargains. Work changes mean I will have more time on my hands

Right ok blame Roberthm for this  :D.

Arbritrage Betting

    Pronounced in a french accent is basically derived from the global futures market where people trade futures at a guarenteed profit. They buy a future at a certain price and agree to sell it on to someone in a couple of months time for a greater price. The most famous example being this is what Nick Leeson got himself in trouble trying to bend the rules in the far east doing it. You will hear it mentioned constantly by Ewan McGregor in Rogue Trader.

 This idea can be used in sports betting. With the advent of tax free betting and the internet the opportunities increased 100 fold in a couple of years. Bookmakers set odds on everything these days therefore there are events where there are limited amount of outcomes e. g Tennis Matches, Snooker Matches, Darts (2 outcomes) and Football (3 outcomes). So you can bet on each outcome and guarentee that you will have a winning bet on one of them.
 
  As we all know bookies build an overround into the odds they set on any event, so basically all their odds will give them about a 10% profit no matter what happens. Yet there are many bookmakers with different opinions on the likelihood of the outcome. Therefore you can play them off against one another and at some point the overround will swing in your favour if you managed to find the right odds.

  For example a tennis match played at next years wimbledon could look this:
                                                                Tim Henman  11/10 (2.10) Bookie A
                                                                Andy Murray   Evens  (2.00) Bookie B

This event has an underround 97.56% so a guarenteed 2.44% in our favour. So then if you place 100 on henman and 105 on murray you will place 205 all together.
On henman you will make 210 if he wins (100 * 2.1)
On murray you will make 210 also (105 * 2)

So a fiver made and you can stake more normally and therefore make more.

As mentioned above this can also be applied to backing and laying on exchanges. There are a few calculators about that do the maths for you oddschecker has one i think which allows you to put the % that the exchange take as well.

What you do need for this to make proper money is a big bankroll you prob could expect a profit of about 15% of your bankroll a month if you took alot of time doing it. I use to get my bank statement in about 4 envelopes because the amount of transactions i made a month. I was making 4 figures a month doing it at one stage tax free, yet my turnover was enough to buy a small house.

If anyone wants to ask anything fell free there is alot to it once you get into specifics, it is something i might go back to as i mull over options in my working life. i.e i could see doing this and poker as a full time income as a viable option.

Other than the example there is little there I wasn't aware of myself but that was a great explanation for those who are new to the concept. I tried to play the footie markets but the market makers were very aware of each others spreads and there was little opportunity to make a move. I want to branch out into other markets and my bankroll is a little bigger than when I was playing those restricted markets.

Looking forward to next year that little bit more now.

Oh yeah was going to say Robert that i never did it with spread betting because your liability in spread betting is too volatile also bookies are very aware of this. It is purely fixed odds betting i traded in, tennis was biggest profit making sport the grand slams were amazingly profitable, infact my bankroll couldn't sustain them there was too many opportunities. It was like christmas in the middle of summer.

<smacking lips> Can I give up work this year?

Nah not that naive to think it is simple

Ok, bear in mind i know NOTHING about gambling/betting.
Can someone explain how Iron can have the bets on the portsmouth job, how can he be on a freeroll?

because i back a manager as his price starts to drop then when it reaches its low i then lay the bet off

What ironside has done is not arbritrage betting but exchange trading. Arbritrage betting relies on locking up your profit at that very moment therefore it being completely risk free. While trading is taking an educated view that a price is too high and then waiting for the price to drop and lay off the bet at a lower price. There are many people about who make 1000's on betfair doing this.

well trading wise i have now taken a risk and laid redknapp to my max liabitly and now as the pirces increases on him i will sell off my liabity just hope the saints board doesnt come out and say harry FO to portsmouth in the next hour

i think i'll give up!!
seriously is there anywhere that teaches this stuff?