blonde poker forum

Payouts are I believe $210/$90 (70%/30%)

Given my info below, what should hero be calling with, and if you're Btn what do you push with?

Seat 3: BB/Hero( $3290.00 USD )
Seat 5: Btn ( $2740.00 USD )
Seat 10: SB ( $2970.00 USD )
SB posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to durrrrballs [ X X]
btn raises [$2740.00 USD]
SBfolds
Hero ??

Btn in this hand is a fellow BBP grader and is crushing the games for 15% roi over 600+, i'm fairly sure that this is the first bubble i've played against him, over 375 hands i have him at 25/14, although that's not really that important. The only three handed stats i have on him when he is the BTN and the BB is at least 200 is that over nine hands he's 37/25, so in short squat.

Bubble notes from this sit and go, Btn was big stack going into three handed play but two hands previous we doubled through him SBvsBB when we shoved 88 for about five bigs and got looked up by A-x (fairly standard IMO), we've seen him give the SB some walks, this could be for a number of reasons - wants to keep bubble alive, poor hands in SBvsBB situations, but he's also been pushing a good amount. In short we know he's good and can assume he 100% knows how to play the bubble, he's also aware that i'm a grader and i should also know correct bubble strat.

I've ran this hand through an ICM calc and a nash/icm calc (both obv assumes oppo plays perfect) ICM suggest we are risking $82.8 worth of equity to win $65.1 so need to be 56% against his range to break even (56x 65.1 = 3645.6, 44x82.8 =$3643.2) can someone comfirm my reasoning/maths is correct to this point.

I'm humble enough to admitt that this player is better at sit and gos than I, the other player in the hand is a significant loser but over a smaple size of <100 games. Given that should i be taking any edge in this spot, or should the really marginal decisions be folds as folding and being wrong in really tight spots is generally better than calling and being wrong in spots like this.

If there's any other info that would help you in making the decision that you feel i've left out, just ask, i don't have my HEM stats with me at work so can't add any info from them until tonight.

Button is probably pushing A6+, any pair, K10+, QJ, even something like 910 suited...

I would call with A10+, 77+

Given that he's crushing at 15% his range is absolutely massive here, no?..don't know what I'd call with or what is +EV to call with here to be honest..but KJ/KQ+ is probably it.

[X] Sits back waiting for one of the STT Gods to tell me how wrong I am

i like this line

I would virtually never call with K high here unless there is loads of history/he has pushed the button on 10 consecutive rounds...  We still have 10 BB's ish which is still a fair whack in an STT bubble situation...

Nice read, no wonder you've got a silver star on sharkscope on the ipoker network! Below is the range nash/icm says we should call with if we believe the btn is playing optimally.

PU   CA   OC   Range
BU         22.5%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s
   SB      7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+
      BB   3.9%, 99+ AKs AKo
   BB      8.4%, 77+ ATs+ ATo+

22.5% seems a bit lean to me, surely his range is going to be anywhere up to 50% here.

50% would be way too wide - unless your oppos were realy tight, it which case you could prob min raise - even allowing for a range as wide as 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo that is 30.6% of hands. I certainly don't shove that wide.