Title: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: Chompy on May 20, 2009, 03:19:22 PM Been looking at some poker prices to kill time.
Sportingbet bet as follows on the winning hand in the WSOP main event... 6/4 2 Pairs 5/2 1 Pair 19/4 Sraight Or Flush 11/2 Three of a kind 10/1 Full House, Four Of A Kind or Straight Flush 12/1 High card I think there's a cracking bet to be had here. Anyone got any views? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: The Camel on May 20, 2009, 03:22:16 PM Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: The Camel on May 20, 2009, 03:26:35 PM 33/1 Martin De Knijff to be top European player is huge value too. He only plays about 5 tournaments a year nowadays (he has got into sports betting) and has a stunning record:
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=65 I would make him about 14/1 in this list. Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: AndrewT on May 20, 2009, 03:28:49 PM Surely the WSOP final will be deep enough heads-up that they're not going to get AQ v KJ all-in pre-flop and miss. One of the two will have at least a pair to begin with.
Unless someone allows themselves to get blinded down to nothing, or a short stack watches the two bigger stacks knock each other out three-handed? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: maldini32 on May 20, 2009, 03:29:12 PM Been looking at some poker prices to kill time. Sportingbet bet as follows on the winning hand in the WSOP main event... 6/4 2 Pairs 5/2 1 Pair 19/4 Sraight Or Flush 11/2 Three of a kind 10/1 Full House, Four Of A Kind or Straight Flush 12/1 High card I think there's a cracking bet to be had here. Anyone got any views? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: Chompy on May 20, 2009, 03:30:24 PM 12/1 high card a big price imo
Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: The Camel on May 20, 2009, 03:33:07 PM Surely the WSOP final will be deep enough heads-up that they're not going to get AQ v KJ all-in pre-flop and miss. One of the two will have at least a pair to begin with. Unless someone allows themselves to get blinded down to nothing, or a short stack watches the two bigger stacks knock each other out three-handed? This is a good point. It would be a much better bet in one of the tv donkfests like the Poker Million or the 888.com Universe Open. But still at 12/1 I would take the chance. Should be half that price. Good luck getting a bet of more than £2 on with those tossers however. Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: Chompy on May 20, 2009, 03:34:19 PM I agree, just a good price in theory.
More chance of getting on with Bet£3.65 Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: EvilPie on May 20, 2009, 03:52:46 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.
AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: The Camel on May 20, 2009, 04:02:47 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Go on then. You've got me. How much can I have on at 16/1? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: EvilPie on May 20, 2009, 04:09:59 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Go on then. You've got me. How much can I have on at 16/1? How much do you want? Obviously don't need to do it now and my exposure limit is likely to change before November. At the moment it's low but it could improve. I assume you were only thinking of a friendly bet anyway, just slightly more than SportingOdds £2? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: The Camel on May 20, 2009, 04:13:05 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Go on then. You've got me. How much can I have on at 16/1? How much do you want? Obviously don't need to do it now and my exposure limit is likely to change before November. At the moment it's low but it could improve. I assume you were only thinking of a friendly bet anyway, just slightly more than SportingOdds £2? I'll have as much as you're comfortable laying. Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: Chompy on May 20, 2009, 04:18:57 PM I'll have £60 to win a bag if you're offering?
Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: TheChipPrince on May 20, 2009, 04:21:17 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: The Camel on May 20, 2009, 04:26:20 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: boldie on May 20, 2009, 04:58:09 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: EvilPie on May 21, 2009, 02:21:24 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. He didn't ruin it Boldie. I'm never going to risk £1k trying to win £60 anyway. I'm not interested enough in the £60 to bother tbh. I think if I was doing a lot of betting all the time I'd lay this one because I still think it's wrong. Certainly not massive. If I was risking any real money on it I would be doing a lot more studying before making the bet I can assure you. It would then be more like £16k to win £1k so it was worth doing. I'm sure that a quick scour through the net will find the winning hands in most recent WSOP ME, EPT, WPT etc. type tournaments. I'd be interested to know how many were actually won with High card. I wonder if it's more than 1 in 16? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: GreekStein on May 21, 2009, 02:23:39 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. He didn't ruin it Boldie. I'm never going to risk £1k trying to win £60 anyway. I'm not interested enough in the £60 to bother tbh. I think if I was doing a lot of betting all the time I'd lay this one because I still think it's wrong. Certainly not massive. If I was risking any real money on it I would be doing a lot more studying before making the bet I can assure you. It would then be more like £16k to win £1k so it was worth doing. I'm sure that a quick scour through the net will find the winning hands in most recent WSOP ME, EPT, WPT etc. type tournaments. I'd be interested to know how many were actually won with High card. I wonder if it's more than 1 in 16? Yo Matt, How is it not worth £1k to win £60 but its worth £16k to win £1k. Surely its the same thing no? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: EvilPie on May 21, 2009, 03:10:53 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. He didn't ruin it Boldie. I'm never going to risk £1k trying to win £60 anyway. I'm not interested enough in the £60 to bother tbh. I think if I was doing a lot of betting all the time I'd lay this one because I still think it's wrong. Certainly not massive. If I was risking any real money on it I would be doing a lot more studying before making the bet I can assure you. It would then be more like £16k to win £1k so it was worth doing. I'm sure that a quick scour through the net will find the winning hands in most recent WSOP ME, EPT, WPT etc. type tournaments. I'd be interested to know how many were actually won with High card. I wonder if it's more than 1 in 16? Yo Matt, How is it not worth £1k to win £60 but its worth £16k to win £1k. Surely its the same thing no? Odds wise yes of course but what am I going to do with £60 if I win it? If I win £1k I can actually do something with it. This is why I had to quit gambling. I'm not interested in winning small amounts, I want the lot!! Rouletette with 25p chips is nowhere near as much fun as roulette with £25 chips. Sure the odds are the same but where's the fun? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: GreekStein on May 21, 2009, 03:23:27 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. He didn't ruin it Boldie. I'm never going to risk £1k trying to win £60 anyway. I'm not interested enough in the £60 to bother tbh. I think if I was doing a lot of betting all the time I'd lay this one because I still think it's wrong. Certainly not massive. If I was risking any real money on it I would be doing a lot more studying before making the bet I can assure you. It would then be more like £16k to win £1k so it was worth doing. I'm sure that a quick scour through the net will find the winning hands in most recent WSOP ME, EPT, WPT etc. type tournaments. I'd be interested to know how many were actually won with High card. I wonder if it's more than 1 in 16? Yo Matt, How is it not worth £1k to win £60 but its worth £16k to win £1k. Surely its the same thing no? Odds wise yes of course but what am I going to do with £60 if I win it? If I win £1k I can actually do something with it. This is why I had to quit gambling. I'm not interested in winning small amounts, I want the lot!! Rouletette with 25p chips is nowhere near as much fun as roulette with £25 chips. Sure the odds are the same but where's the fun? Did you used to play roulette at Gala Notts Matt? Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: EvilPie on May 21, 2009, 03:33:40 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. He didn't ruin it Boldie. I'm never going to risk £1k trying to win £60 anyway. I'm not interested enough in the £60 to bother tbh. I think if I was doing a lot of betting all the time I'd lay this one because I still think it's wrong. Certainly not massive. If I was risking any real money on it I would be doing a lot more studying before making the bet I can assure you. It would then be more like £16k to win £1k so it was worth doing. I'm sure that a quick scour through the net will find the winning hands in most recent WSOP ME, EPT, WPT etc. type tournaments. I'd be interested to know how many were actually won with High card. I wonder if it's more than 1 in 16? Yo Matt, How is it not worth £1k to win £60 but its worth £16k to win £1k. Surely its the same thing no? Odds wise yes of course but what am I going to do with £60 if I win it? If I win £1k I can actually do something with it. This is why I had to quit gambling. I'm not interested in winning small amounts, I want the lot!! Rouletette with 25p chips is nowhere near as much fun as roulette with £25 chips. Sure the odds are the same but where's the fun? Did you used to play roulette at Gala Notts Matt? 'fraid so mate. Had to give up though because of afformentioned only wanting to play for lots of money problem. It's nice when you win but can hurt when it goes wrong. Title: Re: Interesting WSOP bet Post by: GreekStein on May 21, 2009, 03:43:35 PM If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway. AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve. This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway. So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40. One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1 Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say you just had to go an ruin it, didn't you? 12-1 is abs massive.. strange thing to bet on though. He didn't ruin it Boldie. I'm never going to risk £1k trying to win £60 anyway. I'm not interested enough in the £60 to bother tbh. I think if I was doing a lot of betting all the time I'd lay this one because I still think it's wrong. Certainly not massive. If I was risking any real money on it I would be doing a lot more studying before making the bet I can assure you. It would then be more like £16k to win £1k so it was worth doing. I'm sure that a quick scour through the net will find the winning hands in most recent WSOP ME, EPT, WPT etc. type tournaments. I'd be interested to know how many were actually won with High card. I wonder if it's more than 1 in 16? Yo Matt, How is it not worth £1k to win £60 but its worth £16k to win £1k. Surely its the same thing no? Odds wise yes of course but what am I going to do with £60 if I win it? If I win £1k I can actually do something with it. This is why I had to quit gambling. I'm not interested in winning small amounts, I want the lot!! Rouletette with 25p chips is nowhere near as much fun as roulette with £25 chips. Sure the odds are the same but where's the fun? Did you used to play roulette at Gala Notts Matt? 'fraid so mate. Had to give up though because of afformentioned only wanting to play for lots of money problem. It's nice when you win but can hurt when it goes wrong. Mate I think I remember you from my gala days! Used to come in on a saturday afternoon with a leather jacket? You're not exactly small now but were you bigger then too? |