Title: ICM Question Post by: T_Mar on July 18, 2009, 10:56:10 PM Small stake turbo MTT on stars, down to final 4, the 2 shorter stacks have tightened up trying to ladder - The big stack has been pushing each time its folded to him. Should I be calling or folding the following 2 hands.. obv I'm ahead of his range in both but thinking about the impact of having 2 shorter stacks and the payouts etc
If any ICM gurus can advise what the right move is would be appreciated Payouts as follows: 1st $825 2nd $601 3rd $443 4th $334 Seat 3: xTheWall (109015 in chips) Seat 7: devinr12 (464589 in chips) Seat 8: T_Mar79 (205756 in chips) Seat 9: AyoungmoneyA (161140 in chips) xTheWall: posts the ante 1000 devinr12: posts the ante 1000 T_Mar79: posts the ante 1000 AyoungmoneyA: posts the ante 1000 T_Mar79: posts small blind 4000 AyoungmoneyA: posts big blind 8000 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to T_Mar79 [5s 5d] xTheWall: folds devinr12: raises 455589 to 463589 and is all-in T_Mar79: ??? Seat 3: xTheWall (89265 in chips) Seat 7: devinr12 (500839 in chips) Seat 8: T_Mar79 (207006 in chips) Seat 9: AyoungmoneyA (143390 in chips) xTheWall: posts the ante 1250 devinr12: posts the ante 1250 T_Mar79: posts the ante 1250 AyoungmoneyA: posts the ante 1250 T_Mar79: posts small blind 5000 AyoungmoneyA: posts big blind 10000 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to T_Mar79 [Ts Tc] xTheWall: folds devinr12: raises 489589 to 499589 and is all-in T_Mar79: ??? Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: GreekStein on July 18, 2009, 11:54:19 PM You have to call TT
Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: Blatch on July 19, 2009, 08:18:23 AM 1) Fold
2) Call Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: Ironside on July 19, 2009, 09:18:49 AM Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: T_Mar on July 19, 2009, 10:39:34 AM Right I've attempted to follow Longy's ICM calcs to work these out (never done these before so I probably fcuked it up, if anyone can be arsed to check em would be appreciated).......At the time I folded the 5's and called the 10's btw
I used following range (tried with and without JJ-AA, AK thinking he may not be open shoving these, but I dont really know - it doesn't make a whole heap of difference to the answer tho) equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 53.685% 53.19% 00.49% 2191328124 20376744.00 { 55 } Hand 1: 46.315% 45.82% 00.49% 1887721812 20376744.00 { TT-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 68.103% 67.67% 00.44% 2551385376 16434084.00 { TT } Hand 1: 31.897% 31.46% 00.44% 1186239864 16434084.00 { TT-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o } He may of been pushing even wider but had to guess at something Hand 1 Fold = $548 Call and win = $656 Call and Lose = $0 .53*656 = 347.68 = Clear fold Hand 2 Fold = $555 Call and win = $660 Call and lose = 0 .68*660 = $448 = Clear Fold So assuming this lot is correct (?!) looks like I made bad call with the 10's Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: doubleup on July 19, 2009, 11:54:21 AM Dont think you've done that correctly as you have 4th prize locked up. Do the calc again with 3rd 109 2nd 267 1st 491.
I suspect that TT might still come up as a fold, but closer. Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: T_Mar on July 19, 2009, 12:17:49 PM Dont think you've done that correctly as you have 4th prize locked up. Do the calc again with 3rd 109 2nd 267 1st 491. I suspect that TT might still come up as a fold, but closer. ok, tried again for TT hand... hopefully this is correct?? fold = $223 call and win = $326 .68*326 = 221.68 So its actually pretty borderline! cheers Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: Moskvich on July 19, 2009, 01:24:51 PM Yep, think it's borderline. You need a lot of pot equity against him and if he's got even one overcard it isn't that fantastically exciting a spot to be in. Wiz reckons that if he's shoving 40% you can only call JJ+. And if he's shoving 100% then you can only call 88+ (no unpaired hands). Don't imagine anyone's actually folding TT here though. The 55 is a big fold - 88+ AKs is a call if he's shoving 100%.
Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: outragous76 on July 19, 2009, 01:56:26 PM i think you are looking at thos too marginally
If you hadnt made the money - i would agree u could fold TT HOWEVER - you have, and you are talking about pay scales. The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win. If he has been open shoving his range is ATC. TT has this so crushed that this is a fist pump snap call (whereas if you havent made the money it is a trivial fold). There is not enough chip disparity between you and the others to make this a fold EVER if it was like CL = 500k you 350k v1 = 120k v2 = 95k then you could argue there was a possible fold. In this case you can never fold. Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: doubleup on July 19, 2009, 02:43:02 PM The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win. What? Its either a call or a fold based on the remaining payouts. What more info is required? Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: Moskvich on July 19, 2009, 03:20:38 PM The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win. What? Its either a call or a fold based on the remaining payouts. What more info is required? +1 to the what? ... I'm not quite sure what you mean, but I think you might be thinking that ICM is simply a synonym for "it's a disaster when you call on the bubble and lose so you have to call very tight". As doubleup points out, it does of course take into account the rewards as well as the risks of making a call. In this case, one of the things it's taking into account is that the rewards of winning this hand with TT aren't actually that massive - we'll go from 2nd in chips to a non-dominant chip lead. In other circumstances, with different chip stacks, of course the answer would be different. (One thing that it admittedly doesn't take into account is whether the chips gained when you win give you a bigger edge on the field than you've got at the moment - ie if it's the case that winning this hand then allows you to steal more than your share of blinds, because of the way they're playing, or something). Quote whereas if you havent made the money it is a trivial fold Not sure what you mean by this either - seems a bit of a sweeping statement... You mean in this situation, with these stacks, but only three places paid? Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: celtic on July 19, 2009, 04:10:29 PM Fck ICM. A= Fold B= Call. Quite simple imo.
Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: Blatch on July 19, 2009, 04:12:59 PM for ICM you also need to factor in your edge factor, obviously this is different for each player and his opponents
Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: doubleup on July 19, 2009, 04:15:41 PM Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: T_Mar on July 19, 2009, 04:18:53 PM i think you are looking at thos too marginally If you hadnt made the money - i would agree u could fold TT HOWEVER - you have, and you are talking about pay scales. The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win. If he has been open shoving his range is ATC. TT has this so crushed that this is a fist pump snap call (whereas if you havent made the money it is a trivial fold). There is not enough chip disparity between you and the others to make this a fold EVER if it was like CL = 500k you 350k v1 = 120k v2 = 95k then you could argue there was a possible fold. In this case you can never fold. This makes no sense to me... if I hadn't made the money then I would be trying to accumulate chips as normal by getting it in with the best of it.... ie This situation would be a clear call as I am ~2/1 fav against the range i used....... Its because of the fact that we are in the money and the decision has a bearing on the amount we going to make that its a borderline decison Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: Blatch on July 19, 2009, 04:21:40 PM i think you are looking at thos too marginally If you hadnt made the money - i would agree u could fold TT HOWEVER - you have, and you are talking about pay scales. The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win. If he has been open shoving his range is ATC. TT has this so crushed that this is a fist pump snap call (whereas if you havent made the money it is a trivial fold). There is not enough chip disparity between you and the others to make this a fold EVER if it was like CL = 500k you 350k v1 = 120k v2 = 95k then you could argue there was a possible fold. In this case you can never fold. This makes no sense to me... if I hadn't made the money then I would be trying to accumulate chips as normal by getting it in with the best of it.... ie This situation would be a clear call as I am ~2/1 fav against the range i used....... Its because of the fact that we are in the money and the decision has a bearing on the amount we going to make that its a borderline decison If were on the bubble then TT is an instant fold to the chip leader shove, were only considering it now as were in the money Title: Re: ICM Question Post by: outragous76 on July 19, 2009, 04:48:27 PM The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win. What? Its either a call or a fold based on the remaining payouts. What more info is required? +1 to the what? ... In this case, one of the things it's taking into account is that the rewards of winning this hand with TT aren't actually that massive - we'll go from 2nd in chips to a non-dominant chip lead. In other circumstances, with different chip stacks, of course the answer would be different. ( You raised the point i was making - but i think get it wrong! Having twice 2nd place's stack leaves you at a huge advantage - infact you essentially swap places with him. So you end up with a very dominant position by calling and winning The point I am making here is that the tourney situation changes dramatically with you as a huge CL ICM NEVER factors this in, but in this situation it is critically important, especially with everyone in the money |