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Title: Stats reliant decision... Post by: MC on July 24, 2009, 03:07:56 PM $6.50 45 man on Stars, it looks like 2 tables left but it might be 3.
This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. I'm playing too many tables to recall any of his action. Anyway, is this now a fist pump call? Or is it a borderline call or is it still right to fold? Blinds are still low and we could wait for a better spot? Or he could have Ax so often that we should call?... ***** Hand History for Game 30819928699 ***** (Poker Stars) Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, July 24, 02:16:31 ET 2009 Table 181793488 5 (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Seat 1: jer123 ( $3105.00 USD ) Seat 3: FishBone89 ( $3630.00 USD ) Seat 4: peewee132 ( $2375.00 USD ) Seat 5: epitomised ( $3955.00 USD ) Seat 6: orcun2704 ( $6910.00 USD ) Seat 7: fredmccoino ( $1200.00 USD ) Seat 8: CoinFlipAK ( $3050.00 USD ) FishBone89 posts small blind [$50.00 USD]. peewee132 posts big blind [$100.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to epitomised [ Jc Ac ] epitomised raises [$275.00 USD] orcun2704 folds fredmccoino folds CoinFlipAK raises ALL-IN [$3050.00 USD] jer123 folds FishBone89 folds peewee132 folds epitomised ............ Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: boldie on July 24, 2009, 03:14:18 PM 25% 3 bet? yeah the sample is very small but I'd be leaning towards calling.
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: GreekStein on July 24, 2009, 03:28:25 PM just spite call anyway. fuck him
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: ALASKAN5IVE on July 26, 2009, 06:47:47 AM just spite call anyway. fuck him + 1 and you've got the ACE of green and the JACk of green, the villain is gonna be struggling to win imo Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: salfi on July 26, 2009, 07:03:22 AM as ive played a few of these games with this perticular villain i can 100percent say fist pump back flip snap call. he is a spastick in these spots and shoves super wide. any suited ace pp or k10plus from the hands ive got. is gambly gambly but against his range its plus ev. trouble opening ya hand here often in general is win the blinds or lose a big pot. not a lot in the middle with the satck sixes behind. salfi on stars.
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: thetank on July 26, 2009, 09:16:31 AM I can't call this.
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: salfi on July 26, 2009, 11:40:49 AM stack sizes behind its ment to say from earlier post not sixes. mis type error.
most people wont call this but 45s are my fav game and this is read dependent as i feel this villain abuses the the spaz out over the top option. im guessin as usual u call and villain happens to be at the top of his range. in general with no read its a fold. Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: salfi on July 26, 2009, 11:47:59 AM i have some notes on epto aswell incidentally. :) :)
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: Newportlad on July 26, 2009, 12:56:25 PM I fold here as well.
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: MC on July 26, 2009, 01:10:58 PM Interesting thoughts.
I actually folded, but as soon as I passed I regretted it. I think against this particular opponent it's a call. I've come across you once or twice Salfi, I'm kinda trying to duplicate ur success in these atm :) Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: salfi on July 26, 2009, 01:21:26 PM im hoping i can duplicate my success as im about to get back into the online grind over the next few days . coming to get ya :) :)
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: LeKnave on July 26, 2009, 10:00:52 PM This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. yeah sample is way too small to flick it in here Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: doubleup on July 26, 2009, 10:13:53 PM This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. yeah sample is way too small to flick it in here Thread about this http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=10933141&an=0&page=0#Post10933141 Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: maldini32 on July 26, 2009, 10:36:30 PM Snap fold
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: LeKnave on July 26, 2009, 10:38:20 PM This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. yeah sample is way too small to flick it in here Thread about this http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=10933141&an=0&page=0#Post10933141 ty, looks good will read later. Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: thetank on July 26, 2009, 11:43:28 PM This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. yeah sample is way too small to flick it in here Thread about this http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=10933141&an=0&page=0#Post10933141 Good post that Cliffnotes... If random is playing like a crazy but you've only seen him for one orbit, proceed as if 80% of the time he is a crazy and only 20% is he a normal player on a good run of cards. Summating quote... " I could have used several different situations or tweaked different variables, but still arrived at the same general point: lots of aggression in a small sample size can be surprisingly significant data, and we can't afford to ignore it. " Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: salfi on July 27, 2009, 03:27:43 AM i have many more then 6 hands on the villain and a few showdowns. evidence suggests fist pump moonwalk bite hand off jaws style.
Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: LuckyLloyd on July 27, 2009, 07:47:05 PM This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. yeah sample is way too small to flick it in here Thread about this http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=10933141&an=0&page=0#Post10933141 Fair play. Title: Re: Stats reliant decision... Post by: MC on July 28, 2009, 09:31:25 AM This would usually be a standard pass, but villain has stats of 36/30 with a 3bet of 25% over a sample of 32 hands. I realise this is a small sample, and sometimes this can be deceptive. yeah sample is way too small to flick it in here Thread about this http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=10933141&an=0&page=0#Post10933141 Good post that Cliffnotes... If random is playing like a crazy but you've only seen him for one orbit, proceed as if 80% of the time he is a crazy and only 20% is he a normal player on a good run of cards. Summating quote... " I could have used several different situations or tweaked different variables, but still arrived at the same general point: lots of aggression in a small sample size can be surprisingly significant data, and we can't afford to ignore it. " +1, thanks for that link double up, good summation tank ;) lol@moonwalk call, that's a new one for me :) |