blonde poker forum

just got back from dtd ,and called down to the whole sale market in sheffield .
i was talking to the father of lance bets and he tells me to get some money on STRIKE MASTER ,IN THE  NOTTINGHAM .
his son is riding it ,brian ellison has told the stable lads to make up there wages on this .

sorry 3.15 notts.

Ok, cheers.  8)

[  ] On it.

[                 ]         glad to see you still taking the pi    ss.

Don't worry Baz, Kin is fucking bum bandit.

don't let me down Barry.

You'd be upset if I didn't.

:D

Baz this horse looks a good thing and I am tempted to get on but...................

are you sure it will handle the going?  Its last good run was on good ground and the going today is heavy?

In fact done nothing but piss down for 2 days now.

Did the trainer mention this when you had a word?

It may need to be able to swim the way things are going...

Yes raining cats & dogs now with thunder and lightning for good measure

Looks a good bet but you need to know if it can run in wellies. Talk earlier Notts might be abandoned.

It's run right up to form on heavy before, admittedly over much shorter trips but it should handle the surface no worries. If it stays 2 miles on heavy it wins imo.

got 15/8 on Skybet earlier should I lay it now on betfair at 7/5?

I wouldn't, laying back is rarely a good idea. Once betfair have their commission you're probably not that far off break even. Let it ride.

 ;carlocitrone;

 rotflmfao

I'll take the original advice on the betting side, but I do see what bolt is getting at and I share his sceptcicism

All I can do is provide good advice, it doesn't matter much if you want to take it on board. Ask Keith what he thinks, if you are betting within your bankroll and have identified genuine value why would you want to get out?

 ;carlocitrone;

Yes I am On

Need to fund the Lobster pot weekend somehow

Can anyone think of a more succesful sports bettor than Tony Bloom?

He says he like to take position rather than hedging, and he says once he has taken a position he won't even follow the action closely. "You've either got value or you haven't. You've either made a good bet or you haven't. I believe in betting aggressively and in order to win big, you have to risk losing"

Quoted from an interview he gave to Michael Atherton.

He's made tens of millions. Why doubt that it's good advice?

well it's not you saying it is it then?

first you say ask kieth, then quote tony bloom.

we were asking you.

if you're millionares like them it's a bit more applicable.

in order to get know whether you have value or not you need to be able to price the book up yourself and your book ha to be better than the odds compilers long term. Its notgettin value if u take 4/5 at hills when its 4/6 everywhere else unless its 1/2 in your book. People misunderstand the concept of value.

I agree, you have to back your judgement and go with it sometimes even if the trade opportunity is there close to kick-off...

If you simply spot an opportunity to arb a bet, and your there simply to do that, thats sligtly different, go ahead and lock it up, arb away...

I was agreeing with bolt that there were circumstances where I could see laying back as being a very good idea ;)

Surely it can be my opinion irrelevant of from who or where I learnt it. It's probably the most common way there is of acquiring knowledge, learning from people who know more about something than you do.

Dont expect this horse to lead should be held up for a late run.


Might be worth backing in running at a better price.

I have held a little back

gl

One time the baz tipping machine

Nice on baz, thx.


Lay  Backer's
Odds  Backer's
Stake   Payout  Liability 
Strikemaster  2.42  £2.00  £4.84 £2.84 

Thankfully managed to lay off at 1.1. 

If Horneris or Camel doesn't post it, I aint punting on it.

UL Barry

Ive been a punter for 12 years from when i was getting into catford at 16, my uncle owned greyhounds in the 80's at the stow and my dad is one of the best handicappers you could meet, has chopped more placepots from meetings with huge handicaps in for serious dough than you could count,  i know about as much as this game as i know about anything else and ive learned from other people you're right but ive also adapted a lot of my own ideas about the game, things i know, things ive learned, original concepts ive come up with etc and i know from my experience that saying: "laying back is rarely a good idea" is a statement i dont agree with at all, it goes against my personal experience of the game and my generic understanding of more broader concepts of which i'm aware.

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

Ask kieth if you like, i'd be surprised if he agreed with such a constraining statement as: "laying back is rarely a good idea"

TY.

Lay  Backer's
Odds  Backer's
Stake   Payout  Liability  
Strikemaster  2.56  £2.00  £5.12 £3.12  
Ref: Bet matched:  
  £2.00

frankie nicked that one, rare good ride by frankie

Gutted

perfect race and then beaten by a horse that has done FA in its life.

[ ]  layed in running for a very healthy profit

Nice tip Baz u run as good as me

Rookie / Honeris -  WTF is that about posting your £2 lay

odds on fav, ul

Certainly when betting on golf, I find it invaluable to be able to lay back and I've been far more profitable since i could do that on BF.

I think Tony Bloom made a lot of his money on tennis and football and I would imagine that laying back on match-bets which are always going to be shortish odds would not be such an advantage.

So basically the bigger the price the greater the advantage in laying back imho.

If 2-1 is the correct price you are just reducing variance.  If it is too short then your +ev from the lay-off is independent from your 1st bet and if it is too long your lay-off is a loser.  So where does the huge +EV come from?

banter

Oh are they still at school?

so i'll just sit there and watch a horse ive backed @7/1 contract to 2/1 and do nothing about my position instead choosing to have a wank about how exciting it all is.

Ul Barry, nasty to improve that much from his last run and find one too good.

Your answer entertaining tho it is, does not explain where the huge ev comes from.
Do you believe that the 2-1 is too short or not?

lol, dont worry i understand what you're saying, it's why i gave the example of recieving a tip from someone else.

I have no belief, if i studied the race the horse would be much of a muchness and i wouldnt have a clue about the horse, i wanted to use an example removed from my own personal opinion so i could focus on the mathmatics of it otherwise i wouldve simply said.........."you fancy a horse at 7/1" etc.

I rarely hedge.

The only time I would is if (for example) I make a horse 5/1, I bet it at 8/1 and it gets backed into 3/1.

Then I make it a good value lay at 3/1.

But in practice a selection rarely moves enough in the market to make it value to back and lay.

Oh by the way.. had a good message for Laureldean Spirit in the 5.10.

Worth a bet at 3/1 or better.

heaevn, ty Keith.

This.

He may look like a mug, but Trigg speaks sense sometimes.

this  ::)

did`nt see the race as i have only just got up .
the distance`s was 3 lengths and 17 lengths wtf.
did it lead and die or come with a rattle?.

just my f....g luck.

had 9/4 this morning as well .

Why sleep so long Baz? Not like you need the beauty sleep, Stu Hopkin said you're already the prettiest thing he's ever seen. If you don't believe me I can prove it from an msn convo.

Stuart says:
Hi Cos
Cos Says:
Hello Stuart
Stuart Says:
I am a clown
Cos says:
Yes, I know.
Stuart:
Oh btw before I forget, Barry Neville is the most beautiful man I ever saw.
Cos says:
Ok mate, I'm going offline now.

fucking hell Barry!
now you're on my list :-)

what a waste of £2! :-)

pmsl, good one.

lol i sure put that, Camels given me 2/3 winnars.

Nice casino quote tho.