blonde poker forum

playing live at the casino.
Time has run out and you face the chipcount, there are 6 players remaining and you have 35,000 in chips.
You are playing the very last hand of the tourny (last 3 hands announced and 2 played) when this happens:-
There is a player at the table who is more than capable of taking advantage of the situation (he has raised the last 2 hands and taken the blinds 3k and 6k).
In fact when the final tablecommenced there a mini discussion about the player raising with junk and basically being aggressive (he denied this, though several of the players including yourself agreed it was true).
Now you are in the small blind and player "A" raises for the third hand in a row, all fold to you and you look down and see AJ offsuit.
Bearing in mind this is the very last hand, the chipcount will give you around £250 if you fold, if you lose the hand you are guaranteed £110 but if you win you get £500.
He has you outchipped.
What do you do?

fold is what u should do, dont know if I could though

You are getting nearly 2/1 on a call (25/14) so if you think that it is more likely than 2/1 that he is 'at it' then you must call.

Your win loss percentage compared to the fold is +250/-140. or just shy of 2/1

Me personally I gamble, depends on how important the 250 as it stands is to you

AJ would be winning I think, but of course who knows

Gamble

shove it in

We are all very liberal with other peoples money arn't we? Even if you are ahead it doesnt automatically justify the call there are still 5 cards to come and anything is possible. Only person that can make the decision is you as its what the cash means to you personally that counts here.

boooo. scrooge.

shove it in!!!  :D

Get it in!

Release....You have all had a discussion about this, and as you said he is very well aware of it. so I'm putting him on a hand here JJ looks good to me.. A player buying pots is aware of how it looks to the table..this is were they get the value when they do hold a hand...FOLD

Maybe he's aware that you know he knows that you know he raises with rubbish and so still raises with rubbish to fool you.

Was his raise enough to take you all in?

If you're reraising would he call with a losing hand?

Now Snoop you may have to play me later today if you make the final table I should get some sleep m8!! ;)

Sounds like fighting talk to me.  ;ifm;

Put em up PUP!

Not wise jezza. I'm built like a tank.

... sort of.

It was a full pot sized raise......21k.........he's commited as you would be.

It seems a close decision so far, with the "shove 'em in" slightly ahead.
I shall reveal the outcome at 1am folks.................

Yes i had thought about this, however it is still a huge risk he would be taking, to keep buying pots when everyone is aware he's been "at it" 

I may well be wrong, but i would be folding here.

thing is m8 AJ os is not a great hand and not likley to be a big enough favourite against enough hands to risk it . I would probably push cos I am a gambler but I dont really think it is the right decision

You don't even need to be a favourite to make money on the hand!

All-in, for reasons that have already been mentioned regarding 2-1 and he's likely to have hee-haw etc so you'll be 60%ish to win.

Are they getting pissed off at the table waiting for your desicion, nobody called a clock on you yet?

If you're built like the ;chieften; you'll need to get yourself down the gym more :D

Push

He's enjoying the drama :redcard:

No you dont but with that rational you should push here with any two cards.

Pretty much, what's the problem with that?

No problem at all tank. If all my chips are going to the center I want them to go there with cards that are favourite to win thats all.

But in this situation that costs you money.

Drumroll please..............................................................................................................................................
Bet you never guessed this :D
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The numpty called!!!!!!
I had ACES!!  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

AAAAAAYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!

yayayay,

I thought you said you had AJ, does that mean you hit an ace on the board?

What was the minimum you'd have raised with in that situation though IFM?

Sorry its getting late and I am missing something - How does it cost you money?


IFM well played , even tho those who said you shouldnt call admitted they probably would! Nice cash.

Ok i'm lost here, I thought you had AJ........who the feck had what?

LOL, i was the "other" fella..........the guy with the AJ called MY raise  ;karabiner;

It was a clever backwards problem wotsit!

What did you have the previous 2 hands that you raised with?

lol...i think he's saying, hes the one who was stealing and the other bloke had AJ...n1
  ooops...i wrote this as u wrote yours ifm.

Nice one, so my fold was good.

Play and lose = -£140
Play and win = +£250

More to be gained by winning than lost by winning.

So it's a +EV call to make even if you're less than 50% to win the hand. When we pass up a +EV oppurtunity we are said to have have cost ourselves money.

You smart little bugger you  lol

Very Crafty

I just thought it was an interesting conundrum, i think i'd have folded myself.
£150 is not to be sniffed at no matter how much money you have.
I had raised the previous 2 hands with 78 suited and K9 offsuit, as i said they really didn't wanna get involved.

Thanks Tank . This does not apply to tournament situations tho IMHO

But this is the last hand before a chip count, it plays a more like a cash game.

The guy with AJ only needed to win the pot 36% of the time to be +EV. I think he made the right play and was unlucky to run into the aces.

I agree with you 100% Tank.

Bongo is right. This is more like a cash game as it's the last hand, very simple and clear cut in terms of the EV calculation.

It does apply in tournaments, although you have to factor in things like tournament survival into the EV calculation. This can be complex and relys on judgement rather than hard numbers as it depends on so many variables.
 

Look at the previous 2 hands, he'd have been right to call there.

I dont agree that a call here with aj is right. I understand that EV wise it is the correct call but you are going to be walking out of the casino with a gtd £250 if you choose not to play this hand . Other factors come into play here and turn it into a situation that cannot be governed totally by the calculation.

True, sometimes you need to pass up on a +EV situation if you don't have an adequate bankroll or the money to be made by walking away will make a big difference to your life and/or bankroll. I can only say that I would have made the call. If his bankroll was very low then perhaps the right thing to have done would be to walk away.

If bankroll considerations are coming into play then you shouldn't be in the game in the first place.

If you pass here you are costing yourself money.

If can't call here then you don't have the gamble in you to win NLHE tournaments.

Lose the fear, win the money.

Interesting point that, we all agreed to bung the waitresses at the end except the fella who got the bottom prize £260.
He said as he'd gotten the least he shouldn't bung.
My argument is that it's x amount of profit i.e. money he was prepared to not have, so he should bung like the rest of us.

If it's a tip, then I suppose he doesn't have to, but it's a bit cheeky.

Don't get me wrong, if he doesn't want to tip then it's entirely up to him. I have no problem with that, it's his reason i didn't get.

Would u have been happy if he'd bunged, but slighlty less than you guys?

He's not going to say 'I'm not giving a £10 because I'm a mean git' is he?

OK I understand why everyone refers to math in poker, I do it myself, but it seems, that everyones decisions are made by the math.

I think I would have taken other factors in to consideration, for 1 is my blind worth defending with A J os, probably not. 2 is this bloke at it, probably but there is no point in getting in to a pissing war on the last hand " with a weak hand". 3 Have I managed to get a read on this bloke if not, then its probably best to fold.

I aggree that the math says call, I would fold because poker does not end with the session you are in for the long term.

That's an argument that supports calling, not folding.

That's precisely why you must call....

Beat you to the punch there Wardonkey :D

We seem to be on the same wavelength tonight.

ifm well done on todays comeback. gold star for ifm *g

I dont aggree, OK If it was me in my currenbt position, I would have folded and taken the money rather than risking it.  I know its a safe play but unless I have a solid read on my opponent, there is no good reason to gamble IMO.

I am thinking of the profit that pays the bills and puts food on the table.  I know this is a very safe play but why gamble when you really dont have to.  I would rather replenish my bankroll, take half of the profit give it to the wife and take solice that I had a decent night at the table.  

Jeeze I sound like knish from rounders.

It depends. If you play for a social thing then by all means pass.

However people who are talking about "bankroll" should be calling. If £100 odd quid makes that much difference to your bankroll you need to find a smaller game.

The £100 makes no difference to the bankroll, but I think in real terms, the extra £100 is petol in the car and some shopping from tesco.  Again this is only my opinion and it will probably change when I am working full time again.

Well done on the result, the Post, & a great thread. Trust YOU to have us all guessing back to front!

Wardonkey and The Baron mentioned that if bankroll considerations are coming into play the you shouldn't be playing in this game. In a cash game this is certainly the case.

However, this is a final table in a tournament, someone for whom £140 would make a big difference to their bankroll may not have necessarily been playing outside their means. Some, who have reached final tables in massive tournaments, have knowingly sacrificed EV due to bankroll considerations. On a smaller scale the principle is the same.

If they had a bigger roll, they would be able to play properly and make the call, however, just because they don't have the backing to play this situation optimally and extract maximum EV does not mean that the tournament should not have been entered by them. It may still have contained some +EV even though they sacrifice some by playing the later stages too tight weak.

Experience gained from playing this tournament also adds to their future EV for playing subsequent tournaments.

Seperating your bankroll from your 'real life' money helps you to make the optimal desicions at the table. If you raise 3*BB instead of raising three pork chops and a bag of potatoes it's easier to play a good game.

ROFLMAO, I mean when it comes to cashing, or in the last few hands thats when I think in realistic terms. not for the whole night.  when the money is in play then I play my best possible game. All i am saying is with it being the last hand I would have folded and those were my reasons. No more no less. I would have played it safe. I know its the wrong play but its the last hand, and I would rather not risk the larger portion of my stack. Again its just my opinion.

This isn't really about about bankrolls, it's a £10 rebuy comp. Most of the people playing in this type of comp don't worry about poker bankrolls. The money they are using comes from the money they would otherwise spend on dinner out or clothes they don't need. Similarly when they win, the money does not go back into a poker bankroll, but gets spent on having a damn good time.

The maths say call, the serious poker player says call. If however you are a recreational player who can't bear to lose the extra £140 Christmas money that you will get for definate if you pass then by all means pass.

I am going to sound a bit too work orientated now, I dont know the value of the comp (I have assumed its £10) If you were guaranteed £110 if you got knocked out then that must be 6th place?) I am also assuming that it is 1000pts for £10. Making the total prize around £2200. If paying 10 prizes I assume that 6th is approx 5% Taking 11% off prize money already paid out leaving £1958 and taking 6 x £110 out leaves £1298 makes 1000pts worth £0.0059 x 35,000 gives a prize of £206.50 on top of the £110 making it £316.50, as I have approximately a sixth of the chips on the table and I would be receiving more than 3rd place I must fold. Obviously the prize structure must be slightly different or maybe I got it completely wrong. I was just bored and decided to work it out on my prize structure. Just killing time before I took the kids to school :D

Turned into a great debate this huh?
Fascinating stuff, i have already said i would probably have folded in this situation though i was maybe (just maybe) at-it a little bit in the final and as such i was prepared to risk 9th, 8th, 7th or 6th in order to get a better finish.
I think that as it was the last hand it influences the decision, from the opinions here though that really shouldn't come in to it i suppose.
This also shows the advantage of table image, it never occured to him that i had a monster hand.
A downside of the same image is that the fella to my left folded AQ when it was my BB only to see AQ flop and another fella bet into it. (he woulda knocked the fella out and more money to each of us!).
Cheers to Danny, i must get out more (it was my first visit to Walsall for a while) because it was great fun.
Dik, the prize pool was around £1900ish and about £1700ish left at the time, a valiant effort though!!
Tikay, you never gave your opinion??

No ifm, I never gave my answer, because I was off-line for 36 hours, & by the time I read the thread, the answer had been given. It was too easy THEN.......

It's hard to give an opinion when I know the answer, but to be honest, I'd have called you I think, not believing you had a hand. And been WRONG!

Lovely thread, a new slant on an old chestnut. Well done.