blonde poker forum

http://www.pokerhand.org/?4743350

would like to hear some views on this hand plz

call?

fold?

tyty

have to call

What stats/reads/dynamic toby?

against some people I find a fold here against others no chance.  if they're 3 betting the flop with draws this deep against you then I wouldn't fold.

There are no bluffs in his range really. all semi bluffs or hands that crush us. I doubt he 3 bet's the flop this deep with aces on this texture.

I aint folding here.

Tough spot but i think its pretty dependant on how you feel your image is at the table.

Having played with you a couple of times i expect you to be raising up all combo draws and a high amount of the time in position with  Ts Js type hands, so i think you have to call here for the amount of times you get shown  Ahrt Kh and  Th Jh  by a player seeing you raising a wide range.

Snap his arm off IMO.

Stop slow rolling

you have a set so gogogo

what frequency is he 3 betting the flop with a draw here compared to a set 200bb deep oop?

cos stoving i can only find us at 30% min. Also how wide is he opening utg is 85s in it/98o etc. with no reads i'd spite call turn. I cant fold with the board being this draw heavy.

I saw a couple of 5's in your hand then one on the flop.

Didn't need to see the rest of the history.

Call please.

+1

Is this player capable of playing a flush draw this aggressively? Does is utg range include hands like 74s or TQs??

Unless the answer was yes to both these questions I would have said fold here personally. The bet sizing of his flop lead, raise and turn shove tell me that he is the one with a made hand, very scared of the draw he perceives you to have.

Then I actually sat down and did the maths. I got a bit carried away with this and look forward to having my mistakes corrected....

When he shoves the A its unlikely he has TT-KK so whats his range?

88 & 99         -   6 combos (very likely to have raised utg and played the hand like this)
AhKh & JhTh  -  2 combos   (very likely to have raised utg and played the hand like this)

67s              -   4 combos
QhJh           -    1 combo
Ah8-6h        -    3 combos
Kh8h           -    1 combo
AhQ-Th       -     3 combos
AA              -    6 combos

67o              -   12 combos         (unlikely to have raised utg)
6h3h,6h4h,7h4h,Th7h,Jh7h,QhTh  -  6 combos (unlikely to have raised utg)

KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,A2-4h - 6 combos (unlikely to have played the hand like this)

T7, JT (one or no hearts) - 30 combos (unlikely to have played the hand like this).

OK so we have 8 combos as prime suspects, 18 combos as moderately likely culprits, and 54 unlikely explanations. Lets also make an allowance for wild bluffs of, say, another 12 combos. So thats 92 total combinations.

Weight the range by increasing the number of prime suspects and decreasing the unlikelies + wild bluffs. Lets say he holds the prime suspects three times more often than the moderately likely combinations, and lets also say that he holds the unlikelies and wild bluffs three times less often than the moderates. So multiplying the 8 x 3 gives 24 and dividing the 54 by 3 gives 18, and dividing the 12 by 3 gives 4. So now we have 24 + 18 + 18 + 4 = 64 total combinations.

Yes the 'three times more likely' bit has been plucked out the air but we can play around with that later to find our break even point. If the shove on the turn is a pot-sized bet we need 33.3% equity to call.

Finally the pokerstove bit

24/64 times he has (88,99,AhKh,JhTh) and on that turn we have 20.7%

18/64 times he has (67s,QhJh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Kh8h,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,AA) and we have 48%

18/64 times he has (67o,6h3h,6h4h,7h4h,Th7h,Jh7h,QhTh,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,JTo,JcTc,JsTs,JdTd,T7o,Tc7c,Ts7s,Td7d)
and we have 68%

4/64 time he has a random hand and we have 92.7%

So (24/64 x 20.7) + (18/64 x 48%) + (18/64 x 68%) + (4/64 x 92.7%)
=  7.76% + 13.5% + 19.13% + 5.79%
=  46.18%.

Looks like the set of fives is massive, but obviously its a matter of guesswork as to how you weight his range. Even if we assume that he is SEVEN times more likely to have the sets and the AhKh/JhTh, than his moderately likely hands, AND seven times less likely to have the unlikely hands, we STILL have almost 33%.

Change his range so he has a set or AhKh or JhTh 80% of the time and the equity of a set of fives drops to 29.4%.

This is only becomes a clear fold if this guy is basically a very straightforward or very tight player.

Obviously if you have good stats on his utg opening range you can make a much more accurate estimation.

Its a familliar concept against any kind of tricky/bluffy player - you have to call because there are many more ways for him to have a semi-bluff or bluff than there are ways for him to have a massive hand.




        

ty for the anaysis, its interesting i dont fold sets ever so for me to consider folding here is massive and i always wave onto the call rather than the folds in these situations. But this guy is a reg, he plays 600nl - 5000nl which i have seen him playing so he isnt a bad player by any means.

I can see why you time banked......

get laid plz

rotflmfao

Surely you're loving the board, especially the ace on the turn?  For the amount you have to call, and knowing there's no more to come you can't possibly fold this can you?

Snap....and then ^^this^^ immediately

Even I find a call here.

Would he play the same with  Ahrt Kh or similar?

Even you find a call? You can't lay down middle pair in Omaha!!!!

This!

call

a five and a five and another five is pretty hard to get

he's a stalker, should of seen him in dublin.....