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Title: Deal or no deal Post by: Christo! on October 01, 2009, 04:37:32 PM Just put this on, the girl is in a very strong situation, think she has all the top 5 intact and only one blue box left.
Might actually be interesting today lol Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Claw75 on October 01, 2009, 04:42:35 PM just tuned in - don't think i've ever seen a board that strong before!
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Christo! on October 01, 2009, 04:50:37 PM looks like I jinxed her lol
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: GreekStein on October 01, 2009, 04:53:18 PM Soon as you said girl I couldn't be bothered to switch one of the office TV's on. She'd only get offered 14k by the banker and insta-deal.
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Ironside on October 01, 2009, 04:55:49 PM what a burn out
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: cia260895 on October 01, 2009, 04:58:20 PM greedy bint i'd have taken 27k
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Cf on October 01, 2009, 05:38:00 PM £14,000 is the only result anyone should really get there. Or No Deal to that and get the £50,000. Any other deal is overly cautious.
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: bolt pp on October 01, 2009, 05:56:09 PM lol she was a melon,
was offered......26k, 32k, 36k, and left with 14k all because she let the audience gee her up into gambling when you cound see she didnt want to, if it wasnt bad enough that she took by far one of her lowest offers her box had 50k in it and she was going to gamble untill she let some pricks again in talk her out of it, made the wrong move at every go idiot Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: DaveShoelace on October 01, 2009, 07:06:56 PM As an aside, she would have made it into my 'telly birds you fancy but shouldnt' list
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: ripple11 on October 01, 2009, 08:11:07 PM lol she was a melon, was offered......26k, 32k, 36k, and left with 14k all because she let the audience gee her up into gambling when you cound see she didnt want to, if it wasnt bad enough that she took by far one of her lowest offers her box had 50k in it and she was going to gamble untill she let some pricks again in talk her out of it, made the wrong move at every go idiot With 5 big reds and one blue....great odds to just say "sod it I'll take my chance and open my box" unless I get a great offer on the way. Then she would have got 50K. Trouble was she was keen on Box 7....so would have been offered the swop ,taken it ......and got a tenner! Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: TightEnd on October 01, 2009, 08:17:57 PM thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box
Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: bolt pp on October 01, 2009, 08:21:08 PM thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box then take 36k then, how much more could she have won with how the boxes were situated, pure greed and she wanted to take it Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: TightEnd on October 01, 2009, 08:22:30 PM thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box then take 36k then, how much more could she have won with how the boxes were situated, pure greed and she wanted to take it i meant her final deal turning down 36k earlier with the board that strong I could understand, with the big few up top around, turning down 14k later was the right choice too Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: bolt pp on October 01, 2009, 08:25:31 PM thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box then take 36k then, how much more could she have won with how the boxes were situated, pure greed and she wanted to take it i meant her final deal turning down 36k earlier with the board that strong I could understand, with the big few up top around, turning down 14k later was the right choice too what was the board at the time, 100k up top with 4 boxes left, to get an increase she would have to have left 50k and 100k at the end, the 36k was a brilliant offer, it was an offer where she would moslty lose a big chunk of her offer rather than get a sizable increase, the 250k makes up so much of the equity its ridic, without that you should take 36k!!!! Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Ironside on October 01, 2009, 08:32:39 PM thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box then take 36k then, how much more could she have won with how the boxes were situated, pure greed and she wanted to take it i meant her final deal turning down 36k earlier with the board that strong I could understand, with the big few up top around, turning down 14k later was the right choice too what was the board at the time, 100k up top with 4 boxes left, to get an increase she would have to have left 50k and 100k at the end, the 36k was a brilliant offer, it was an offer where she would moslty lose a big chunk of her offer rather than get a sizable increase, the 250k makes up so much of the equity its ridic, without that you should take 36k!!!! 4 boxes i think she had 50k 75k and 100k with the £10 Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: bolt pp on October 01, 2009, 08:35:26 PM thought 14k was a horrible deal for any gambler, well under EV, but for normal people its too much money to risk losing with a chance of 10p in her box then take 36k then, how much more could she have won with how the boxes were situated, pure greed and she wanted to take it i meant her final deal turning down 36k earlier with the board that strong I could understand, with the big few up top around, turning down 14k later was the right choice too what was the board at the time, 100k up top with 4 boxes left, to get an increase she would have to have left 50k and 100k at the end, the 36k was a brilliant offer, it was an offer where she would moslty lose a big chunk of her offer rather than get a sizable increase, the 250k makes up so much of the equity its ridic, without that you should take 36k!!!! 4 boxes i think she had 50k 75k and 100k with the £10 even if she kept the 100k with £10 she wouldnt get an increase, if you say no to 36k there you HAVE to take out the £10 then even if you do depending on whats left how much of an increase % will you go with? i dont think its worth it. Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Cf on October 01, 2009, 09:42:20 PM It was
£10 £35,000 £50,000 £75,000 £100,000 Her offer was £32,000. There's a 60% chance of having 2 reds to finish = more than £32,000. £10 and £100,000 will prob be a stick, or slight drop. £10 and other red is obviously a drop, but one we can live with for the possibility of the red/red finish. But importantly, we'll always be getting a £10,000+ offer. Once you get to the end, yeah, £14,000 is a bit of an anti-climax. But now we're flipping between nothing and £50,000. Even tho it's clearly +EV to flip here you shouldn't be doing it unless you're sufficiently rich. Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: Claw75 on October 01, 2009, 09:53:07 PM It was £10 £35,000 £50,000 £75,000 £100,000 Her offer was £32,000. There's a 60% chance of having 2 reds to finish = more than £32,000. £10 and £100,000 will prob be a stick, or slight drop. £10 and other red is obviously a drop, but one we can live with for the possibility of the red/red finish. But importantly, we'll always be getting a £10,000+ offer. Once you get to the end, yeah, £14,000 is a bit of an anti-climax. But now we're flipping between nothing and £50,000. Even tho it's clearly +EV to flip here you shouldn't be doing it unless you're sufficiently rich. she then got offered 36k immediately after taking out the 35k box, then 27k after taking out the (I think) 75k box Title: Re: Deal or no deal Post by: bolt pp on October 01, 2009, 09:57:45 PM It was £10 £35,000 £50,000 £75,000 £100,000 Her offer was £32,000. There's a 60% chance of having 2 reds to finish = more than £32,000. £10 and £100,000 will prob be a stick, or slight drop. £10 and other red is obviously a drop, but one we can live with for the possibility of the red/red finish. But importantly, we'll always be getting a £10,000+ offer. Once you get to the end, yeah, £14,000 is a bit of an anti-climax. But now we're flipping between nothing and £50,000. Even tho it's clearly +EV to flip here you shouldn't be doing it unless you're sufficiently rich. she then got offered 36k immediately after taking out the 25kk box thats the one she should have 100% taken, my thinking is that if she leaves the £10 with any other red at the end then after having hugh offers the banker will force her to gamble with a small offer because he knows the big sums you just turned down are still in your head, with 36k locked up for the sake of getting 50 or 75k odd balanced against having to gamble and leaving with a tenner i think you have to take the 36k. |