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Title: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Jon MW on October 01, 2009, 10:08:47 PM Within sight of the bubble, but a deepstack game so in reality quite a long time to go.
lovehailey is a tight player who has got his chips by overbetting the nuts and getting called. skimmel hasn't played many hands, and hasn't had hands go to showdown. PokerStars Game #33516325893: Tournament #199550384, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/10/01 21:42:19 WET [2009/10/01 16:42:19 ET] Table '199550384 36' 9-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: skimmel (26979 in chips) Seat 2: RoyalOdoyle (35137 in chips) Seat 3: Jon MW (18435 in chips) Seat 4: willstarsz (23716 in chips) Seat 5: JBF76 (28279 in chips) Seat 6: mickisright (29638 in chips) Seat 7: TaintSniffer (20746 in chips) Seat 8: lovehailey (58704 in chips) Seat 9: el gringo 69 (9845 in chips) <<everyone posts antes>> *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Jon MW [Qc Qs] el gringo 69: folds skimmel: calls 400 RoyalOdoyle: raises 450 to 850 Jon MW: calls 850 willstarsz: folds JBF76: folds mickisright: folds TaintSniffer: folds lovehailey: calls 450 skimmel: calls 450 *** FLOP *** [7c Tc 7s] lovehailey: bets 1600 skimmel: calls 1600 RoyalOdoyle: folds Jon MW: calls 1600 *** TURN *** [7c Tc 7s] [Kc] lovehailey: checks skimmel: checks Jon MW: checks *** RIVER *** [7c Tc 7s Kc] [7h] lovehailey: bets 1200 skimmel: calls 1200 ... How much value can I get out of this? I think both players would have bet the turn if they had the king and I think lovehailey would have bet more on the river, and I think skimmel would have raised If I go all in I think they'll both fold unless they've got aking, quads or aces (although I think they would have bet out more if they had) So how much is a good raise? Or should it be a shove in case at least one of them does call? Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: BulldozerD on October 01, 2009, 10:29:12 PM initial reaction is 3bet preflop and just call the river, raising is quite thin 3 way like this.
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: gatso on October 01, 2009, 10:35:36 PM yeah, I'm thinking call the river
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: AlexMartin on October 02, 2009, 01:46:40 AM im thinking fold, raising isnt thin, its spew.
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: action man on October 02, 2009, 03:50:01 AM raising is a huge spew, but folding is burning money also. Just call plz
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: kinboshi on October 02, 2009, 04:15:43 AM Call on the river.
Why the flat-call pre-flop? Makes no sense to me. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Jon MW on October 02, 2009, 06:21:55 AM Call on the river. Why the flat-call pre-flop? Makes no sense to me. Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to, but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play. By the river, Skimmel is a bit more of a risk, but I think both players would have played the hands completely differently if they had hands which were beating me - in fact the hands I put them on were on a very narrow range judging by the hands they'd played before, and were pretty much what they had. Thanks for the vote of confidence in my people reading and hand reading skillz :)up Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: outragous76 on October 02, 2009, 08:26:00 AM Jon. I dont think people are being critical here. You seem to be missing a fundamental point. You a very unlikely to get called by worse. Therefore there is no value in your raise. If you still think queens full is good, just call.
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: GreekStein on October 02, 2009, 10:07:56 AM im thinking CALL, raising isnt thin, its spew. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: EvilPie on October 02, 2009, 11:44:36 AM The only hands I'm raising here are 7x, possibly KK because I don't think the 7's out there, possibly 1010 because Kx might call and complete air if I'm feeling a bit frisky.
QQ is 100% call every time. There is no value raising at all. Kx calls you 10x probably folds or at least should fold and 7x obviously reraises. What do you do if you raise and one of your oppo's shoves? You think you're winning now with your VB but would you still think so then or would you pass? Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Royal Flush on October 02, 2009, 11:52:48 AM Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to, but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play. Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard! Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Jon MW on October 02, 2009, 12:10:05 PM Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to, but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play. Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard! Yes, I know I can be overly risk averse at times and sometimes it's cost me a final table finish. AA and KK are no problem, but when it gets to holding just a pair of Q's and below it starts to play on my mind how much I can lose rather than the probability of how much I can win. I need to work on this. Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds? Does it make a difference that every player who is agressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those). Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Jon MW on October 02, 2009, 12:24:57 PM ... Kx calls you 10x probably folds or at least should fold and 7x obviously reraises. ... Both of these players bet more pre with AA and KK, both of them bet on the turn with either a King or a flush (in hindsight I realise that medium connectors could have made a low flush and they'd have still checked but hey ho) - and a handful of 7's reraise on the river, but I think they're unlikely apart from (in hindsight again) 67, 78 and A7. It leaves a slow played Tens (I didn't really think of this at the time though) which is a risk and Jacks and 10x which call a raise if it's small enough - hence the question of how small? In a way everyone saying a raise is a spew has at least reassured me that I didn't miss out on any value :D ... What do you do if you raise and one of your oppo's shoves? You think you're winning now with your VB but would you still think so then or would you pass? I realise I've made a horrible, horrible mistake and they deserve my chips - and fold Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: MANTIS01 on October 02, 2009, 12:25:47 PM Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to, but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play. Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard! Yes, I know I can be overly risk averse at times and sometimes it's cost me a final table finish. AA and KK are no problem, but when it gets to holding just a pair of Q's and below it starts to play on my mind how much I can lose rather than the probability of how much I can win. I need to work on this. Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds? Does it make a difference that every player who is aggressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those). I got one bit of good advice from an Erick Lingdren book I read once. "Look at all hands as an opportunity to win rather than a reason to lose". That's it. From a whole book. But it's really good advice to approach tournaments with. If you're not looking to maximise the potential of each hand you play you can only win tournaments by getting lucky. You ask whether it makes a difference that every player who is aggressive preflop folds post flop if they miss. Sure it makes a difference. Cos when you pick up queens you want to get your monies into the middle vs worse hands before they have a chance to miss. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: GreekStein on October 02, 2009, 12:35:10 PM Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to, but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play. Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard! Yes, I know I can be overly risk averse at times and sometimes it's cost me a final table finish. AA and KK are no problem, but when it gets to holding just a pair of Q's and below it starts to play on my mind how much I can lose rather than the probability of how much I can win. I need to work on this. Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds? Does it make a difference that every player who is aggressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those). I got one bit of good advice from an Erick Lingdren book I read once. "Look at all hands as an opportunity to win rather than a reason to lose". That's it. From a whole book. But it's really good advice to approach tournaments with. If you're not looking to maximise the potential of each hand you play you can only win tournaments by getting lucky. You ask whether it makes a difference that every player who is aggressive preflop folds post flop if they miss. Sure it makes a difference. Cos when you pick up queens you want to get your monies into the middle vs worse hands before they have a chance to miss. Was Lindgren trying to disprove this theory at this years WSOP? Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: 810ofclubs on October 02, 2009, 12:44:34 PM this a joke thread?
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: titaniumbean on October 02, 2009, 12:46:13 PM Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Jon MW on October 02, 2009, 12:49:56 PM this a joke thread? ;sleep; Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: GreekStein on October 02, 2009, 12:52:27 PM General discussion about betting/value raising v thin is good.
Just happens this is a spot in which we shouldn't raise. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: KarmaDope on October 02, 2009, 12:58:13 PM General discussion about betting/value raising v thin is good. Just happens this is a spot we shouldn't be in because we've well and truly messed up the hand by playing QQ like 66. FYP. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: GreekStein on October 02, 2009, 12:59:57 PM General discussion about betting/value raising v thin is good. Just happens this is a spot we shouldn't be in because we've well and truly messed up the hand by playing QQ like 66. FYP. I'm trying to help change the tone of PHA. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: KarmaDope on October 02, 2009, 01:01:01 PM General discussion about betting/value raising v thin is good. Just happens this is a spot we shouldn't be in because we've well and truly messed up the hand by playing QQ like 66. FYP. I'm trying to help change the tone of PHA. I agree, but in effect this is what MW has done. He's played a super-strength hand like he would play a small-medium pair OOP. Raise pre, raise the flop and look to get it all in on the turn. Even if villain shows up with something like Kx we have draws to the flush and if he shows up with Acxc then we have draws to the house. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: EvilPie on October 02, 2009, 02:05:53 PM I've just gone through the HH again Jon. You've played the hand passively every street by flatting which is fine if that's how you want to play this hand. I don't like it but if you don't want to play big pots then that's up to you if you're more comfortable playing small ball.
The thing I don't understand is why do you suddenly want to start getting aggressive when you've finally achieved what looked to be your aim of getting to a cheap showdown? Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Jon MW on October 02, 2009, 02:12:02 PM I've just gone through the HH again Jon. You've played the hand passively every street by flatting which is fine if that's how you want to play this hand. I don't like it but if you don't want to play big pots then that's up to you if you're more comfortable playing small ball. The thing I don't understand is why do you suddenly want to start getting aggressive when you've finally achieved what looked to be your aim of getting to a cheap showdown? Because at the showdown I've ruled out from their hand ranges every hand that beats me (although in hindsight I missed a couple that did) The only way I'm likely to be wrong is if they have a monster hand which they'll shove on me with - but I think that's only a very small likelihood. And if they have the narrow range of hands I put them on, there are a few which they'll call my raise with. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: MANTIS01 on October 02, 2009, 02:45:51 PM I've just gone through the HH again Jon. You've played the hand passively every street by flatting which is fine if that's how you want to play this hand. I don't like it but if you don't want to play big pots then that's up to you if you're more comfortable playing small ball. The thing I don't understand is why do you suddenly want to start getting aggressive when you've finally achieved what looked to be your aim of getting to a cheap showdown? I think it's ok to suddenly get busy and look for value with a hand you've previously underrepped if you think your hand is good. Or else why would you underrep a hand? I agree in this example thou because I don't think hero is ever actually setting any kind of trap. The problem for Jon is he's looking for value on the river of this valueless board, when according to the dynamics of the table the value in his hand was pre-flop. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: pleno1 on October 03, 2009, 05:36:08 AM you have the third best hand in holdem, dont be scared, raise baby.
Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Royal Flush on October 03, 2009, 01:28:21 PM Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds? Does it make a difference that every player who is agressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those). I would get a billion BB's in pre if the guy has AT in his range. Yes deffo all the more reason to try and get it in pre, also i would be playing a lot more trash hands and winning post with them. Title: Re: How much do you raise on the river? Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on October 03, 2009, 01:41:26 PM You can win most pots on flop if they miss - ok, well peel wide then and be prepared to shell for the pot if its that easy.
3bet pre here pls - I don't hate calling but in this spot I do 3bet myself. |