blonde poker forum

LIVE MTT, Starting stack 10,000. Early stages Blinds 25-50

I have near doubled up to 19,000 or so.

UTG limper, call, me on the button raise to 250 with  Ts Th

Called by BB and both original limpers

Flop comes

 Tc Kh  Ad

First to act bets 400, UTG limper flat calls, fold, I raise to 1100

BB folds, UTG tanks for a fair while, there's a bit of chat and eventually he raises to 5000 (with around 3K back)

Your move ?

jam and fill up and the river

We raised to get the money in now so do so surely?

Don't 3-bet without a plan.

and this bit of advice relates to this hand how?

I'm gonna put my chips over the line here

don't like the flop raise size, needs to be more

 who is the limper?

flop raise looks underdone to me, but got the desired result surely. Stick it in

I don't think you really need to raise the flop at all. There's not many scare cards that can come on the turn so why not keep both villains in this and play the hand. When you raise there's not a lot of worse hands that tag along imo and anyway you wont lose your business from 2 pair hands on the turn. I think you can raise a little more pre though. As played your oppo has less than half your stack and you have 3 tens.

what was the chat?   

Get it in, order another red wine.

Richie, UTG was Alan Gray

I did raise thinking I could induce some action and to papertits point, I did raise with a plan. However, a very long tank from Alan and then re-raise made me stop and think about my initial ideas. Sometimes it's good to re-plan when circumstances veer a tad from one of the milestone outcomes you expected

Appreciate the comments about my raise on the flop, all brain food imo

I mentioned he was a nice guy, I loved him like a brother, that it was early stage, and this one time I would show him my hand when he passed. There was various other things mentioned. IIRC Alan didn't say anything but looked like he was in a great deal of pain the whole time

trick question?

Not at all, genuine interest in learning imo, not sure of my play in the hand at all

perfect/standard. maybe call flop as your range looks superstrong if you raise and the board is rainbow but they will peel all sorts of AX/KX combos 1 street. Admittedly, his hand looks like the nuts, but combine the times hes overplaying AK and A10 with the fact your house redraw is almost certainly live with the most important part that its YOU playng ALAN GRAY and if he has QJ just chalk it up to variance.

1400 on the flop and get it all in when he makes it 5k.

As played get em in.

However a more standard line with tt when this deep would be to flat pre and set mine. Your hand is very vulnerable when you get 3 callers which is fairly standard.

Get em all-in quick n have a little chuckle when you see how badly he plays A-10, imo only

Did you raise small on flop coz you where worried about JQ? Or did you raise small to keep the fish on the line?

I'm never folding on the flop

Still working on my bet sizing, raised enough to fold out complete donk lead bets with bare J or Q or worse perhaps.

Bet small enough to keep in A x, K x type hands

Might be a bit of hindsight there  (however, I know when I raised I never considered I was behind), Later in the hand I start worrying about JQ

I don't mind raising the flop here without a plan to a 3b tbh, obv we hope to get called and then get a 2500 bet called somewhere down the line.

When we get 3b its obv either wiiiii hand in air time or norrrrr hero fold time, it would all depend on live reads etc.

Against any decent/sophisticated/positionally aware player, he has a very narrow range given this action. If he's fishy then he could be playing AT/KT/AA/KK/AK like this.

So is this guy decent or fishy? Either way you have much more equity with your set than you need to get it all in. You can only fold here if he is actually a piece of granite dug from a quarry and placed on a chair at the poker table.
 
If he's decent, then he has JQ or some ballsy bluff or semi bluff with a pair-plus-gutshot-plus-backdoor-flushdraw type hand.

If we treat his 5k raise as an 8k shove, and you have him covered, then the price is 6900 to win (8000+1100+400+1025=) 10575. Chips-for-chips, you need 6900/(10575+6900) = 39.5%.

However this is a tournament, not cash. You are risking a very good position in the tournament to try and win a better position. You have more to lose than you stand to gain. Therefore you should be looking for a bit more than 39.5% in this spot. IMO you need something like 42-43%.

So how much equity do you have against a decent player? Well, there are 16 ways of dealing JQ, and its very likely he would have played it this way. Then we have AQ and AJ (24). Less likely are KQ and KJ (24). Very unlikely are QT, JT( 8 ). Add another 8 combos for the sake of random bluffs and you have a total of 80 possible combinations.

Pokerstove says you have 34.9% against JQ, 84.1% against AQ/AJ, 84.1% against KQ/KJ, 85.1% against QT/JT and 92.4% against a random hand.

Before you weight this range towards JQ, you have an average equity of 75.2% !  He has to be playing JQ here almost all the time before you can think about folding. If you assume he has JQ here nine times more often than AQ/AJ, and the less likely hands nine times less often, your equity is a healthy 43.1%.

What if he's a fish? Then he could have slow played AA,KK (6), or AK (9), or be ready to go broke on AT,KT (6). Although the oversets crush us, we crush the two-pairs, and there are more two-pair combos, so our equity actually improves when we add these into the mix.

What sort of good player is going to bluff in this spot? How can you give 8 combo's of air?

I would put a good players range here as AA/QJ

Well I like to add some random combos to his range to allow for bluffs - do you think that around 10% is too much?

FWIW, he did have JQ, I set him all in after a 20 second or so re-think, I binked.

Reason for the post was to find out out about my raise on the flop and then if anyone was ever folding to his raise to 5k. Genuine questions imo

Appreciate the responses chaps

If i'm raising i'm not folding.I'm not always raising though.

Maybe 1%

Come back to this board when you don't bink.  Until then, it doesn't matter what you do.