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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: TightEnd on October 16, 2009, 10:32:28 AM



Title: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: TightEnd on October 16, 2009, 10:32:28 AM
Unknown player

Small Stars MTT, first level

Having flopped it all I am thinking "hope he has got a Jack"

On the turn I am thinking "Bingo he has a Jack"

On the river I am thinking "Not AJ surely, not pocket fives, Quads? you must be joking!"

What else would he be putting me all in with?


PokerStars Game #34074315577: Tournament #203040584, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/10/15 15:33:17 ET
Table '203040584 80' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Kikiriki77 (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: BRANDBIL (3250 in chips)
Seat 3: Prewie (3090 in chips)
Seat 4: hoopking11 (3720 in chips)
Seat 5: madrik (2920 in chips)
Seat 6: Silent57 (2875 in chips)
Seat 7: el96650 (2625 in chips)
Seat 8: CaptSparrow1 (2545 in chips)
CaptSparrow1: posts small blind 15
Kikiriki77: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Prewie [2h 2s]
BRANDBIL: folds
Prewie: calls 30
hoopking11: calls 30
madrik: folds
Silent57: folds
el96650: folds
CaptSparrow1: calls 15
Kikiriki77: checks
*** FLOP *** [Jh 2c Js]
CaptSparrow1: checks
Kikiriki77: checks
Prewie: bets 120
hoopking11: calls 120
CaptSparrow1: folds
Kikiriki77: folds
*** TURN *** [Jh 2c Js] [5s]
Prewie: bets 180
hoopking11: calls 180
*** RIVER *** [Jh 2c Js 5s] [Ad]
Prewie: bets 510
hoopking11: raises 2100 to 2610





Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: BulldozerD on October 16, 2009, 10:35:39 AM
he can still have other Jx hands like TJ, QJ etc and play like this - if he has AJ/AA then just a cooler and load up another, well played now just finish the job and call


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: gatso on October 16, 2009, 11:09:55 AM
don't open limp, don't bet random amounts on each street, as played snap and load up another tourney as he sticks j5 in your eye


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: MANTIS01 on October 16, 2009, 11:13:25 AM
Yes, you can possibly fold here. You could also turn off your laptop and watch Emmerdale for the rest of the evening. A full house beats 3 jacks right?


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Cf on October 16, 2009, 11:14:03 AM
Yeah, your bet sizing does look rather inconsistent. Pot on flop, half pot on turn, and ~3/4 pot on river.

You have to get it in on this river though. There are Jx hands you can beat.

I don't mind the limp pre in a low stakes game.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: MANTIS01 on October 16, 2009, 11:22:36 AM
I think limping is the best play. It sets up this very situation.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: TightEnd on October 16, 2009, 11:23:59 AM
good comments


the bet sizing wasn't random btw, it may be incorrect/mistaken but it wasn't random.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Cf on October 16, 2009, 11:42:18 AM
good comments


the bet sizing wasn't random btw, it may be incorrect/mistaken but it wasn't random.

You mean you don't have a button on your stars client that says "bet random amount"? That sucks :(


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: TightEnd on October 16, 2009, 11:45:58 AM
don't open limp, don't bet random amounts on each street, as played snap and load up another tourney as he sticks j5 in your eye


you don't open limp 22 at 10-20 in EP in a $10 game?

you fold? raise?

no value at all in set mining?


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Cf on October 16, 2009, 12:02:02 PM
don't open limp, don't bet random amounts on each street, as played snap and load up another tourney as he sticks j5 in your eye


you don't open limp 22 at 10-20 in EP in a $10 game?

you fold? raise?

no value at all in set mining?

I think the argument is your hand is a bit face up when you limp/call a raise to set mine, and are suddenly interested in a raggy flop. I don't think people at these stakes generally notice though.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: gatso on October 16, 2009, 12:05:23 PM
don't open limp, don't bet random amounts on each street, as played snap and load up another tourney as he sticks j5 in your eye


you don't open limp 22 at 10-20 in EP in a $10 game?

you fold? raise?

no value at all in set mining?

personally I raise, I'd rather watch emmerdale with mantis for the first 2 levels then late reg than dick around open limping for 30, but if you're going to limp you should never, ever be considering the fold having flopped the world


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Ironside on October 16, 2009, 01:16:14 PM
tighty if you fold here we are going to transfer you to a knitting forum


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: BulldozerD on October 16, 2009, 02:03:57 PM
i personally never open limp but in a $10 comp no-one will know any different, so difference is pretty marginal.

i also agree your sizing is a bit weird throughout the hand but at least you bet it when some other people would check thinking they are clever.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Cf on October 16, 2009, 02:06:16 PM
I love people who slow play sets against me then feel really clever that they got a call off me on the river, when they could have my entire stack earlier in the hand if they wanted.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: titaniumbean on October 16, 2009, 02:08:36 PM
Yes, you can possibly fold here. You could also turn off your laptop and watch Emmerdale for the rest of the evening. A full house beats 3 jacks right?

Mantis you are incredible, spot on every time rotflmfao


 ;tightend; ;tightend; ;tightend;



Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: BulldozerD on October 16, 2009, 02:27:42 PM
I love people who slow play sets against me then feel really clever that they got a call off me on the river, when they could have my entire stack earlier in the hand if they wanted.

in fairness, it takes at least two hands with you to realise you are a pay-off monkey, so give them chance


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: TightEnd on October 16, 2009, 02:34:28 PM
Of course I called


Really I am asking the wrong question in the thread title, more interested in the hand overall and whether I am beat often enough on the river to countenance anything other than getting the lot in


Bet Sizing, I am prepared to be educated on my faults here/please suggest better alternatives

On the flop I am up against three opponents, I put a pot sized bet in to make it look like I am  trying to nick the pot on a dryish board...ie it gets value out of any Jack or Pocket pairs calling/raising...if no one has a Jack or a pair I'm not getting paid anyway. Like to bet my hands rather than dick around trap checking as I once did and then kicking myself afterwards

Turn I have a customer, smaller bet relative to the pot to build it a bit further but not scare him off

River he definitely has a Jack in my mind, bet 3/4 of the pot as a value bet. Get raised, should be happy days, job achieved.


Not too unhappy if someone thinks this is "weird", better than predictable I suppose


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Longy on October 16, 2009, 03:02:54 PM
Nothing wrong with open limping here 100bb's deep against what is probably weak competition.

The only bit I don't like is the turn bet, I would bet at least 3/4 pot here. Build the pot with the effective nuts imo.



Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: MANTIS01 on October 16, 2009, 03:07:47 PM
The point in this hand is you put in a pot-sized bet to make it look like you're nicking the pot....so your strategy right from the outset is to look weak. Hence, having any faith in your own strat is the reason you can never contemplate folding. You've trapped the guy with your play. Why level yourself that the trap hasn't worked? I think betting out strong was pretty good and we know this guy has a Jack now. That said your bet-sizing is pretty much immaterial from here on in because trapped villain is always jamming now whether he pairs his second card or not.


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: dino1980 on October 16, 2009, 04:55:37 PM


Bet Sizing, I am prepared to be educated on my faults here/please suggest better alternatives




Rich below is just one alternative highlighting what open raising rather than limping may have achieved and yes whilst this might be a bit contrived it's wider point I guess is about manipulating the pot to give yourself a nice easy river shove.

PokerStars Game #34074315577: Tournament #203040584, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/10/15 15:33:17 ET
Table '203040584 80' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Kikiriki77 (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: BRANDBIL (3250 in chips)
Seat 3: Prewie (3090 in chips)
Seat 4: hoopking11 (3720 in chips)
Seat 5: madrik (2920 in chips)
Seat 6: Silent57 (2875 in chips)
Seat 7: el96650 (2625 in chips)
Seat 8: CaptSparrow1 (2545 in chips)
CaptSparrow1: posts small blind 15
Kikiriki77: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Prewie [two hearts two spades]
BRANDBIL: folds
Prewie: raises to 90
hoopking11: calls 90
madrik: folds
Silent57: folds
el96650: folds
CaptSparrow1: calls 75
Kikiriki77: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [ Jh  2c Js] (pot 360)
CaptSparrow1: checks
Kikiriki77: checks
Prewie: bets 300
hoopking11: calls 300

CaptSparrow1: folds
Kikiriki77: folds
*** TURN *** [ Jh  2c Js ] [ 5s] (pot 960)
Prewie: bets 660
hoopking11: calls 660
*** RIVER *** [  Jh  2c Js  5s ] [Ad] (pot 2280)
Prewie: bets 2040 and is all-in
hoopking11: calls 2040


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Rupert on October 16, 2009, 04:56:49 PM
limping is fine/incredibly standard with all these awful players.  raising is actually pretty bad imo building a pot where cbets won't get thru very often since they all calling stations.

bet more on the turn and snap off his raise on river, hes pretty likely to have raised AJ pre, only rly worried about 55 but he can easily have bare jack


Title: Re: Can I possibly fold here?
Post by: Rupert on October 16, 2009, 04:59:37 PM
think of what he is calling you with on the flop, lots of PPs and jacks, maybe sometimes A high.  the turn doesn't change anything, so while you could check to try and get his complete floats, PPs that you might fold out to put more money in, you are going to win far more by just betting big and trying to stack a jack or pair.  scaring him off is not really a concern since so many hands that call flop call the turn even if you bet big