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Next week's X factor has a cracking 8/11 shot with Rachel to be in the bottom 2 again.

She has been there every week so far and nothing looks to really change that.  She may not get eliminated by the judges but the bottom two looks to be a 3 horse race and the other two have much better cases for getting out the bottom two than she does.

John and Edward are annoying as they come and lets be honest cant sing at all but they are getting a few votes.  Looking back through X Factor history the annoying acts have done ok as people start to jump on the band wagon of liking them beore they eventually get eliminated.  Same Difference did well last year and Chico was odds on every week to be eliminated but made it to week 6 or so.  If they survive the first week then it only takes a bit or press behind them and people love to spite Simon and keep them in.  They will also get the Irish vote - ive just got back from Ireland and they are actually liked over there.

Miss Frank arent that great but people like to fact they were a group made on the show.  THe judges are really pushing for them to do well as they dont want a judge to be elimiated in the first few weeks which could easily happen with Louis.  They will be given a favourable draw this week and this week should really help with their style of song choices.

The last real plus side of this bet is there seems to be a real disadvantage for black women in reality shows.  Looking back through all the reality shows, X Factor, Big Brother, Fame Academy etc I cant remember a Black women doing well when really they have been some stunning talent out there.  I remember someone writing a great piece about this on betfair a few years back and telling us all to back an elimination that week at 40/1 which duely happened.

Anyone I have literally smashed into the 8/11 :)

A few members of the shrewdies are already on this, led by the Punting Enigma that is Ben "RookieITB" Turnstill. Seems a cracking price. Surely this week won't suit her with it being Big Band week?

Just hope she doesnt get the sympathy vote from the public for being in the bottom two for the first 2 weeks running. She shouldnt do.

first john and edward can have all the votes they want from the ROI becuase they cant vote this year
2nd this weeks theme should suit racheal to a tee and she shouldbe able to pick up enough votes to see her through
i would be tempted to lay this bet but decided i aint betting on the market this year

Really???  Live n learn!!

Leona Lewis, Alexandra Burke?

Brian won Big Brother in 07.

Yes, so he did.

(http://didierdrogba.soccerstar.info/images%5Cplayers%5Cdidier-drogba%5Cdidier-drogba-028.jpg)

??? What has Phil Ivey got to do with anything in this context.

I said Women, not girls

Always dodgy these things, owt can happen on the night. Hidden agenda's by judges can swing votes, someone can bomb bad etc..backing odds on for the x factor is not great IMO, and for that reason i am out.

Dear Louis,

Just a little note to remind you i am not fcuking about, for every week the twins remain in Xfactor, another member of boyzone gets it.

lots of love

god

june blatch, rooks liked this price last night and took a lot of the 1.72 on betfair. I personally think that if she is in the bottom 2 the judges will vote her out, as shes been given chances already and obv the public still arent voting for her. Id be on this also if HSBC didnt shut my bank account for betting. (no joke) 

I think im gonna wait for the performances tho, price wont change that much and there will be a lot more liquidity in the market come saturday night.

Neteller ftw.

joke wasn't that funny when I first heard it, now it just plain doesn't work as there have been 2 eliminations since gately died and the rest are all still alive

Phew.

lump on @ 20/1 for the twins to represent ireland at eurovision 2010 imo

this

these markets are such a dodge

Saw this bet last night and acted accordingly, pretty mad price imo.

Lloyd is terrible

I got on at 1.72 the other day, and have just been told that its now somewhere around 1.78... Considering getting reinvolved in this - have just heard the song she is going to be singing is Ike & Tina Turner - Proud Mary. Seems an easy song to sing for her, and this could well be her best performance yet, but I really don't think she has the fans to keep her out of the bottom two?

The amount of support the judges are pumping behind her tonight, you are all fucked for this bet!

To be in the bottom 2, she just went from 1.5 to 2.0

Unlucky guys

Yup not looking good.

yeah but shes so fucking annoying

lol @ "ul guys"

do you honestly think she will still be in the bottom 2 after that?

first time she's been any good. gg everyone

i think she still will be.

voters usually only have one vote on their favourite, seriously whose fav is racheal?

she has no market or supporters.

LOL, Dave wins me my bet again.

She looked great - her dancing was better than previous weeks, but thats as far as it went.

She sung the song ok, but her voice definitely isn't the best. And thankfully for me, she had obviously been told to get a personality which she took far too far and just tried to be Stacey. Thanks Rachel.

Que post from Bolt saying:

lol @ "gg everyone"

Price do you want to lay me?

My mum has just text me saying she has voted 10 times for rachel so far, she is going to vote 30 time for her tonight!

[X] More money that she knows what to do with

I wondered where you get it from..

Baw bag Jamie should be in the bottom 2 after that performance!

Pure shite!

And it wasn't even a bloody big band song FFS ya cheating bastard

What, more money than i know what to do with?

True!

IMO the judges are setting up John and Deadturd to be booted off this week.
All the other potential relgation fodder has been given a positive report.
I expect the useless twins to be stuck in to by all bar Louis, who'll prob just say it was fun and that they're great entertainers.
I haven't wanted to back them to go before this week but am happy to back at 3.1.

yeah because she's irritating and people dont like her

well simon has just called them the Horror twins on the live show, so lump on them now!!!!

LOL @ this..

lol, people like to spite vote vs simon for a while.  Twins not in bottom 2 imo

Lloyd and twins in bottom two tonight

Scottish Dave's Stamp of Approval

Much as I don't want to agree with anyone that can even sit through Transformers, let alone put I and II in his top three movies ever, I agree sir.

what price neither of those 2 are in bottom 2?

come on chompy or dave, lay me a bet

Im not interested in a bet on this

+1 please.

I am not actually a massive xfactor fan but normally make a packet out of the show and therefore bet it every week while trading a few longterm positions.

Therefore apologies in advance for anorak sounding post.

Tbh i didn't agree with this thread at the start for one simple reason, I felt the value was in backing rachel purely to go outright. Bar the twins i thought she'd be voted off against anyone else likely to be in the bottom 2. Thus, i backed her to go at 2.37, and did my usual bet of laying the twins for the bottom two at around 2-1. I also took a speculative punt that the talented, cute, yet personality free and somewhat dull lucie, would be in the bottom 2@7-1 and would also be voted off at 40s. My opinion of the bottom 3 this week in the voting before the show was:

1-Rachel
2-Lucie
3-Miss Frank


Now after that show i've had to reevaluate my market positions. Rachel imo was no better than average. She's obviously only getting a few votes if any, and the judges tried to big her up, saying she was great when she wasn't, and giving her a make over-which okay made her look better than b4, if less edgy. I guess they want her to pay her way-with the votes, but i can't see it happening.

Now at 5-2 to go im considering going back in as im convinced she'll be in the bottom 2 again. The one problem i have is that now there could be one or 2 acts that might actually get booted up against her after tonights show. One act who i didn't forsee as a potential bottom 2er is now a real possibilty and another looks a little fragile. So perhaps the 1.89 on her to be btm 2 currently available is the better bet, it's a tough one. My opinion of the bottom 4 would now be:

1-Rachel
2-Miss frank
3-Jamie
4-Lucie/Lloyd

It's clear jamie isn't universally liked by the judges, a shame as i think the guy is much more talented than rachel. But singing the wrong type of song and the negative(ish) comments could see him really struggle with votes, i made him value at 40s to go afer the show and piled in, he's now 20s and should be about 14s i'd say.

Another act who seemed to really struggle was lloyd. The song didn't do wonders for him and simon's comments were scathing. However, i really cannot see this kid in the bottom 2 as i believe he'll grab the girlie vote if joseph doesnt hog it all. The problem is as soon as he fails with the public id be pretty certain the panel (simon) would just ditch him immediately as although he can't really sing they think he's marketable, if he gets no votes they'll just boot him off.

As for lucie i now can't see her being ko'd after that quality yet boring peformance tonight, but it's still  possible she could be in the bottom2 as im not sure what demographic will vote for her.

Misss frank are distinctly average and could drop into the bottom 2, where they'd struggle against most acts bar the twins and rachel, i've had a small saver on them to go@9-1 incase they found themselves up a heavyweight act like jamie or lucie.

Olly looks a solid choice to stay in 4 a while as does the likeable, jadesque stacey. Danyl is the class of the feild and i've still not traded out of my initial bet at 7-1 when the series started. Once he goes 2-1 i may green up a bit. Joseph sings well imo and is the real danger to danyl walking away with this comp.

But the real stars of the show are those twins, ppl watch to see what they'll do, it's saturday night entertainment at it's best. I keep laying them to be in the bottom2 each week-probably will do till week 5  or 6. I'd bet they are not even in the bottom 5.
Ppl seem to think this show is just about singing, that's why it's so easy to make money on these markets. Eventually the twins will become tiresome, but they might even make the last 3 like that dire same difference act a couple of years ago, that's why 66-1 was a nice price on them at the start of the show, each way of course.

Good luck all.

brilliant post. I agree with everything you say, its all about what market of voters each act has, racheal has no market at all.

i agree with racheal and miss frank for the bottom 2.  The judges will get rid of racheal if shes in the bottom 2, they have to, 2 previous black female winners in last 2 years and the fact shes been in the bottom 2 the last 2 weeks, they will have to give the other act shes in with another chance as they gave racheal chances and still no votes.

Its quite clear that danyl is simons first string act. (he stands up to appluad him and gives him the best song every week) tonight was prime example, best big band song by a mile,
although going on popular opinion with all the people i speak to, olly is a lot of peoples favourite, he is very cool despite being really humble with a great adaptable voice.

will be looking at getting 6 on racheal and miss frank coupled for bottom 2 and laying the world on lloyd and J&E for the bottom two. GL all

Odds currently at 4:44am over at Betfair:

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v215/stereoman/xfactor-week3elimination-a.jpg)

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v215/stereoman/xfactor-week3elimination-b.jpg)

not sure where the spite voting against simon comes from

he was openly hostile about same difference but then signed them to his label

True but they haven't done much apart form holiday camps since then.

I think Simon Cowell gave them ONE chance at a single back in November last year and the public didn't latch onto it and much like other acts who haven't had immediate success, Simon Cowell left them floundering.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same_Difference

i read they were working on an album in the studio just now and touring with leon

Leon was a joke winner. Spotted his album for 99p in Head in town the other day.

Probably due to the fact he was on the pitch at half time at Ibrox just after he won the show

Was Rachel in the bottom 2?

no