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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: poonjoe on October 21, 2009, 05:32:35 PM



Title: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: poonjoe on October 21, 2009, 05:32:35 PM
Typical .50/1 Omaha game on Stars - lots of multiway flops and re-raising preflop very often means Aces.

POKERSTARS GAME #33165326185:  OMAHA POT LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00 USD) - 2009/09/23 0:39:57 WET [2009/09/22 19:39:57 ET]
Table 'Sponde' 6-max Seat #4 is the button

Seat 1: ominoesius ($20 in chips)
Seat 2: Kutila ($115.75 in chips)
Seat 3: evallis ($54.80 in chips)
Seat 4: poonjoe ($82.40 in chips)
Seat 5: corto12 ($328.75 in chips)
Seat 6: swooshdog4 ($113.70 in chips)
corto12: posts small blind $0.50
swooshdog4: posts big blind $1

Dealt to poonjoe 3s 4d 8s 7d

ominoesius: folds
Kutila: raises $2.50 to $3.50
evallis: calls $3.50

poonjoe: calls $3.50

corto12: calls $3
swooshdog4: raises $17.50 to $21
Kutila: calls $17.50
evallis: folds

poonjoe: calls $17.50

corto12: folds

*** FLOP *** 7c 4h 3h

swooshdog4: bets $67
Kutila: raises $27.75 to $94.75 and is all-in

poonjoe: would like to hear yr thoughts on pre-flop and postflop. I've called a good portion of my stack off preflop to try and flop two pair or better, or a combination draw, to stack the three-bettor swooshdog. I expect him to stack off on the vast majority of flops with what I can only presume to be Aces.

So the flop comes, swooshdog makes the expected shove and I'm ready to get it in... but wait! Here comes Kutila putting his stack in before me!

My pot odds just got better but how good is my two pair?


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: GreekStein on October 21, 2009, 05:36:53 PM
Pass pre, get it in now.


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: Laxie on October 21, 2009, 06:03:54 PM
I'd have passed pre, but I play miles too tight anyway.

My question is, why is this such a great hand once the flop hits? 

If you've called pre with 34 and 78, is there no chance someone else called with the likes of 56?

Also, you've only got 2 pair.  I'd be worried about flush draws binking with 2 cards to come.  Also wee sets (most likely from Kutila) that we haven't spotted til we're broke from being so excited about the 2 pair.

Am I way off base? 


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: poonjoe on October 21, 2009, 06:59:19 PM
Off course yr not way off base Laxie.

Obviously you have to think that Kutila has me beat. ...and it gets worse. If he does have the 56, he will often have connecting cards to go with it, like 5678 or 4567, which seriously harm my chances of filling up. If he has top set I am dead, If he has second or third set I am nearly dead.

Its difficult for my two-pair to improve, I don't even have a backdoor flush draw.

Kutila was the original raiser, and flatted the three-bet with three players behind. I use Poker Tracker Omaha but do not have a large enough sample to make assumptions about his range. Really the best I can hope for here is that he has the bare nut flush draw, or something like KKxx with a flush draw, maybe 789T with a flush draw...

Furthermore, there is the shover who we assume has aces. He could easily have the nut flush draw, or could even have us crushed with a set or a straight if he didn't 3-bet with aces.

That said, look at the pot-odds. Both players have us covered, so after we've put in the $21 preflop we have $61.40 behind. The rake has already been taken out when Swoosh bets pot $67. We have to call $61.40 to win ($67+$61.40+61.40=) $189.80, so we're getting better than 3-1 and we're looking for an equity of (61.40/(189.80+61.40)=) 24.4%.

Of course we have the equity we need when we're up against overpairs and flush draws, but when we're beat, we're really beat, and our equity often sinks as low as just a few percentage points.

Whats yr move?


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: Karabiner on October 22, 2009, 01:38:36 PM
I think that as played I would have to shove here as we have AA,KK,QQ based hands strangled and the pot odds are good.

I don't mind calling with this kind of hand on the button but this flop illustrates the risks that we run when we do.


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: marcin123 on October 22, 2009, 02:19:48 PM
Pass pre... Pass on flop...


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: BigCityBanker on October 22, 2009, 04:32:40 PM
if you are folded this flop (or indeed if you are now advocating a fold) your next move should have been to withdraw all your funds and give up poker. Be sure to contact Stars and tell them to close your account permanently just incase you are tempted to lodge money at any point in the future.

this is a very easy get it in spot. the preflop 3better prolly has AA with nfd and the next man can ofc have the nutleys or set but can also have something like 6789 or similar with hearts which he ofc has to get it in with. Ok, so you are not getting your money in with 50% + equity but you must understand that you dont need that much equity to get it in the middle here. like you are 82bb's deep, this would be an interesting decision if you and Kultia had 150+bb's


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: EvilPie on October 22, 2009, 04:51:25 PM
We need to be much deeper to call this pre. Sticking 20% of our stack in here is very bad.

Once we hit this flop then we can't ever pass. What more do you want??


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: Mitch on October 22, 2009, 04:53:29 PM
We need to be much deeper to call this pre. Sticking 20% of our stack in here is very bad.

Once we hit this flop then we can't ever pass. What more do you want??

 5d 6d 8d ???


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: EvilPie on October 22, 2009, 04:57:37 PM
We need to be much deeper to call this pre. Sticking 20% of our stack in here is very bad.

Once we hit this flop then we can't ever pass. What more do you want??

 5d 6d 8d ???

The chances of getting paid are ridic slim on that flop.

Let's leave the bink 'til the river.


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: poonjoe on October 22, 2009, 05:59:05 PM
if you are folded this flop (or indeed if you are now advocating a fold) your next move should have been to withdraw all your funds and give up poker. Be sure to contact Stars and tell them to close your account permanently just incase you are tempted to lodge money at any point in the future.

this is a very easy get it in spot. the preflop 3better prolly has AA with nfd and the next man can ofc have the nutleys or set but can also have something like 6789 or similar with hearts which he ofc has to get it in with. Ok, so you are not getting your money in with 50% + equity but you must understand that you dont need that much equity to get it in the middle here. like you are 82bb's deep, this would be an interesting decision if you and Kultia had 150+bb's

lol @50% equity. Like i said i'm looking for 25% equity and I'm not sure I have it.

Good point Banker and Pie about bad call pre I need a better hand or a deeper stack to call off $21. However, as you guys know, these double suited straightening hands are absolutely massive when yr up against two players with Aces/high cards.


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: BigCityBanker on October 22, 2009, 06:14:53 PM


lol @50% equity. Like i said i'm looking for 25% equity and I'm not sure I have it.

Good point Banker and Pie about bad call pre I need a better hand or a deeper stack to call off $21. However, as you guys know, these double suited straightening hands are absolutely massive when yr up against two players with Aces/high cards.


Id doubt you are far off 25% equity - like it depends on what his opening range is - like maybe the 3better has naked aces and Kulita has Ax with the NFD - id struggle to want to fold this.

also - I think you are overrepresenting the strength of your hand preflop - sure its double suited but it is a 2 gapper with low ends


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: poonjoe on October 23, 2009, 02:42:21 PM
yeh too weak to put in 20% of stack probably

anyway

poonjoe: folds
swooshdog4: calls $25.70 and is all-in

*** TURN *** 7c 4h 3h 5s
*** RIVER *** 7c 4h 3h 5s 7h

swooshdog4: shows   Aspades 9h Ad 6s (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Kutila: shows 6h Kh 8h Qc (a flush, King high)
Kutila collected $252.40 from pot


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: GreekStein on October 23, 2009, 02:48:58 PM
yeh too weak to put in 20% of stack probably

anyway

poonjoe: folds
swooshdog4: calls $25.70 and is all-in

*** TURN *** 7c 4h 3h 5s
*** RIVER *** 7c 4h 3h 5s 7h

swooshdog4: shows   Aspades 9h Ad 6s (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Kutila: shows 6h Kh 8h Qc (a flush, King high)
Kutila collected $252.40 from pot

Norrrrr


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 23, 2009, 04:25:41 PM
WTF u put 20% in then hit GIN and dont go with it. arghhhhhhhh


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: EvilPie on October 23, 2009, 04:34:22 PM
Worrying about being up against a set when you have 3 pairs is terrible thinking.

You can't be scared of that unless you're really deep and the betting goes crazy, Even then to be fair a set won't go mad as there's a straight already with a flush draw as well.

As long as you learn from this there's no real problem.

1 - Don't flatting for 20% of your stack with a drawing hand unless it's a fantastic one.

2 - Don't pass 3 pair when you've committed 20% of your stack.

I might alter number 1 slightly. There aren't many situations where I'd ever flat for 20% of my stack. Most hands I shove or pass.

Possibly call with 5678ds if I'm 100% certain oppo has AA and will 100% stack off if I hit something.


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: riverdave on October 24, 2009, 10:03:00 AM
yeh too weak to put in 20% of stack probably

anyway

poonjoe: folds
swooshdog4: calls $25.70 and is all-in

*** TURN *** 7c 4h 3h 5s
*** RIVER *** 7c 4h 3h 5s 7h

swooshdog4: shows   Aspades 9h Ad 6s (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Kutila: shows 6h Kh 8h Qc (a flush, King high)
Kutila collected $252.40 from pot

Was thinking of entering into debate with you on the other PLO thread now i've just read this don't think i will bother. This is just so ridiculously bad pls don't ever cashout kthx.


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: poonjoe on October 24, 2009, 11:22:33 AM
Funny how all the judgemental comments come after the reveal.

riverdave don't know you but yr attitude is a real shame have a nice life

I put my mistakes on here to have constructive criticism not snobbish put downs


Title: Re: The flop loves me, or loves me not?
Post by: riverdave on October 24, 2009, 12:06:48 PM
Funny how all the judgemental comments come after the reveal.

riverdave don't know you but yr attitude is a real shame have a nice life

I put my mistakes on here to have constructive criticism not snobbish put downs

I only read this thread after the reveal my comments would have been the same if one of them turned over 7756, the point is after the preflop call and action this is a ridiculous scared fold.

Regards your other comment you were the one that gave me attitude in the other thread suggesting i had ignored all previous debate.

I guess my underlying point was that there was little point debating with you so that'll be my last comment on the subject.