blonde poker forum

I really enjoyed Flushy tournament diary last month so I thought if anyone was interested I might do a diary of a busy weekend's gambling.. (Horse Racing. Football and NFL)

I don't usually make targets but if I can nick 3k over the next couple of days I might well play the heads up at the Vic next week, so that's the aim.

Probably won't have time to explain most of the bets, but I will leave nothing out win/lose or draw.

Sounds excellent. Backing the championship game tonight?

*loads up Betfair account in anticipation*

yes please keith, would be very interested in reading

I kinda like Sheff Weds, but had them in at 21/10 which means I need at least 3.3 before backing them and I doubt it will get that big..

Prob trade it in running, but anyways, will start diary tomorrow.

;popcorn;

Yes please!

Could be epic ... but please indulge a nosey bastard and post the stakes ... none of this points bollocks if you dont mind.

Good luck with the bets.

+1

Looking forward to this.

Any good things over the weekend Camel?

Good luck!

 ;popcorn;

Should be good imo, will read it with interest.
How are you at handling losing runs Keith?

Pretty good, used to tilt like mad, especially when I was unlucky with a bet (had two horses beaten which traded at 1.01 yesterday and I would have been mad 20 years ago). but now I just take the good with the bad and hopefully at the end of the year I've made a few quid.

There's one horse running tomorrow which I really think has a huge future, and the race it's in has a great shape for betting so it could be a lump on.. but we shall see what happens with the betting (and hopefully the self certificates don't get used so we can get 1/4 1,2,3,4)

A couple of football matches really appeal strongly too, but early days.

Oh and there's a horse at Newbury which could well turn out to be a monster lay for me.

 ;mexicanwave;

Can you do this next weekend as well?

Are you going to be posting your picks up before Kickoffs, start of races etc? (abviously after your stake has been matched)

Yep, that's the aim.

Lucky I didn't include this evening... in the process of doing my cobblers on Watford v Sheff Wed.

Looking forward to following this.

Good Luck !

what about stakeage from blondes, not staking as such but just bang our stake on with yours, blondes would not mind a loss if it turned out that way i'm sure, hell of a weekends entertainment for us probably.

could be a plan, however if he is going to post up his bets before the go off, surley you can just follow with your own accounts

Keith thanks for doing this.

You have mentioned before that to find true value you price a book yourself.

You do this for all Football, NFL and Horses?  Any others?  Everyday? All mettings /games?
or are you following particular circumstances, teams, patterns, days to cut down your research and seek out particular opportunities?

This should be good.

Me and Gatso have a friendly bet on the Atlanta @ Dallas(-4) game, which side of this bet do you like.

Probably too late notice to do this.

I'll try and put up the bets as early as possible although when it gets to near 3.00pm it does get a bit hectic.

Always religiously do it for Prem, Championship football and NFL.

Racing is a little harder because there are more intangibles especially with unexposed horses. You have to be a bit more flexible but when theres a race I'm interested in I will usually have a price in mind where the horse becomes a bet or a lay.

I will have an in depth study of the NFL tomorrow evening, been concentrating on tomorrows horses so far this evening.

If I had a free bet without doing any work I would back Atlanta +4.

Should be great read - GL for w/e Camel

I've probably picked the worst weekend of the year to do this.. the cards are pretty bloody difficult today. But I hope I've found a couple of opportunites..

£400 Each way Bakbenscher 13/2 1.55 Chepstow. They are backing the jolly like it's the second coming of Denman, but it really makes the market for mine which already has the form in the book to go close in this and has, to my eyes, virtually unlimited potential. I would definitely have had more on except he's slightly weak on betfair (probably more down to the strength of the jolly) and I'm really worried a great each way bet will become a terrible one if less than 16 go to post.. (one already withdrawn).

£100 Each way Enroller 13/1 2.35 Newbury. I don't really fancy this particularly but he's going to start alot shorter and I'll probably trade with it. (It's £50 ew at 14/1 and £50 ew at 12/1)

£50 Win Sohcahtoa 25/1 4.55 Newbury. This would have been the best each way race for many moons, with 2 unexposed and underpriced horses at the top of the market and a couple of proven soft ground horses at big prices but there was always going to be non runners so there's no point crying over spilt milk... I have taken a chance with this horse who has run well on soft before and has been crying out for a move up in trip.

There are a couple more races I'm interested in, not sure if I'm going to play yet though..

;popcorn;

norrr, 15 in the 1.55 now.

my mate lemony told me about a 26/1 shot at donny in the 1530, Musaafer

Into 9/1 already

Why would less runners in this race make it a worse e/w option?

Only three places E/W now.

Probs cos less runners might mean less places paid?

In handicap races, if there are 1-4 runners, its win only, 5-7 runners you get paid out on the top 2 for EW purposes, 8-15 runners you get paid on 3 places, 16+ runners you get paid on 4 places.

So if the horse comes 4th now that there are only 15 runners, we lose everything. And it could come 4th, as it should be up there, but its a competitive race.

This is not the case on betfair, they maintain the same amount of places no matter how many horses pull out, but the odds worsen obv.

GL with this Keith, will keep a close eye on them.
I'd be keen to take on Alfie Sherrin too at Cheppers. My only worry with Bakbenscher, aside from the fact there are now only 15 in, is that he's not looked a natural jumper of hurdles to date and I hate backing dodgy jumpers round here. The undulations seem to accentuate the problem.
Dukes Art 8.40 Kempton my only pre-race bet today.

Betfair is still 4 places payed, but the odds reflect that, Bakbenscher to win is 8.6, and to place in top 4 is 2.02!

Urgh hate the each way bit now on Bakbenscher.. might well top up on the win bit pre race.

Had a couple more bets:

£500 win Layla's Hero @ 2/1 2.55 Donny. Probably a sucker bet, but clearly the form horse in the race and if he shows the turn of foot he did last time out they have him to beat. Was 2.8 on the machine when I bet him so couldn't go far wrong.

£100 each way Ocean Transit @ 20/1 3.10 Newbury. Backed purely down to information.

Really not sure what to do with the Racing Post Trophy..

My instinct is to oppose the O'Brien beast, but the more I look at it, the more I can't find anything to beat it.. Probably going to pass.

Bet365 give money away on a Saturday. They give you a free bet if you back a tv winner of 4/1+ upto £50, so I will play a little with them throughout the afternoon.

keith it surprises me that you have a view and position in so many races. Especially the stakes your playing.

Wait until the afternoon gets going!

Normally have some sort of action in over 50% of races, although due to the difficulty of the cards and changes in the going it will probably be less today.

I virtually never bet on QPR games, but I really fancy them strongly today.

Derby are injury ravaged (up to 10 first teamers out) and Rangers are absolutely on fire, 8 goals in the last two games.

I've had £1200 @ 13/8. You can't get this anywhere online and will struggle in the shops, but I'm friendly with the local Ladbrokes manager and she turns a blind eye to bets like this :)

I like them too scoring goals for fun atm

Opened 21/10 on Wed/Thursday on QPR..

I take it this was before the derby injuries were known.

2.42 on BF, pretty pants

Had £200 on under 14.5 corners in the Wolves/Villa game @ evens.

Spread price was 13.75-14.25 which meant under 14.5 should have been about 8/11.

Scraps of value.

Nice read Keith - gl with it

£100 win Swiss Cross @ 4/1 1.25 Donny.

I can still get 7to4 on qpr over here in ireland

Had to back it again.. £100 win Swiss Cross @ 9/2

Get on it then and arb, if you can.

Please do your research properly!

Derby have been short 10-12 players for weeks, including 6-7 key players 

they came to Leicester last week, parked 11 men behind the ball and heaven knows how they escaped 0-0

Went to Boro and got tonked on chances and scoreline

QPR should be a good thing today

I am ;)

zomg, the outsider of the whole field won at Donny, matched at 90 pre race.

ul Keith, but lets gogogogogo

I like Reve de Sevola here, but not at this price.. pass.

Sorry to after time, but I did back it in running dunno if that should count. £250 @ evens.

Sweet!

doesnt count please send me the 250 you cheated...your lucky we arent demanding 500...

gl with this Keith.

good so far.

Had a lump on Reve De Sivola @ 2.4 after Rooks told me Trigg had some info on it, and had a double on it with yr horse in the 1.55 @ 7/1. lets gogogo plz.

lol what the fuck are you on about, i never said i researched it, i was only ASKING if the price drop was due to the injuries? Get a grip.

Many corners so far in the wolves game?

overreaction?

£50 win Bob bob Bobbin @ 6/1 1.40 Aintree

8 at half time.

Still slight jolly.

It's gonna really busy for the next hour.

It's like being in a Delhi call centre, on the phone non stop and clicking my mouse like a lunatic, will at least try and get the football bets up well before kick off.

Meanwhile Sell corner supremecy £100 Wolves/Aston Villa @ 4.25.

Do you do all your punting yourself keith?

No, he jumped the gun TBF

go go go Camel

Pretty much, got a couple of guys who put on for me when I need to sweep alot of shops for one bet but apart from that I do it all myself. No wonder I'm going grey.

Laid £100 @ evens in running.

Stupid price.

lol youve backed absolutely everything

its fucking hard work.

Money finally coming for Bakbenscher.

Had another £100 @ 8/1.

LOL, sure is.

What a horrible ride Thornton gave that :( sorry guys.

He'll certainly be one for again.

not info on reve de sivola, but shrewd judge gave it as a 4pnt win, his first 4pt win in 2 years. got 2.26 tho :-(

had small e/w double on lysandser 7/2 won and tartak 7/2 in the 2.15  one time plz

changed my footy bet due to forest injuries,

cardiff and sunderland double. gl keith

tempted to get on the over somewhere and give 4/5 corner middle?

sigh, very novicey

I can only get on fixed odds with your lot (you work for b365 right?) so can't really do it..

Football.

Bloody hard this week.

£500 Wigan @ 3.15
LAY £500 West Brom @ 2.1
£250 Scunthorpe @ 3.55
£250 Blackpool @ 4

Laid £100 on Enroller @ 9/1, so locked up a nice freeroll. Keeping the place part.

i do. going to get a nice scoop anyway, that was a big line imo.

i have laied chealsea at 1.21 bet the draw in the burnley wigan game and gotten half my bet matched on blackpool at 4.1

Layed half of the Layla's Hero bet back at 2.5.. too short imo.

had a word for al zir in 3.30 donny.

Booya!!

Gets me in front for the day. I was never confident he didt seem to settle at all ran well to win.

Zing, Ocean Transit gets up for third.

How strong of word?

I had a tenner e/w on Rookie's word in this Co-ordinted Cut just for a sweat


Great thread Keith a real interesting read, best of luck

Big drifter now.

What a dream run through Murtagh got. Superb ride.

id have won on it micko

Lol it didt win that easy ;D

£200 Gaelic Flight @ 9/4 3.50 Stratford

Jesus Christ how did that get beat?

it didnt run as fast as the horse in front of it i presume!

1.02.

wp Nick Schofield, take it easy mate.

Esp when Oscar Bay always finishes with an absolute rattle.

It's amazing the amount of times the outsider wins when it's small fields.

Pretty awesome thread.  I am also surprised by the volume of action you have.  I would expect that you would be more inclined to have less action at bigger stakes.  Seems like you have something in every other race that just seems like casual punting to me.  Good luck with the rest of your selections.  I hope you scoop.

My one bet for the day is Best Oscar in the 4:25 @ Strattford.  Any opinions on this race?

Anyone Else?

come on, bring all youve got.

Believe me this has been quiet for a Saturday. Usually have twice as many bets but ground worries have cut me back quite a bit today.

Sorry haven't looked at that race beyond seeing it looked a bad betting race.

What you on about?

so is your main aim overall to take advantage of lots of small edges rather than hitting something big on a less frequent basis?

lol

Exactly, that's the aim.

Although I'm not averse to going for the jackpot f I think there is massive value.

Slightly concerned by the move for what appears to the stable 2nd string in this Strattford race.

Could this be to try and get soe value out of the first string?  

Added £70 win Wintercast @ 14/1 and £60 win King Charles @ 16/1 in the 4.55 Newbury.

Fuck off Hawkins.

Lordy, hope you are on rakeback Keith :D

What sort of corporate kickbacks do you get back for your action?  e.g. box at Gold Cup, Cup Final hospitality etc....

up or down?

LOL Rooks

keith or stephen?

Think he means the estate agent.

I once got a calender from Betfair.

Keith, I am on your lot at 11/8. GL

Dunno exactly. Down small on the racing, but the football was decent.

All depends on QPR, will finalise the figures after that.

Just looked at the teamsheet. Routledge and Buzsaky will be licking their lips.

Did you lay Rainbow Peak?

No.

What then?

Boing Boing :(

Let me down for a bag - won you a monkey.

I did the other two you added in that race, I just like the sweats lol

Just added up the figures.

Horses - £155 (although there's probably a rule 4 on Ocean Transit to come off)

Football +£1150

Come on you R'ssssssssssssss

Ooops.

derby done all there money on t-shirts, get the fkin sprinkler on the pitch ffs, pitch dry as a bone

Fuck it, had another £200 @ 4/1.

wtf ref

Derby 2-0 now :(

Since when have BBC been showing champ games?

game on

The start of this season, the first one was Newcastle v West Brom

just this season

it's like a freekick masterclass out there

QPR been so much better

£300 Over 5.5 corners at 1.9...

you've gotta like the 3 in injury time then

It was a stupid price, the spreads were 6.5-7.. which meant the price should have been about 2/5. Kicking myself for not having more on!

I dunno, from what I can see QPR have been absolutely all over them.

Lay the 1.75 Derby?

ya, we still got a massive squeak here keith, when savages and dikovs legs go, and routledge gets clear.

I've layed £1000 @ 1.74.

One timeeeeeeeeeeeee

Good lay imo.

got to love what Clough thinks "We are 2-1 up, we'll try to hang on"

Positive thinking ftw.

come on hoops

zing zing zing zing

nice lay keith

now we just need 1 more goal to make up for the tenner i put on them horses of yours

come on rangers, make derby pay for their fkin horrible football style

Nothing at Kempton tonight Keith The Camel?

Had £200 on Derby @ 4/1.. that price is bit of an overreaction I think.

Nah, not even looked

wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Wiiiiiiii 3-2 QPR

can see a derby red card soonweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

weeee, 2-3

Come on the corners

WHUC here comes the camel

I was cursing my luck at HT, had QPR @ 7/5 and 5/1 and Drogba anytime 11/10, what a turn around.

bink

What would Clough say if he was interviewed right now?

Layed £1000 @ 1.26. No matter how bad Derby have been, they will surely put us under pressure for the lat 15 minutes.

fair enough giving up when you're running bad at 2-0 down but doing it when you're 2 up, lol derby

Fuck me that was a good chance.

i did it at 1.25 but not a grand

Coral had the draw at 9/1 with 5 mins left, the best priced aroung at the same time was 6/1.
They also held the biggest price on QPR before the kick off so obviously trying to get a few quid back on this game.

pay pay pay

disgusting throwing tshirts on the pitch, hope they go to people who need clothes to live.

+£3755 on the day.

Plenty of NFL ammo for tomorrow!

youve made your target you going to continue after making your target?

What do gamblers do?

They gamble.

Not going to twiddle my thumbs while there's a full NFL card tomorrow, gonna kick on!

omg - censorship

np keith

i was just wondering as you had set a target for the WHUC if now you had reached that target you were going to stop the challenge

boooooo. where're all the comedy posts?

just to make it clear it wasnt me that censored the posts but the mods are IMHO right to keep petty fights off the boards

Did I miss something?

Well done today Keith

I've deleted all that stuff. For the record we don't like the use of the word "retarded" on the forum (or moron, or anything similar). Just look at the arguments it causes. Lets drop it now please

it was horrible keith, i'm still a little shocked by it all.  vile

It wasn't 2 girls 1 cup was it?

worse

either that or the biggest overreaction in the history of the internet

lol, ironside knows me well enough to know i would never mean any personal harm with that comment.

What a ridic brush under the carpet. No need for threats or deletion.

Rich, ill ask again, i was called a moron this weekend, do i not count?

not trying to push it, just would like to know why that wasn't deleted?

Dave's took enough stick - from both Ironside and Tightend (as well as myself and others obv)..

Don't see him flaring up like Iron did or any of our/his comments being deleted?

please show me a post where i have insulted someone an insult that if it had been my best mate and live would have gotten him a physical reaction from me

This, its only a bit of banter FFS

Chill out.

Although im curious for an answer from you Rich?

we cant show you the post as its been deleted.

Yes you count

We can't catch everything at the moment, too few of us and those of us on are too busy often

I'll try and catch it next time, if not hopefully a colleague will.

See, I missed somepost  research  ;oopsy;

from memory you said that you planned on putting rick in hospital... dont quote me on it but i think you said... 'call me a retard and i will break your legs'

ha ha, i did lol there.

Do your research properly next time Rich FFS!

no post of mine that was deleted had me insulting anyne

just making a threat which i have appolgied for im PM

my mistake.  can all my posts be deleted along with all the quotes of my posts please

Has anyone ever told you, you can't spell Ali

And this is what I said you did - threat.. Whats your problem, i'm saying its been ridic brushed under the carpet because it's you.

And lol @ asking me to show you a post when its been deleted, nice effort.

careful rookie... if this was live...

I'm surprised you have any mates if thats the case.

Back to the task in hand.

The Angels have drifted massively tonight and I think they are a backable price now.

They got to Pettite in game 3 and the Yankees with the exception of CC and Rivera are looking a bt twitchy to my eyes.

£300 LA Angels @ 17/10

you havent any idea abour why its offensive to me so pls stay out of it

Yes he does Iron.

Ironside has apologised for over-reacting

I didn't pull the comments because it was Ironside. I pulled them because it was getting out of hand, or about to. I have plenty of experience in these things!

Case over, please


Now then, go LA Angels for Keith

i'm interested to know how long you have been interested in NFL.  It seems to be taking off in a big way in this country, i've never been interested but interested to know how long you've followed it.

you do know he is talking about MLB not NFL

Yes I do, total over reaction.

shut up dave, or i will call you horrible names.

in your opinion it might be in mine its not and my mates understand

which is proberly why your not one of my mates

Had to go out for the evening wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii £400 @7/4 QPR.

Get in!

well ill just PM my big mate Rich, he'll sort you out!

I have follews NFL for about 20 years.

I used to price it up for Blue Square and is the sport I'm most confident about beating betting wise. I've had 2 losing seasons since I started betting on it in about 1988.

Betting in running is absolutely free money*
















*watch me do my cobblers tomorrow,

I might try to watch a bit, see what all the fuss is about!

Very true as we would spend more time eating Hospital food than in the Pub.

Couple of questions Keith.

What kind of bankroll are we talking here?  as a percentage of that what would be a big bet?

NFL I hear that Bucs travelled early yesterday morning and were struggling to sleep when they arrived.  Also heard the O-line want to  kill Wilmslow already and that they were unable to train at Wembley this morning.  Would this affect your view of game?
Would you have any interest in supplying your nfl lines again?  not for bookmaking firm but for personal punting use?  PM if so.

I can't really say what my bankroll is, bit personal you know? Let me put it this way. If I have a big bet and it loses it hurts (sometimes alot) but it doesn't mean I'llbe down the job centre in the morning.

The Buccs are shot. They obviously aren't playing for the coach and signing Winslow and ditching Brooks were both awful personel decisions. I feel very sorry Josh Johnson who has quite alot of potential but will probably never get another chance with an NFL team after going 1-15 or whatever sorry total the Buccs finish with this season.

I thought the teams had settled on staying on American time. It certainly makes more sense. If they move to British time jetlag is obv a problem.

What do you have in mind re: the lines. Pm me and let me know.

Game for me this week Keith is the Vikings at the Steelers

Any views

Not sure what I am doing wrong but I can't PM.  Is it something to do with my status as new member?  can you email me an email addy?? using the thing at the side under my username?

re: Bucs.  I heard they got a midnight curfew and were complaining as were obviously not tired.

Sorry wasn't meaning to ask personal questions just trying to get an idea of risk in relation to BR.  

You can send PMs once you've made 10 posts. It's an anti PM spam measure, sorry

Usual wisdom would be never to risk more than 1% of your br on one bet.. (I'm ashamed to admit I haven't stuck by this!)

Email sent

postponed because of rain. playing tomorrow now

This in particular annoyed me about whilst reading this thread. Tghty having a go at Dave for a random reason.

fwiw

This was, or was intended to be, dry humour, in the context of banter on other threads. I think Dave realised this in the end. I wasn't having a go at all

TBF i didn't realise it in the end, i just let it go as i couldn't be arsed arguing (you can't win argumentys versus Mods, they will just delete and ban you).

Usually with dry humour or jokes, i would use a smiley or something to show this.

Anyway, don't want to drag up old arguments, so lets get back to Camels bets!

Camel what you on with the footy today?, any tastey markets?

i love sundays, but so much i wanna get involved on, and my new debit card doesnt come until tommorow, so got £280 in cash to accomodate me, gonna be tough.

like these in the NFL, just from what a guy says, i have no clue yet but like watching it

pats - 14.5
falcons + 4.5
cardinals +7
saints -6

i also like man utd, bolton and city ht/ft

theres also 3 meetings over the sticks, and xfactor eliminations.
oh, and poker,  sick day

a treble for purely tv rail

Man utd v l'pool - Draw
Ars v West Ham - Ars
Patriots - -14.5

8/1

sick, went out for a beer late last night, 11.45pm and bumped into someone ive not seen for ages and he remembered i owed him £50 from like 6 years ago, so even shorter than i thought i was. Got a mate to put my horse racing bets on. Got £150 on man utd at 2.54

and having £60 westham v arsenal over 2.5 goals at 4/6 doubled with the saints -6 @ 10/11

also having a small £25 double on pats -14.5 @ 10/11 and falcons +4.5 @ 10/11 for a tv rail sweat.

playing no poker today, just too busy with action :)

add £150 on man city HT-FT @ 7/5 to the mix, nipped a bet till my new debit card arrives.

My housemate could rly put a spanner in the works today by coming home and asking for xfactor on in the middle of the pats game.
My saving grace might be the fact that ive said im buying a new tv next week, she wont want to jeapordise that.

£20 on United/Ars/City @ 5.36 for a pub sweat.

Good post Rick.

My own thoughts:

Racing
Fancy 3 horses today at Aintree in the last 3 races and have punted accordingly:

3.20. Not a huge fancy but i've had £50 on Astarador @ 6.6. I had a big bet on this horse at Cheltenham this year @ like 33s, and it showed up well for a while before finishing 8th and Howard Johnson said he didnt get on well with the track. Its latest performance after that wasnt anything special but im still willing to take a chance @ a reasonable price. This horse is a front runner.

3.55. I fancy Pure Faith and can't really see him finishing outside the top 3 and have had £75EW with Betfred @ 4/1 earlier. Its 7/2 best now, and ill be devd if he doesnt place. Had his debut over hurdles recently, coming 2nd in a photo and jumped really nicely. Paddy Brennan takes over from regular rider Donald Duck Devereux which is obviously a big positive.

4.30. This is the race im most excited about cos im freerolling which is mev. One of my friends from my former workplace Skybet told me that a Pipe informant had given a really strong word for Grands Crus so i lumped £100 win on @ 4.78 on Betfair with the intention to let the bet ride. I couldnt resist laying off @ 3.2 though an hour later for my stake, given the fact that this mate of mine hardly ever gives me winning tips and it would mean a £150 freeroll of green. I could Blatchly it to lock up a £47 profit on all outcomes, but that would sure be exciting. £150 freeroll, lets gogogo!

NFL
I don't know anything about NFL but quite enjoy watching it. Its not great, but its ok.
Rooks' mate has had 4 winning tips in a row on the hcaps and has plumped for Saints -6 @ 10/11 against the Dolphins today. Current price on betfair is 2.02 so am having £100 on at this price atm, and might have more on later.

Football
Will probs take it easy on todays football as i make my money in the championship and league one and don't do too well with the prem. Will have a few bets but need to see line ups first really. Slight interest in a back of Liverpool and in a lay of Man City, but is line up dependant so no bets yet.

mbn to get a bet on with betfred

Astarador is a horse i have followed. I think 2 miles on good ground isn't a tough enough stamina test. I don't fancy it today. Will probably bolt in now.

Personally think Man City are a huge price today at 2's on. 

One of the best home records in the league last year and now with a much better team and squad.  Started well at home this year and I think Fulham will still be devvo after conceeding 92nd minute goal to Roma on Thursday.

where is our hero camel with his thoughts bets on todays games?  or have i missed him saying he's not getting invloved?

I had a monkey on Man Utd at 19/10 the moment Gerrard came off against Lyon and I'm happy to stick with that.

I've had a huge word for a horse today but can't really say it on a forum.. I guess I should have sold shares in my action this weekend!

Will be trading the football in running and NFL bets to come :D

gogogogo

sigh... would love a tip today.... desperatly need a decent winnar!

juuuuuuuuuuune :(

Need to get out from yest.

Pls don't say things like this at all. I'm now a little tilted and I haven't even loaded up a table yet

its like saying 'i've got an amazing secret to tell you about...actually best not...sorry'

Let the man get his price ... I am sure he will share as soon as he is fulll loaded.

If he can't say it then he can't say it. For all we know, it could be a major source for Keith but if he spills the secrets he loses the source.

Don't worry, it got beaten you will all be pleased to hear :)

I shouldn't have made the original post, sorry.

But it was from one of my absolutely best sources and he would have been furious if the 100-1 shot of him finding out I had put it on a forum.

fair enough.  I think its only fair you povide me with a dead cert for being so understanding!  lol

has your position changed at all in the Liverpool game after the first half?

Been trying to get matched on the draw virtually all game, but the market moving just too quickly!

£200 Under 9.5 corners @ 1.95 should have been 4/5..

i hate laid the draw as the price has dropped all match there has to be a goal in the 95 minute 1 time pls or i lose 1/3 of betfair account

How has Carragher deteriated so quickly?

Last seasn he was the best centre back in the league, now he's a donk..

:( :(

get in there

what price would you trade out of liverpool if you had backed them before the game at 3.25?  Its something i struggle with never knowing the best time to trade out of a bet...

dont mind the draw now

was thinking of laying the draw for the rest of my account

just before the draw as i was sure there was going to be a goal

I think 1.4 is a bit big at this stage... I would be looking for 1.3ish before getting out with 25 minutes left

personally i would trade out now its reach 1.4

but i am a chicken not a gambler

ty.  I guess lots of people want to trade out which will keep the price high during the ten mins after the goal, prob best to let those get out, waiting until the price corrects.

Exactly. Often backing a team just after they've scored is very good value.

What sort of reaction did Owen get when he played for Newcastle against Liverpool? (Assuming he wasn't injured)

in to 1.32 now.  I should look into how many times a team scores in the 10 mins straight after a goal, might be something that is well worth exploiting.

he was booed

Is it worth laying Liverpool (fresh bet, not greening out)  Man U seem to score a lot late on if they need too?

Or would I be pissing my money away as per usual?

i was thinking of using some of my green to back man u with 10 mins left its not unlike them to score 2 late goals then i remembered it was anfield not old trafford

Liverpool      +£47.62

Draw           +£47.50

Man Utd      +£47.50

micro stakes FTMFW

Damn I wish I was better at this sort of thing, the odds after the goal went from 1.4 to 1.3 and back again, then 1.3 to 1.2 and back again. I guess some have made loads trading that.

I was so close to selling the bookings 10 minutes ago, thank God I resisted the temptation.

QFT. If I had done it for my normal unit stakes I would given back all yesterday profits... Make up 100

dont like my tenner on rafa to be next manager to go now

lol, would have been a sick end to the weekend, every1 went mad towards the end of the game!

NFL bets (early games)

£1200 Houston -3 @ 5/6
£550 Chicago -1 @ 10/11
Buy £50 Houston supremecy @ 4.5

gogogogo

£300 Over 13 corners West Ha/Arsenal. (13 is a push) @ 1.975

I'm on chicago +1. is yours a typo or have the lines moved?

It's probably an embarrasing question but I don't know so I'll ask - what's a line? I.e. what do you mean by the lines moving or when Redarmi asked "Would you have any interest in supplying your nfl lines again" yesterday?

Thanks :kiss:

-1.5 now. Although the move from -1 to +1 is the smallest 2 point line there is (if that makes any sense lol)

Still +1.5 with Tote so it says on oddschecker anyway!

He just wanted to know if I was interested in selling my NFL selections.

GL getting a decent bet on with the Tote.

I manage to - they are about the only bookies that are ok for me.

This worth a decent bet?

Houston is my best of the weekend.

But I really like Chicago too. +1.5 makes it even more attractive.

Cool ta... Did you not fancy the 6.0 on the Saints?

watching the arsenal game

think arsenal are lucky to be 1 up

liking the look of westham am i the only 1 that thinks 28.0 is too big to ignore?

still +1 on sky keith if they'll take your bets

Haven't bet the late games yet.. but doubtful I will bet them. Little bit worried they will let down after last weeks performance. Certainly couldn't back the Dolphins though.

sure had any bets on the above.

and my horses were shite.

Doing it all.

Houston -3.5 is 2.02 on Betfair Keith, i might move all in on there.

Hills, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Sky, Bluesq and Tote limit me to such an extent it isn't even worth trying there. Bet365 are the only Britsih bookmaker which take my online bets. (VC do too, but I had a dispute with them which means I don't bet with them unless they are giving money away).

I bet with them and a few Carribbean books + the spread firms.

can I get your opinion on the 6/1 available on the saints to take the AL title. looks like good value to me with the rain delay meaning lackey's likely to start a 7th game

I've taken the overs on 9 runs tonight as well as the yankees are going to have to go for it, they can't afford to rely on a 7th with him starting

generally referring to the handicap. yanks like to do even money bets on games with a points handicap rather that betting ftw

If i get weighed in on this Houston bet, whats the best website to track NFL games live updates wise plz.

Sabathia has been a beast so far this series. In fact since the all star break he's been the best pitcher in baseball imo.

6/1 is fair, but I couldn't oppose CC with a pitcher on 3 days rest.

Still like the Angels tonight though.

I use sportsline.com

Ah, thanks.  Didn't realise the liked even money bets, I get it all now.   Thought Redarmi was after something else too, but it all makes sense, cheers Dan and Keith.

I like nfl.com for the game center

Houston ara 10/11 -3.5 with McBookie is this worth getting involved in?

Where'd all the money on BF go, down to 1.42 although last taken was at 1.76

scrub that, it was only a few quid anyway

gone in play, market non-existant during in play i believe

Why did you go for this one Keith?

Looks a bad bet to me

There have been 10 corners in first half alone.  Looks a good bet to me.

LOL OWNED CONSTI!

not really, that's results orientated.

omg, number 75 for the Patriots is fat as fuck!!!!

I thought Middy was playing American Football for a minute!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a few chubbies on the pitch!  Damn it looks good in HD too! 

Not results orientated as at all you posted your thoughts on the bet at half time.

I dunno if its a good bet pre-match or not as its not a market I would ever consider betting. 

If you had said earlier in the day then perhaps the mertits and the logic could have been discussed.

Over the years I have come to realise the spread price on various things is more accurate that the fixed odds price.

When I had this bet the spread price was 13.75-14.25 which means the price on over 13 should have been around 4/7 or 8/13.

wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 7-0 Houston

Pats looking to continue from last week!

Texans defense playing awesome so far.

Fuck. 68 yard punt return td called back for a penalty.

Internet feed on the texan game?, cos this snash from wembeley is gonna be a washout, vikings steelers would of been my choice if sky did the champs league red button for nfl.

Wow thats a bit of a stupid post isn't it Josep? I hadn't been watching the game and was unaware there were 10 corners in the first half, not that this would have affected my question to Keith.

I was curious to know as 13 seemed high. Thanks to Camel and Rooks I understand the thikning behind it.

It was an inrunning bet after 2 corners in the first 5 minutes.

Usually under/over 11 or 11.5 pre match.

wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Houston recover muffed punt @ sf 10 ;sexybanana; ;sexybanana; ;sexybanana; ;sexybanana; ;sexybanana;

come on the hammers

ffs, I'm on Arsenal -1 and -1.5!   Come on Gooners

Go Houston!   What gives in the score, it was 0-13 for about ten mins,  now it's back to 0-7!

I usually use channelsurfing.net but the site seems to be down. adthe.com fucks my computer but might be ok for you.

Weighed in on the corners :D

1.01 Patriots looks good value.

New england clean sheet (nap).

come on the hammers pls score now

such a weak pen

They got a td on a punt return, but it was called back for an illegal block.

Never fear, theyve got another td now anyways :P

sorry silo i laid arsenal at 1.02
traded a bit off at 1.14
was about to trade the rest off when the pen was given and my bet was cancelled

brag post, ban please :D

No need to apologies, nice going imo

zing zing zing 21-0

the whole way through the game i havve fancied west ham was going to get on them at 28.0 when 1 nil down but bottled it when they went 2 nil down although i had laid arsenal pre match i laid them some more as the odds tumbled just wish i hadnt bottled out when they got the first goal i could of bought into the million for the return instead i am now greened for about 20 notes all round

I'm can't see why you'd lay them pre match, surely a brave move, however nice result.

On the plus side, I stuck an extra cheeky fiver at 3.0 on the -3.5 Houston when they were 14 up and it's been matched :D, makes up for the fiver I lost on the Arsenal (hopefully)

CL weeks i never fancy the teams playing in it to have a fast start so was hoping there price was going to drift  and back them when there price improved to make a little return for small risk, unfortunattley it didnt work as arsenal scored before the price improved
same happened in chelsea match yesterday and i lost whats normally a big bet for me

Sf go for 4th down at Hous38.

[ x ] fail

Second Half Bet

£600 Indy/Rams UNDER 21 @ 5/6

Second Half Bet

£600 New England -6.5 @ 5/6

Just in case you don't know, a second half bet on the NFL treats the second half like a totally new game starting at 0-0. So you can win a second half bet despite the team you've backed losing the game.

Are these all with bet365?

thats intresting because you know who has kick off at start of half which i think has a huge advantage in that bet

pinnacle and betcris.

Bet365 and Hills bet on the second half too, but the lines were better with the books I played with.

:( td san fran. They've put their backup QB in, who is considerably better than the starter imo. Bad news all round.

Touchdown pats, sweet.

Got on with one slightly worse and the other slightly better.
I have been saying to anyone who would listen that 365 are the best online bookies.I was on Coral yesterday for the first time in 6 months and that is one terrible website they have.

Corals are the absolutely pits. Worse than even Ladbrokes. And that's saying something.

Bet365 give a great service betting in running and covering so many sports. Stan James good too.

Fuck a duck, fumble Houston :(

Just home was out most of the day

Stuck £20 on Valencia at half time @ 2.5

54 mins in 1-0 valencia

Laying it all off @ 1.28

Almeria £0
Valencia £23.22
Draw £0

will square it up after 75 mins

Jesus Christ, td SF

21-14.

I don't get all the excitement with American Football.  I find in absolutely mind numbing.  I have tried to watch this game on Sky to see what all the fuss is about. 

Now the Cheerleaders hubba bubba!

Almeria down to 10 men, looks like i can square it just just now @ 1.12

Greened out

Almeria +£20.02
Valencia +£20.02
Draw +£20.02

wtf Keith, are we gona lose now?

2 ants walking across a paving slab is superb entertainment if you have a few quid invested ....

poor assessment

I love watching nfl even with no money on the line. just such a great game

obv Houston are gona spite win by 3pts, gg lyfe.

Too many stoppages for me. 

I'm not a big fan of American sport.  But the Basketball is bloody immense. 

Had the ball at the SF 11, 1st and 10.

Sacked -9

Personal Foul -15.

FML

51 yard field goal.

THIS

Jesus Christ. Indy running the clock out.. Score a meaningless td..

sweating the under 21 now.

That looked safe, sweaty Bum time.

FML

San Fran td.

Useless bunch of wankers.

and INDY fol

probably ten to one on to win that bet.. now lost it.

Still can't believe how quick that changed.
Chance here for Houston

Meant to say to appreciate the NFL you have to understand the rules and strategy of the game.

NFL aside, literally put money on something and it can become the most interesting event...

£120 on New England (just to get the return over £100) New Orleans and I hope a Monday night sweat with the Eagles.

One time!!!!

ahhh, gona lose my net by 0.5pts, nh.

sigh not only did i back arsenal but i backed houston -3.5 too.  I laid arsenal off at 2-0 but didnt balance the green...

yeah but that's what's so great about both nfl and mlb. the strategy involved is so in depth and is fascinating as long as you understand it

Houston and Indianapolis can diagf.

At half time I was looking at a 20 point spread win, in the end I lose £75.

fyp.

Dh rules apply I assume?

Really didn't fancy the Milan Game, and could decide on the barca game either, they are too good at home and the odds reflect that.

So just stuck £5 on 4-0 Barca @ 12.0

-3 is a void bet, you just get you stake refunded.

Mugs like Horner play at -3.5.

Bets void, I'll settle for that.
So close yrt so far...

fyp

Probably 33-1 not to win that bet at half time.

Even bigger price to lose the Indy/Rams bet with 4 minutes to go..

FML indeed.

Ha FML, i thought @ 2.02, -3.5 was better value than -3 with the void @ just 1.83.

[  ] I was proven correct.

fml

About 15% of games finish with a 3 point winning margin usually worth taking a slightly worse price and having the 1/2 point onside.

£800 Atlanta to beat Dallas @ 5/4.

That was an amazing drive by the Falcons.

2-0 up after 29 mins, Laid it off @ 4.0

will spread if it gets to 4-0

3-0 after 41 mins

FML Chicago 0-14 :(

New Orleans are the same down too.  Was that you or Horneris?

rooks, jones and marky are all on them

 :( :hello:

4-0 with 30 mins to play, price still 4.6, will need to hold out till 80 mins or so

78th minute and Zaragoza score a consolation, stake back but could get to price to balance my green

£0 profit for this market

Fml.. what did I ever do to Miami!

dave your sending me on life tilt, u claim to be made of money but then wanna lay off a £5 bet. My heads gonna pop.

its getting to the point that i dont even read dave's betting posts...

FYP

nah its gone past that...

I do this with a few people on here.

are you saying you dont read my posts!  thats harsh.

This is going so pear shaped tonight...

That was a huge touchdown for New Orleans to end the half, don't count them out yet.

I dont read the camels, blatch's or thechipprince's posts on here, they're too shrewed and it makes me feel stupid.

I do however read boldie's, dave's and barry nevilles tips with delight knowing i could do a better job backing winners cracking one off over a racing post and seeing where it lands

How did you guess my new system?

LOLOL

lol don't be upset that im showing profit tonight, and you ain't.

Im leagues above you big tits

If you leave your todger alone for a week and try out this system, you could even get a multiple bet.

I love Bolt.

Half Time bet:

£600 New Orleans -7 @ 5/6

Just looking at next weekend's Premiership matches.

Hull are 3/1 to win at Burnley.

I mean, wtf?

I think Burnley are the better team, I've had lumps on them to finish above Hull and to stay up but there is no way on earth they are 4/5 to beat anyone in the Premiership.

3/1 is massive, wonder if someone will go 7/2?

Interception return for a td after 1 minute of the 3rd q wiiiiiiiiiiiiii

come on falcons ffs

What happened to all the posts, it was just getting interesting  ;whistle;

Has Cambo been banned?

Cambo was warned via PM for stirring on a different thread, he then came on here and did the same thing ... he has been suspended until after the weekend ... the mods will review on Monday.

then make him an offer he cant refuse?

GET OUT CAMBO!

-1

i take mine back then

I made a good steady profit whilst in with Boldie's horses thing.

He spotted good value and made consistent profit for the stakers.

Ok Dave is clearly absolutely clueless though so I'll give you that one.

I had 20 @  5.1  on the acc, last game was Giants so I put £25 on Arizona @ 4.0

I now pick up w/e the result the same amount give or take some pennies.


I'm still pretty novice and just back faves or what you guys on here seem to like (beers to be bought at a gukpt/event in the future) so is this stupid or the smart move?

Cambo must stay!!  Banned for speaking the truth imo

Free the Glasgow 3!!

To post something relevant to the thread, Keith....will you be betting on the NBA when it starts back and have you regularly bet on the NBA before?  If so what type of bets do you find are most profitable?  IMO the NBA is excellent for betting on if you understand the game and are good at finding good bets etc.

he knows i'm just fucking with him

28 pages in the end, wow.

What was the final tally Keith?

lol ok then Greek tits

can we just keep this going plz

Superb thread!

Another one next weekend?

 ;topman;

Sick sick thread

Loved every bit of it.

More please

 ;thankyou;

Awwwww cheers mate, means so much to me.

Ok to be fair, some posts were better than others

great thread keith.  TY for doing this.

any update on final totals for the weekend?

Thanks for the nice comments, doubt I'll do it again, too much like hard work. The hours from 2 - 3pm on Saturday and 5 - 6pm on a Sunday are so hectic anyways, updating a thread on top of everything else was just too much.

Enjoyed it though.

Will update the final figure later (on a train to London for the WHU and the wifi is very spotty.)

Hi Keith. Completely missed this but caught up on the thread when I got home last night.

Great read. Gl at the HU, dont beat Stu Rutter tho ta.  :)up

Really good thread Keith. Makes me think you should get back to the blog!

My dad is in his 60s and hasn't a clue about the internet but he loves a punt on the horses and football. I'm going to print off the edited highlights of this for him to read.

I liked this thread Keith, n1.

I think we should all take it in turns a week at a time doing this. I vote Scottish Dave for this weekend..

could be a short one

"went in the betting shop to put on my friday nights action and some footy bets i'd already sorted for saturday but wound up doing the lot in the roulette machine"

I don't play roulette machines, seen mates lose fortunes on them! There is no edge.

I might actually do a diary in two weeks time, im working this weekend, then away to Perth the following weekend.

See, Dave f*ck the doubters, I mean your off to Australia for a weekend, you balla muthafooker, he's golden this boy...

not that balla i heard he is going ryanair and the airport is a 12 hour drive from perth

Camel, what % of your income is from Poker & what % from sports betting?

Which gives you the most satisfaction? 

Are you betting more and more sports as Poker is increasing difficult?

Over the long run poker has been kinder to me than sports betting.

But far more variance in poker and if it wasn't for the deep runs in wsop main event last year and wsope this year, sports would have been better.

I think overall I get more enjoyment from sports betting, but the feeling of going really deep in a major poker tournament (£1 million to the winner or so) just can't be beaten.

One day it would be nice to actually win one of the feckers...

Perth, Scotland FTW

Its only a couple of hours up from Glasgow, im working up there from Sat till monday.

then why are you flying ryanair?

PMSL.

who said i was flying?

Couldn't back Hull at current prices given what seems to be going on behind scenes there.  My intial price was Evens Burnley but now make them 1.85 with Hull 4.75....I think the Evens will go

was ther ever a final tally?

This was a great thread, def think others should do one also. I would myself but am not really that well known on here, perhaps once im over a 100 posts or something. I actually do a great deal of small bets at the weekend too, much more enjoyable than one or two huge bets and less volatile imo too. Be interested to know keith's final tally, im thinking he'd probably be up a couple of k, tho he seemed to get very unlucky with some nfl bets near the end of the thread.

Do one Dom, probably most on here will be able to relate to yours more than they would to Keith's.

Having said that hope Keith does another one.

Just realised who u r! Why Nico29?

Hi cos. Yeah Nico was my poker nic for years, 29 my age when openedthis  ac. I mean nic is the end of my name right and o is an o! lol
Running good?

lol, sick rub down  :D :D :D :D :D

lol, intentions of a mad spin up the other day, ended up a mad spin down. nothing im not used to!

Been busy doing my money at the Vic, will work out the final tally on the train home tomorrow if the wifi works..

Yeh do one. I probably will when i have a free weekend infront of the sport. They'll make interesting reading.

Go for it Dom imo, these things are always good value.

Camel just read this thread all the way through. Brilliant reading, thanks for the insight into the mind of a professional sports bettor. PLEASE do another one!

Thanks!

Said I was going to do another one sometime soon, when I've got a clear weekend.

Might let people invest too, if they want a financial interest.

I'm stuck in a hotel in Lutterworth with iPad and no lappy, no poker. Just read this, absolutely fab read Keith...please do another and love to invest too!

Please and YES PLEASE