blonde poker forum

Anyone else think Barnsley are 2 big at 8.0 tonight?

Yep, my pony is on.

Go on you Tykes  ;cheerleader;

Waiting to see teams tonight before maybe getting involved.

Ive had a tilt huge bet tonight: -

Barnsley v Manure to finish 0:0, 0:1, 0:2 or 1:2

Pompey vs Stoke to finish 0:0, 0:1 or 1:2

Sunderland vs Villa to finish 1:0, 0:1 or 1:1

Spurs vs Everton to finish 1:0, 2:0, 2:1 or 0:1

4 way all combo's

Tuesday night Treble:

1/ Barnsley v Man Utd  (Backing  Man Utd @ 1.45)
2/ St Johnstone v Dundee Utd  (Backing  Dundee Utd @ 2.34)
3/ Blackburn  v Peterborough (Backing  Blackburn @ 1.63)

£20 on
£112 Return

Blimey   ::)

Barnsley, Peterborough and St Johnstone ldo.

meh, asked for £200 on Blackburn @ 1.96 last night on betfair before i went to bed. I thought the market had hugely over reacted to this swine flu rumour and the price was 1.93 and with the bookies was 19/20 so fancied my chances.

I woke up and they had come in to 1.77 tho, redic, now theyr 1.68 so i cant back at that price.

I think Villa and Stoke could win and could be value, will wait for line ups tho and re post.

stoke, villa and eveton, 3 doubles and a treble.

Leeds, Blackburn and rangers Treble

Stoke and Villa Double

Owen to score first for man u

backed a couple of the greyhound naps from the other thread aswel!

The way celtic and rangers are playing ill happily oppose them if a good price pops up

Dundee have just touched 8.0 to beat rangers, can't possibly pass that up

£5 on Dundee @ 8.0

trying to get on dundee utd at 2.48 might have to take 2.46

dont like betting on the mickey mouse cup but think utd will fancy there chances

of winning some silverwear this year so will be up for it

Laid Man U, Laid Blackburn,

singles

Your on the wrong Dundee!

Just seen the lines ups in the Sunderland v Villa game.

gordon, da silva, mccartney, turner, noswrothy, murphy, henderson, cana, richardson, campbell, jones

guzan, dunne, collins, cuellar, warnock, young, milner, petrov, reo coker, agbon, heskey

looks like a get your mortgage on Villa type scenario.

nah 2.48 for utd is great price
waiting for dundee to drift alot more before i go anywhere near them

Yes i agree re Utd, but i still think Dundee is good @ 8.0

so both teams in the match are good value?

Man Utd, Villa, Spurs and Leeds for me.

lol Dundee and Dundee Utd are playing Different teams you tit

Utd playing St Johnstone
Dundee Playing Rangers

C'mon the Dees!

Ive backed Villa and Scum to win 2-0 or 3-0. I cant see Barnsley goals tbh, esp without Hume & Campbell Ryce.

Thats it for me, Stoke were close to a bet, but just a little bit short in defensive areas.

lol fucking ironside

I've backed Villa and layed the bookings at 5 points and under on the Barnsley game.

Stuck £15 on Villa @ 2.82

Dundee have come in to 6.6! From me backing them @ 8.0, 10 mins ago!

Double on Man U -1 and Villa

Small treble on Villa,
                     Pompey Vs Stoke - Draw
                     Spurs Vs Everton - Draw


And bit on 2-0 Man U



Hopefully Barnsley win though, wil be com.

Man Utd 1-0
Blackburn 1-0

dundee 1 teds 1

dundee denied stonewall penalty

2 Bets tonight

Griffiths 10/3 anytime
Scored with a free kick
Man U
R.Madrid
Leeds DNB

Treble

Sorry for the aftertiming had to make the misses Tea

Making up for your weekend losses?

No wonder your everyone's Pet on here.

Just like your my pet in real life, ya ***** Muscle!

You better have bet Dundee tonight ya dick?

Was going to get involved in the dnb market, 9/2.I'm sure they were 11/2 last night but just bet a good few quid on Griff and the the treble

good goal from Owen then, 2-0 Man U.

Villa goal plz!

Get out Neville, your off!

MARCHING ON TOGETHER.

tonights football is a mess why didnt i leave the cup games alone

Dundee Utd are 2-0 down, so coupon fucked!

all i have left is the villa bet above ^^^^^^

blimey 3-0 Leeds ... mbn.

nice dodge!

this sure didnt put me off getting on Pompey.

0-0 gg nh wp

FML

Good Night!!!

2134: Ben Foster is about to take a goalkick for Manchester United when two Barnsley fans run onto the pitch, nick the ball and stick it away. "Why doesn't it count?" asks Mark Robins. Hilarious. Although not really.



LOL

wtf, Real are 3-0 down away at a lower legue side in the Copa Del Rey.

They were like 1/3. whats going on.

wiiiiiiiiiiiiii, Leeds 4-0, TRESSSOR KANDOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

I lost on Villa, but binked on my Scum to win 2-0, not bad.

ffs dave followed you on dundee utd

It's a very strong Madrid side, should be 5-2 to the Home side.
Drenthe, Guti and Raul are a disgrace.

NO I BLOODY DIDNT

2204: BREAKING NEWS Newcastle appoint Chris Hughton as manager on an 18-month contract. The club is no longer for sale.

lol. that's the 3rd time he's got the job in about a year

fyp

We sure aren't still a joke.

Madrid... what on earth! they were the last team I expected to be screwing me over. They were shocking. FU Galacticos!!

Wednesday Wonder Coupon:

5 homes

1/ Arsenal    @ 10/11
2/ Chelsea    @ 2/7
3/ Celtic    @ 4/11
4/ Bologna    @ 11/8
5/ Udinese    @ 5/4

£10 on
£180 Return ....... I Hope

Don't you love it when a 4/11 shot does your coupon!

Especially when its your own team, this comes on the back of a post a made only days ago telling how i would happily oppose Celtic and Rangers these days as they are rotten!

[ ] I listen to my own advice

i fancied hearts @ 9.2 pre kick off and sort of talked myself out of it with the help of a betting legend ffs.

never bet on games involving your own team is the only rule i try not to break

Who is your team Iron?

scotland its aberdeen and my lower team is lossiemouth (highland league)
england its southampton and my lower league team is scunthorpe (but they have reversed postions) and i like welling after managering them to CM glory about 14-15 years ago

gtfo, why have you never mentioned that? my respect for you has gone through the roof now. welling are possibly the greatest

Yeah for some reason Aberdeen have always been my Scottish team - great side in the 80's.

Thursday's Thriller Coupon:

1/ FC Copenhagen    @ 1/2
2/ Young Boys    @ 7/10
3/ Inter Milan    @ 4/9
4/ Villarreal    @ 3/5
5/ QPR    @ 17/20 ................ Friday Night Game!

9.90/1

£10 on
Returns £109.02

How many games have Leicester lost in the league this year Dave

Don't think QPR are great value odds-on, favourites possibly but its not great value

They have lost 2 games this season, whereas QPR haven't lost a game at home this season, 3, 3, 0, scored 16 conceeded 6.

I don't mind if there isn't any value, im backing the team i think will win, can't grumble about value when there are only 3 games tomorrow night.

"I don't mind if there isn't any value i'm backing the team i think will win"

This will be why you don't win money. I know it's been said a thousand times but once more can't hurt, value is the one and only consideration in succesful betting.

1 if its not the right price its a bad bet

2 only 3 games, you don't have to have a bet!

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

If Barcelona were playing My local pub team and my pub team were priced @ 1000/1, but you priced it up as 500/1, would you them go and bet my Pub team @ 1000/1?

If your only looking at value them yes you'd back it, however there is no way in the world you will win this bet, therefore Value isn't the only consideration.

no it isn't. it's an indisputable mathematical FACT

so even if you knew that team were NOT going to win, you'd still place money on them?

How can you not understand this Dave? It's very simple stuff. If something has a better chance of wiining than the price that is available you bet on it if doesn't you don't.

if I knew a team would not win then I would be incorrect to price them at 500/1 as in your example. so no I wouldn't bet on them

Just trying to help, Dave

You say If your only looking at value them yes you'd back it, however there is no way in the world you will win this bet, therefore Value isn't the only consideration.

So in fact you are not pricing up the pub team at 500-1, you are pricing them up at any price you want to one as "there is no way in the world you will win this bet" so your example is flawed.

To take another example, you are backing Inter Milan at 4-9. Ok so they are odds on, and likely to win you think. We'll agree on that. However I'd say the price reflects what everyone knows. I'd rather be the bookie taking the money off you than the punter putting the money on, in perfectly priced markets like these short odds on shots

...when you consider you are backing five odds on shots, the value has to be in the bookie's favour because you are not being at all contrarian. A lot of the guys on here are trying to find value...ie an underdog that they think is mispriced, not a stone cold certainty where it is in the price already because no bookie will offer value above a short price.

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

I understand value, i always have, even though you's guys keep trying to explain it.

I couldn't give a fuck if a team is priced up as 20/1 and should be 15/1 or 12/1, at the end of the day they are still complete outsiders in the match, no matter if they are 12/1, 15/1 or 20/1.

Id rather bet the team that had more chance of WINNING than i complete outsider that has very little chance of winning.

Its as simple as that.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

never knew you was a welling fan or i might have mentioned it

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

which is why Bookies make money Dave, because upsets happen more often than the punters odds on sure things, where it is all in the price

Most successful punters I know are ruthless in finding value and treat it as a long term game. If something is 20-1 and they think its a 16-1 shot, make the same bet over 16 such identifiable bets and they come out ahead, assuming they identy correctly.

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so 4-9 is a good price then

so com dave, so so com.

so you are now pricing the game at 20.0 fullham 1.05 liverpoll name your own price on the draw

ok that way you are getting vallue on liverpool if they are 1.10 or better then get your money on

trigg dave has priced the value at 20.0 i would wait before you place that bet

Thats the difference, i don't treat it as a long term thing, i want to win the bet i place at that time, i don't look at betting the same bet 16 times and winning one of them at 20/1 to make a 4 x stake profit. That would take far to much time and energy, i be to win that night only.

If liverpool are 4/9, i would back them.

i didn't price any value at all mate, all im saying is, id bet liverpool EVERY time, no matter what the price was

thought you said they would 95 out of a 100 at 4/9 you only think they will win about 69 times out of 100

Absolutely, you should back them into 1-20 to get the value.

so if i offered you 1000-1 on fulham and 1.01 on liverpool you would back liverpool?

I didn't choose 4/9 mate you did.

fml what the heck am i doing
i cant win a coin flip yet i am trying to ecplain
why daves bookie loves him coming through the door
and even loves him getting a coupon up

you said it "if they are less than 4-9 you'd leave the game"...ergo, that's your idea of a fair price.

not at all, anything below 1/2 and you don't get much back for your £5, so whats the point betting it?

i never mention any prices untill i asked you how often you would expect fulham to win

No, as i said before, i wouldn't touch that as id only be placing a £5 or so, and wouldn't see much return, so id leave this game out, i try to stick to anywhere between 4/7's and 6/4

I grew up 2 1/2 miles from park view road. the clubhouse was where I started drinking as they'd serve us when we were young plus all the girls we hung around with at the time were welling fans so we'd go with them trying to get a leg over after. was there for all the big cup runs in the 80s, good times

Good luck with the bet. Except the QPR bit, lol!

the point would be printing money on something in your favour

so you would turn down 1000-1 if i offered you it on fulham winning?

lol no the reason id leave them at that price is cos £5 on this would only return £7.22, so its not worth it to me

ps trigg no i am not offtering it to you as i want to keep my hand

Yes, i don't think they will win so i wouldn't throw my money away on them

soon mounts up if you have them in a 8 part bet

I've been repeatedly changing my mind the last couple of weeks as to whether dave's on a giant level, I am now 100% sure he is

i tried this last night with 1/3 shots and 4/11 shots, and the 4/11 shot fucked me, therefore from now on im sticking to between 4/7 and 6/4, i usually have a figure in mind of how much i want to win, usually around £100 to £150, so ill just pick as many team at between 4/7 and 6/4 till it adds up to that return, its usually 5 or 6 teams

what the fuck does 'on a level' mean anyway?

If im on a level, does this mean im taking the piss?

There's no question you have to be on a wind up. It's literally impossible to misunderstand how to bet succesfully this much.

Success with a Bet is all down to luck on the day, i mean look my my coupon last night, 99 times out of 100 it would have came up, but alas my 4/11 shot lost 1-0 last night.

Just out of interest, you said you made a fortune from work, what line of business are you in?

Design Engineer.

man i was offering 100-1 that you was a bookie

He is deffo levelling and tbf doing a pretty good job of it, wp Dave wp.

Can someone tell me what the fuck Levelling means?

I have only ever told the truth on this thread, why the fuck is backing the fav team to win a bad idea?

level means taking the piss in wegie

ok you have 72o in bb the blindes are 400/800 with a 50 ante
10 players at table everyone fold to sb who puts his stack in and its another 25 for you to call
do you call the 25 to win 1750?

depends on my stack, if i have enough ill call, if i don't i wont

Lol Iron why are you bothering, Dave knows exactly what levelling is. The only other explanation is that is Dave is extremely dumb, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Only people who are levelling go on about not knowing what levelling is.

Not sure this was value - Sonderjylland 5 FC Copenhagen 0

I swear on my new born twins lives, i honestly didn't know what Level meant, it must be an english term, cos ive never heard it up here.

And again, im not levelling, surely the people that say betting against a fav team to win is levelling.

I bet to win, therefore im going to back the team that has most chance of winning.

Fuck the value, bet the Fav FFS

What the fuck was this result all about, Copenhagen's form is 4,1,1 away from home and they go and lose 5-0 @ 1/2!!! WTF

How much research did you do into these games - do you have any idea how much the top teams value the cup!!!

Yes, i checked the teams before the bet, they had an almost full strength team out, hence the 1/2 away from home.

dave is my hero if he's been levelling
dave is my hero if he's not been levelling.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8330334.stm


Liking 7-2 Fulham a fair bit I must admit.

Excellent performance by Leicester.

I did have a little bet on them, but only for interest purposes and knew they were very difficult to beat, but really good tonight esp the midfield.

Wonderful stuff, really thrilled.

Yeah, the midfield were excellent tonight. We are always solid at the back, and the front 2 were superb.

nh dave

I wasn't playing poker?

cant spend value in the shop....   ;whistle;