blonde poker forum

Spread Firms are offering large incentives at the moment for new customers, so I am going to explain spread trading for those that don't know much about it and then update this thread with my bet of the day each day for a while and see what happens.  For anyone that fancies a very heavily subsidised punt, read on, but I will explain the risks first for those that don't totally understand it:


A traditional bet on the horses might involve you putting £10 on a horse in Ladbrokes.  You know your maximum outlay and your potential profit.  Spread trading doesn't just require you to be right; it pays out on a scale according to how right you are.  Depending on the market, your £10 stake might actually be putting £1000 in play, so you really need to make sure you understand your worst possible outcome and tailor your stakes accordingly.
I will give an example using NH Racing match bets, as this will be the normal selections I will be making ITT.

Ladbrokes might price a match up 8/13 Horse A and 11/10 Horse B or something   ::) )and if your selection beats the other selection you win - regardless of if they are first and second, or second from last and last, no other horse matters.

As a spread, it might be quoted as Horse A v Horse B 1-2.5

The spread firms use the above notation (quoted in lengths with a maximum makeup of 15 lengths) and allow you to choose your horse and stake.  If you like Horse A, you "Buy" @ 2.5 (you spot the other horse a 2.5 length start) and nominate a stake (will use £1 for easy maths)  If you like Horse B here, you "sell" at 1 and your horse receives a 1 length start.

The maximum make-up (result) is +/- 15 lengths, so here are the settlements for various outcomes:

1. Horse A comes under orders and refused to race, Horse B finishes last.  
Even though Horse B won this match by about 3 miles, the maximum makeup is 15 lengths, so all those who bought the spread now owe £17.50 and all those who sold the spread now win £16 as the spread is settled at -15.

2. Horse A wins the race and Horse B falls
As above, all those who bought the spread make £12.50 and all those who sold it lose £14 as the settlement is +15.

3. They both fail to finish.
Spread is voided.

4. A came 4th 10 lengths clear of B.
I will let you do the maths...


You don't have to, you can trade football, or whatever you feel like.  Understand though that markets can be highly volatile, so always calculate your worst possible result before getting involved.  I like the NH match bets, I think the spread firms quite often make careless ricks in the markets.  I may be underestimating the skill of the respective trading desks, but many of the spreads quoted seem to be derived solely from the horse odds.  In the world of NH racing, some horses haven't raced for 300+ days and are unfit, others have to carry around 12st in a 4 mile mudbath, some horses are suspect jumpers, don't like the course/conditions/distance etc etc.  I'm not going to declare my complete strategy, butI think this gives great opportunities in a match bet where although both horses might be 8/1 shots to win, one horse most definitely isn't even money against the other to cross the line first.  So I will put up my nap of the day for a while to a £1 stake and see how badly I get filled in for a week or two.  Edit:  It is a £2 stake now as that is the minimum stake to qualify for the promotions.


Oh yes, nearly forgot ;)  Depending on spread firm, there are a variety of incentives for new account holders, and usually a bigger incentive to me.  If anyone wants to open an account and take what amounts to being a +EV punt, let me know.  For example, one firm are offering a free £300 bet after you have put £100 at risk.  My contact details are in my profile or PM.  I will happily chop whatever incentives we both receive.  Please make sure you understand the risks before jumping in.  If unsure, just sit back and laugh whilst I do my cobblers...

 ;popcorn;

Interesting stuff, always wanted to learn about these but never knew where to start.

Whom do you trade with mainly? Is Betfair the best?

Can you see when you place a bet what you maximum loss could be? Or at least can you see a reasonable idea. I presume the bookmaker you are doing it with will not let you make a wager that the money in your account cant handle?

Meh usually you can, not sure 100% but they usually wanna know quite a bit about you , some may even ask to do a credit check.

I opened an account with what was IG index no credit check or anything,i'm presuming thats because i didn't open a credit account though.

[quote

Can you see when you place a bet what you maximum loss could be? Or at least can you see a reasonable idea. I presume the bookmaker you are doing it with will not let you make a wager that the money in your account cant handle?




[/quote]

Depends on what you bet on.

In Simon's example you can because there is a maximum +/- of 15 times the unit stake.

Basically in any event where there is a maximum make up you can work out your liabilities beforehand.

Something like cricket runs though could lose you a fortune because you just don't know how many are going to be scored.

Betfair is not a spread betting firm Mr Shoe, it's a person-to-person betting exchange. Different ball game.
Losses owed to spread betting firms are recoverable by law. It's a risky business on the whole imo.

so lets say i bet on the date of next election on a spread and i think its going to be nearer than the date they set
but in the mean time there is a milatary coup and the next election is a few years down the line
i could be seriously fcked ?

So you can potentially lose more than is in your account?

What is your on going affiliate deal if we go through you? Are you chopping lifetime affiliate earnings? Can we get the same deal elsewhere?

If you have a credit account then yes if not they won't accept the bet if you don't have enough funds to cover your liabilities.

You would almost certainly have to open a deposit account.  Under FSA regs, the spread firm shouldn't even think about offering you a credit account until such times as you can prove your market understanding and have a demonstrable net worth of £X times your credit limit.

The firm shouldn't allow you to trade larger than your funds on deposit will cover, but occasionally will let a small liability through on top, or some bad shit happens and there is an amended result.

Spreadex, IG, Sporting Index are the sort of firms dabbling in these markets.


They will normally put a cap on it (known as a stop-loss, or a maximum makeup, let's say of a 100 days maximum, or even both)  and then you can work out how potentially volatile your bet is and what your maximum exposure is.

As above, yes, but it isn't completely unpredictable once you understand what your ultimate liability is.

No this is one-off stuff.  You get a free bet, I get a bigger free bet, I will chop both bets with you.  You can open any account you like with any company without me, but obv we both don't get a free bet, and that's it.

Day 1:

What a shit day's racing to kick off with.

3:20 Plumpton Its A Classic/Quartz Du Montceau 1-2.5

My selection for the day is to BUY Its a Classic Over Quartz Du Montceau for £2 a length @ 2.5

For the Degens

2:50 Plumpton, where there is a match between Stormhoek and Quartano.  At the moment, it is being quoted as "-0.75 your choice" but I am expecting this market to move, something like 0-1.5 Quartano over Stormhoek.  If it moves this way or further, I may be interested in taking Stormhoek.

Jeez that was quick, lo and behold the market moved to 0.5-2 so Bet 2 for the day is to SELL Quartano over Stormhoek at 0.5 for £2 a length.

For those still getting used to the terminology, match spreads are always quoted as fav OVER underdog.  If you fancy the underdog, you are selling the performance of the fav, relative to the underdog.  So in this bet, I have Stormhoek and a half length spot.

Even though It's A classic won the race, it failed to cover the spread.

So day 1 = £-10

Day 2:

1:30 F  Dusk/Prophete De Guye  -0.75 YR CH.

Fancy this one quite strongly, so I have had a double bet, so for the diary bought Dusk OVER P.D.G at 0.75 for £4

can you just expand a little more on the maximum win/loss for said bet.  And why the fancy on this one please?

Maximum makeup for this bet is +15 (if our horse beats the other horse by 15 lengths or more) and worse result is -15 (for the opposite result)

I had to pay 3/4 of a length to get this bet, my horse won the race and the horse I opposed (the fav) fell at the first.  Always nice.  Hence the bet settled at +15, which gives a profit of 14.25 * our £4 stake =£57 profit.  Had it been the other way round, I would have lost 15.75 * £4 = £63. 

As for why the fancy, I did say I wouldn't divulge everything about what I am looking for, but I did watch Dusk win last week and thought he was thrown in for this off a featherweight.  I generally like opposing favs, particularly ones that have to carry a massive weight, and particularly those with a propensity to fall over.  Had I been super shrewd, I may have been given 3/4 of a legth head start, rather than having to pay 3/4 of a length, so I didn't max the value out of this bet, I read the market wrong and got a worse price.  I also wasn't impressed with Dusk's jumping in the race, but when your opponent falls at the first, it isn't much of a sweat, you just need to have your horse cross the finish line to collect.

Running Total: +£47

Day 3:

2:10 Market Rasen  Nirvana Swing / Hockenheim 0 - 1.5

I have bought Nirvana Swing OVER Hockenheim @ 1.5 for £2

At first glance I thought it was going to be another bad day's racing.  It probably is from a pureist's point of view, but quite a few bet possibilities today with some interesting match-ups between horses that are problematic jumpers, returning from long lay-offs etc.  My bet is an example of that, Nirvana Swing should easily get the trip and is fairly weighted, it might not win the race of this mark, but it only has to give a pound away to Hockenheim who has had 248 days off and was an uncertain jumper to put it mildly last year.

I have only looked at the Market Rasen Card, I am now going to have a quick scan of Clonmel, but I rarely get involved in Irish racing unless something sticks out by a mile.

Had a Sporting Index account for ages......but hardly used it in years. There's a few quid in there so , happy to follow your fancies for a bit of fun!

 ;goodluck; ;goodluck; ;goodluck;

Nirvana Swing won, but the other horse came second, after a mix of tidy jumping and several expected mistakes, one of which I was hoping would leave it riderless.

Anyway, +£6 on the bet.

Running total +£53

I've been asked a few questions which I may as well answer on here, apologies for any para-phrasing:

1. What if I still don't understand it?
Best thing to do would be to leave well alone.

2.  Do I have to take your selections?
No, in fact the opposite is true.  The Ts and Cs of the promotion forbids organisation of bets from a common source.  I am merely putting up some tips for a bit of interest and to show examples of the P&L you might have en route to your free bet.  Closer scrutiny on the promotion suggests you would be better off choosing football supremacy bets as the minimum stake/risk associated with this bet is lower.  However, I am total crap at betting on football and will be sticking to NH racing.

3.  How much do you (I) really make from me?
There is no affiliate scheme, I literally get out of it the free bet I declared in OP.  I won't have access to your account nor make "rakeback equivalent" or anything else from it on an ongoing basis.

4.  What if neither horse wins?
It doesn't matter.  It is as if the race only consisted of these 2 horses.  Everything else can finish in front, inbetween or behind the named horses.  I like it because it means you only have to consider the 2 horses in the match and not have to study everything else in the race to work out what else might have a chance.

Lets say you give me X amount to creat an account on one of these, i make a bet with 100 quid risk but this wont happen i play safe and hedge my loses. I give you back the said amount and we freeroll with the free bets we both get?

Legal or not?

It probably isn't illegal, but it certainly is against the rules of the promotion.  Further, you can't play safe and hedge your losses, to qualify for the promotion your bet must have a genuine risk of £20 for each of 5 seperate bets. 

Under the promotion, you have several choices of free bet you can take, one of which is £100 cashback.  So, if your qualifying bets led to a profit or manageable loss, you could take a freeroll with a nice sized bet.  If all your qualifying bets turned to custard and you were £100 down, you could scramble out of it by taking the $100 cash back offer.

I'm not looking to anything outside of the spirit of the promotion, I think it is a +EV shot to take for anyone.  If the spread companies are happy to throw money at a promotion like this in the pursuit of new business, that's fair enough.

sounds fair do's. Let me get home from work and see which one i have an account with. I recall only having one spread betting account that I have not used for ages.

Day 4:

1:30 Wincanton Baseball Ted / Digital Media 0.25 - 1.75

I have SOLD this spread (I want Digital Media to finish first) at 0.25 for £2 a length.  iOW I receive a 1/4 length spot.

Also in the 3:00 Wincanton  Classic Clover / Tarquinius 0 - 1.5

I have BOUGHT this spread at 1.5 for £2 a length.  A slight concern over why Tizzard wants to ride Triggernometry instead, but I keep getting drawn back to the race, so I am on.

 just seen this and..... now 2.5 -4, so I'll leave it.

Good idea!

I was robbed in the first match.  Correct to oppose Baseball Ted, his race was over very early doors, but then mine couldn't be bothered to finish when beaten 2 out, but under no distress to get round, the jockey cba.  Bet was void as neither got round.

2nd match I got wrong, settled -15 for a loss of £33

Running total +£20

Day 5:

1:15 Kelso  Charingworth / Fabalu 2.25 - 3.75

I have bought Charingworth over Fabalu for £2 a length @ 3.75.

As a general rule I try and find betting ricks where I can take my choice of horse AND receive lengths head start.  3.75 is about as much as I ever like to pay; my maximum upside now is (15-3.75)=11.25 lengths whereas my maximum downside is (15+3.75) = 18.75 lengths.  I am generally looking to take on bets where it is the other way round, but I like Charingworth here, so I am on.

There are a few other interesting matches today, most of which I have marked up for 'should move a length in my favour' before the off.

[  ] gg fell at teh first FML.

Bet settles at -15, which means -£37.50

Running total -£17.50

fyp

Good luck with this Simon... not sure if you remember I put a thread up asking about the spreads earlier in the year - Took your advice and stuck to the racing match bets - A friend and I did it as joint venture for bit of fun really - ran it from Royal Ascot - Champions day on the flat and did pretty well doubling our initial roll - we only bet on saturdays or summer festivals midweek and never dropped below what we started off with

We thought the jumps would be much more swingy with potential for fallers and softer ground so we having a break to reasses - planning on sparking it back up again though... Considering the all weather aswell, as plenty of potential to find dodgepots.

All the best

Cheers, good to hear you made some money.  I think a lot of flat races are unpuntable.  Having to pay a 1 length spread for a 5F sprint where you can throw a blanket over the first 5 finishers is hard to beat imo.

The jumps are swingy, daft things happen, but with a little bit of luck I think it is easier to cover the spread, particularly taking on suspect horses.  Bad things do happen, horses get brought down, easy winners ease down and let the other horse get within a couple of lengths when they should have been beaten by a distance etc.  And like the other day, horses pull up with no chance of winning, even though they were going to win my bet for me just by getting round last.

Yeah we soon learnt that the sprints were a none starter - apart from certain cases like the Ayr GC meeting, where there was a ridic draw bias.. .we tend to concentrate on 1m2f + (staying races were particularly good to us)... like you say much easiier to beat the spread, and potential for wider margin wins... we def going to have a go at the jumps and think it could be really profitable, just getting our strat sorted ;)

While not so good for spread betting, for the reasons already mentioned, jumps racing is far easier to read the form and pick winners compared to flat racing imo

12:55 Ascot River ripples / Pure Genius 0.75 your choice

I have bought river ripples over pure genius at 0.75 for £2

Saturday, so gonna be millions of bets today.....

Pure Genius pulled up pretty quickly, so a £28.50 winner

I also had a decent each way wedge freerolling on Skipper's Lad which was pretty unlucky not to land but whatever.

Running Total +£11

OK, I think you guys get the idea.  Whether you choose racing match bets or football supremacy bets, with a little bit of dicipline it is easy enough to keep things small-ball.  The free bet you get is pretty chunky, (e.g. a £200 total goals bet) so whether you happen to win £11 or lose £11 in order to qualify is fairly unimportant.