blonde poker forum

Wolverhampton 19.20

ROBUST WISH

This is my only bet of the day.
Last time out lost to a Godolphin fav Dahaam half length
Time before lost to Henry Cecil fav Kings Bayonet one length

Managed to get 7/4 skinny price i know but feel its worth a punt, would of really liked 5/2 so i could E/W.

Got no info on this one, so side with caution, small stakes only.

Good Luck

wish I'd seen this sooner given your record so far. into 11/10 now

gatso

Please side with caution really wanted e/w

See the cumani and haggas horses as dangers.

wasn't planning on going near it at that price

The market sided with us at the off.

Nice one. Got yourself a good record here!

:D

matt

5/2 ew returns 1.5, its an hedge against going broke

Believe me bookies hate those bets

You're not wrong.

so backing a horse so that if it doesnt win you make a loss and they make a profit - bookies would hate those bets how?

For a start there is a huge difference between backing a horse, and backing a horse professionally.

Myself, i expect my runner to win, if it comes second or third at 5/2 i get 50% of my win stake back.

If your not doing it for a living matt you wont like it.

I could sit here for hours talking about hedging but i dont have the time.

Next time you back a horse go 30% win 70% place even better.

Bookies want you to lose the full amount..not for you to get 50% of your stake back. If you bet for larger amounts there is definitely something to be said for this way of betting. I know loads of successful people that do.

Mr Pat Ronise

I am obviously upsetting one or two of the board users, so i will not post anymore Got To Win bets.

The only reason i started was to try and put another angle on it for the more serious punter.

Unfound criticism was the result.

Good Luck To You All

lets not get hasty typhoon, keep em coming!

The last thing we want is to lose decent tipsters from the forum. Some people are always going to disagree with your methods, thats life. This is the first tip i've managed to get on but have seen you've had 2 out of 2 previously so it's obvious to all you are doing something right.

Boo hoo. I didn't say what you were saying wasn't right, was just the way it came across.

norrrr. don't stop typhoon, you're on your way to becoming a tipping legend. I just need to see one in time to get on

I have been giving a lot of thought to the wisdom of backing a 5/2 shot each way after seeing this thread. IMO it seems a good move in the long term if your information is reliable and your stakes are big enough. It's not for a recreational punter like myself but I can definitely see why someone who makes their living this way would do it.   

max

There is a massive gap between recreational punting and making a living from it.

5/2 e/w when you have very reliable info has to be taken, this is not an exact science and your sure thing can still get beaten, hence if its second or third you don't lose all your win bet.

30/70 is the best edge, bookies will not take this bet and never will, thank god for exchanges.

Like you said, small stake punting does not seem sexy with my ideas.

Good Luck

Ive heard a lot of serious backers like to back ew at short odds, i
have never been able to see how this works in your favour
mathematically,

if you have 10.x £100 ew bets ,the win part of the bet is separate,
you are gambling £1000. separately on place bets
if every horse you back is 5/2.placed odds 1/5th. every race you either
pick up £150.when a selection is placed or loose £100

if 6 out of 10 of your selections are placed you have picked up £900,
cost of bets £1000.so you loose £100
to show a profit of £50 risking £1000 you have to have 7 out of 10
selections placed,7x£150.
7 out of 10 selections winning is a excellent strike rate yet the
profit for this is £50.,
maybe i am looking at this wrong but as i say i cant understand how
this is a good bet mathermatically.

There was a discussion going on in the Outlook about this the past few weeks. (shorter letter in about it today). They were only discussing 3-1+ but the same holds. some people love it and some hate it (including big gamblers)

would of liked to have read the discussion Boldie, i imagine a few punters may view the ew  bet as insurance but they are 2 seperate bets and extra risk
i sometimes have a win bet and make the place only bet on betfair a lot bigger.

yeah, there are essentially two camps in this and it all depends on how you prefer to bet. The discussion in Outlook was actually about betting EW @ 3-1 or bigger.
This way of betting obviously doesn't work for all races but mainly for races in which only 2, or 3 max, horses can be given a chance (in your opinion).

If you can only see two horses getting involved and your horse is a 5-2 shot (and say the other one is the favourite of odds lower than 6-4) you can bet £100 EW on your 5-2 shot. This way you know that, in your worst case scenario, you only lose £50 but stand to gain £300 if your horse wins (£250 win and £50 for the place). In your mind (And this is important..it is only in your mind) you are therefore risking £50 to win £300. This gives you odds of 6-1.

Obviously if you're completely wrong you'll lose £200 so actually you are accepting 6-4 on your 5-2 shot.

In the camp that disagree with this way of betting (and many people do) some people say that you're not getting 5-2 and are therefore not smart about doing it this way. You should bet more selectively and thereby back more winners. But people that like it will point to variance and will say that their variance is lower.

There are also people that prefer to hedge the bet by playing a forecast in which the favourite beats your horse into second. (After all; you're assuming it's a two horse race)
Assuming the favourite is even money and your horse is indeed 5-2+ you're likely to get around 2-1 on the forecast. This means that you only have to place a £50 forecast on that outcome to get all your money back. It also means you risk £50 less. and you actually get better than 6-4 on your win bet that way.

Personally I'm not a big fan of doing it either of the above ways (Although I can see the RV forecast point and have done that in the past)
It all depends on the way you bet and the type of gambler you are though. I know people that do this very successfully, it works for them so I can't knock them for it, you know.

yeah i can see why some punters like the bet, i wonder if any people who have been betting like this kept any records, how much they have staked and won or lost betting ew on say 100 horses at short prices, then work out how much they would of won or lost just betting to win on the same horses,

I have backed 6/4 shots ew in my time.

Let's say you have an 8 runner race where they bet:

1/2
5/2
8/1
33/1
33/1
33/1
100/1
100/1

That's a pretty fair book of 116% and the bookies will make a nice profit on bets

But the place book is horrible:

1/10
1/2
8/5
33/5
33/5
33/5
20/1
20/1

227%. The bookies will lose a fortune paying out 300% of a 227% book.

You are getting 1/2 about the 5/2 getting placed and the true mathmatical chance (if the odds are roughly correct) is probably 1/5.

If you get 1/2 about 1/5 shots for the rest of your life you will be very very rich.

That is a very good explanation. The industry refers to them as "bad each ways" and it's one of the few times that the edge is with the punter, however do not expect to get much on when tackling these types of races.

I understand what you mean about value Camel, it does depend how you look at this Mathematically,
at the end of the day 7 out of 10 winning selections at 5/2 ew risking £1000 to win £50 doesn't look a decent bet to me,
10 out of 10 winning selections wins £500 risking £1000, but that's what gamblings all about, different opinions,

I'm not sure what you mean.

If you don't like risking too much, lay the win portion of the bet on betfair and just have a huge value bet.

10 out of 10 winning selections? Where did you get them from then?

Bad EW betting is a long term winning play (if you can get on) it is mathmatically proven.

Summer jumping is a particularly good time for this type of bet when it is possible to find multiple bets in one day.

its not the stakes. its wheather it shows a bigger profit over a lot of bets compared to just backing the same horses to win.

It will without any doubt return long term winnings.
 
Not sure what you mean when you say the "the same horses" though.

If you could check the the result of every horse you have backed ew at 5/2, work out how much you have staked and returns from bets,
work out how much you would of staked and returns from just backing the same horses to win, it would show if it was correct to have backed all the horses ew or just to win.

That wouldn't matter.

It's about ALL the EW bets you have in these type of races. When you have the place % on your side you will make money.

We are not saying back all 5/2 shots you fancy each way.

It all depends the type of race.

Sometimes it is a stupid thing to do, sometimes it is very shrewd.

yeah i understand about picking certain races ,fav 1/2 and your selection looks certain to win or at least be placed,no doubt about it,looks a great bet but i would stilll like to work out if returns are bigger when you do occasionally have an ew bet on short prices over a long period of time rather than just a one off bet.

No need to. It's definitely better to bet each way.

but the way you want to look at it is results orientated. you'll find out if you would've made more money but it won't tell you if it was a good bet

not really its the maths which stops me from backing short prices ew,Camel gave a brilliant way of looking at the maths from a different angle.checking the results over a long period is the only way to prove which is the best bet for that punter. If someone else is making a profit good on them,we all have different ways of gambling ,not saying i am right or wrong but worth looking into a bit more,

There is no need to check the results.

If the price you are taking is bigger than % chance of an event happening, you've got a good bet.

If you are getting 11/10 abouts heads or tails on a coin flip, it's a good bet. You might lose, but it's definitely a good bet. Similarly betting a 5/2 shot each way in the correct races is definitely a good bet.

I didn't have much of a look at the horses today but I just opened the paper and the 1.20 Southwell stood out.

8 runners (so you get paid 3 places 1/5 odds).

Odds in the  post:

8/11 5/2 10 10 20 20 33 50

Backing the 5/2 shot is a great maths each way bet.

nope as manager of a betting shop i was quite happy to take any bet where the payout was less than the original stake - the more of those i got then the more money we make. Granted yes if the horse doesn't win but finished in a place then the punter "would live to fight another day" but i've still made a profit.

If the bet was that big i could even lay some of it off on the nose because if it wins i pay out less by winning some myself, if it places then i have to pay out the punter but still make a profit and if it doesn't place then i'm quids in

as a manager of a bookmakers surely you would love taking every bet that has been priced right as every penny bet is profit in long run

Matt, sorry but you are very wrong.

If I walked into a betting shop and asked for £5000 each way the 5/2 shot in the race above. There is absolutely zero chance the bookmaker would take it.

£200 each way I would have a chance of getting on, £500 each way or more no way.

In the long run the bookmaker is going to lose alot of money laying bets like this.

You want me to prove it? I will start a good each way bets thread with a bank of £1000, I guarantee at the end of the year it will make money.

 ;popcorn;

do you do apprenticeships?  i would like to quit my job and come work for you, clean up and such like and rather than paying me you could just pass on some of your knowledge.  you could even place bets on my accounts for a bit, all of mine are losers so most bookies will take any bet i fancy!!

Me too Camel.

remember i asked first

No worries Soviet,i'm in line.

I think Camel/Typhoon should be in charge of recruitment for betting shops in future then

LOL.

Maybe I might have to make an job vacancy like Horneris.

start a £1000 challenge thread pls camel

i will put £100 into an online bookies and try and match your bets at 10%

Your wish is my command

steeveg

I can see where you are coming from but in my case have to disagree.

I will not be having 10 bets at 5/2 ew

The majority of the time i have a bet i know my horse or dog will be actually trying to win, that's a big advantage.

I have a fair idea its been working well.

I don't just pick a horse or dog i put in some serious homework but i have to say i am not always correct unfortunately.

On Saturday when i said i would of liked 5/2 ew it was all my own work and i wanted an edge on if i was wrong. okay if it had come fourth i would of lost the lot, that's the danger of this industry again unfortunately, but in my own mind and with what figures i had to work with this was a well worth investment thankfully i was correct, now you lumping on the nose and me going ew on that pick, long term i can guarantee i will stay the course longer than yourself, i have my own history to prove that.

Right, looking at your figures if i was backing 10 5/2 shots in a row i would certainly expect some win bets in there as well as some place bets else i would not be here typing this reply now i would be working for someone else, i have been in the self employed speculation game for 32 years so i must be getting something correct (although some were doubting me earlier).

Everyone take note of camel he is giving you some sound advice.

Good luck

I understand and respect what you say Typhoon, i have never argued Camel or anyone else will not make a profit from backing EW at short prices of 5/2 or less, the difference of opinion is over will you win more or loose more if you where to back the same horses to win.
there are a few ways at looking at the maths ,it is not results orientated it is maths,i just cant see how having to get a min of 70% of your selections placed before you show a profit of only 5%. is a good bet, now if the opinion is its insurance and cuts variance, this may be true but still not convinced.if i am wrong fair enough i would love to find a safer way of gambling on horses at short prices.

That depends on if they win or not, i am after 50% of my win stake back if they get beat and i certainly would not expect 7 of them to get beaten at 5/2 or i would not be sat here now. Hedging my win stake is very important to
survival, remember i am not just glancing at the selection and hoping it will win like the average punter.

Maths and results have proved me right so i cant really find a way to debate this with you.

Don't really want to repeat myself but here goes, 30/70 the best hedge against going broke, you don't get rich as quick but you will survive longer. matt674 would not be allowed to take those bets the bookie detests them.

I have understood what you mean from the begining Typhoon i am also going over the same ground,
one important fact which seems to be overlooked is your total stake
backing ew compared to win.its double the stake.double the risk,10 x £100 ew is £2000 staked ,
compared to 10 x£100 win bets £1000 staked,
example , say you get 7 winners 3 unplaced, out of 10
7 winners at  £100 ew 5/2 ew returns 7 x £500= £3500 for a total stake of £2000, profit is £1500
7 winners at  £100 win at 5/2 returns  7x £350 =£2450 for a total stake of £1000 profit is  £1450 ,
you have risked £1000 to win £50,
it doesn't matter if the horses win or place you still have to get 7 horses placed out of 10 to show a 5% profit. to justify doubling your
stake by backing EW. at 5/2 or less ,
 8 out of 10 horses placed is a fantastic strike rate,risk an extra £1000 by backing ew ,profit £200. thats what puts me off.
 now if you can get 1/4 odds like years ago it might work out ok.

steeveg

Thanks for your inquisitiveness this will be my final reply to your inquisiturient questions.

On my bet Saturday night i never at all mentioned profit, just merely trying to safeguard some of my win money if my choice was placed.

You keep rabbiting on about 10 bets at 5/2, who's had 10 bets at 5/2, not me.

Your question had 10 bets at 5/2, i suggest you ask your own question.

WTF - surely that can't be a word?!?!?!

I'm going back 15 years but would take any bet less than £1000 without any questions (was independant bookmaker not high street name) - if bet was between £500-£1000 would be straight on to boss to give him bet and then up to him if he wanted to look at laying it off

anything over £1000 then i used to ring him and it was up to him if he took it or not - i did take big bets occasionally but never people wanting to put a grand each way on a 5/2 shot

Just like poker, the betting game has changed too.

Pricewise was going 15 years ago (I think), but Betfair wasn't.

Value wasn't such a key factor in most punters bets, people tended to back what they thought would win.

Nowadays, punters are much more clued up and bookmakers are much more wary of them.

there was also no such thing as online betting - laying off a bet sometimes meant me having to run half a mile to the william hill up the road :D