blonde poker forum

Long story short raise and reraise preflop then allin on the flop

which hand do you prefer and what are the %s to win and chop each pot for each player

flop    Ad  8h 2c

player 1  Ac  2d 3s 4c 8s Kd

player 2   Ahrt 2h 3d 4d 5c Jc

Dunno but I'm fistpumping both

why is there two 8 of spades in the deck...

Hand 1 is a lot better, Hand 2 your re-draws are crushed also I assume the 8s in hand 1 should be a different spade?

% will take ages but I think its like 32% and 18%

its much closer than 18/32 with the 8h on flop

i like hand 2 but its marginal maybe 1 or 2 % in it

infact no i dont i like hand 1 better by about 5-8%

Damn you. My latent OCD with probabilities and no sight of a 6O online calculator means my afternoon is now toast - sigh....

With 37 unknown cards, there are 1369 possible ways this hand ends up.

To win, Hand 2 needs:

i) Running hearts
ii) A jack (without a king or an eight)
iii) Running fives
iv) A three (as long as there is no A, 8, running clubs or case 3 to go with it)
v) A four (as long as there is no A, 8, running spades or case 4 to go with it)
vi) A five and a six (as long as they're both not spades or diamonds)

i) 10 * 9 = 90 ways for running hearts.
ii) (3 [jacks] * 32 [other cards exlcuding kings and eights] * 2 [turn and river]) = 192 ways to get a winning jack.
iii) 3 * 2 = 6 ways to get running fives.
iv) (2 [threes] * 36 [othercards] * 2 [turn or river]) - (2 [turn or river] * 1 [case Ace]) - (2 [turn or river] * 2 [eights]) - (1 [3 clubs] * 7 [another club]) - 1 [both threes] = 144 - 2 - 4 - 7 - 1 = 130 ways to get a winning three.
v) (2 [fours] * 36 [othercards] * 2 [turn or river]) - (2 [turn or river] * 1 [case Ace]) - (2 [turn or river] * 2 [eights]) - (1 [4 spades] * 10 [another spade]) - 1 [both fours] = 144 - 2 - 4 - 10 - 1 = 127 ways to get a winning four.
vi) (3 [fives] * 4 [sixes] * 2 [turn or river]) - 2 [both spades] - 2 [both diamonds] - 2 [both hearts counted in i)] = 18 ways to get a winning 56.

90 + 192 + 6 + 130 + 127 + 18 = 563 times Hand 2 will win.

563 / 1369 = 41.1%


To chop the hand we need:

i) the case two (without an eight)
ii) both threes
iii) both fours
iv) a five (without the board coming another of the same suit as the five)

i) 1 [case two] * 34 [all cards less the two eights] * 2 [turn or river] = 68 ways to get the two.
ii) 2 ways to get the case threes.
iii) 2 ways to get the case fours.
iv) (3 [fives] * 34 [other cards] * 2 [turn or river]) - (1 [5 spades] * 10 [other spades] * 2 [turn or river]) - (1 [5 diamonds] * 7 [other diamonds] * 2 [turn or river]) - (1 [5 hearts] * 9 [other hearts] * 2 [turn or river]) = 204 - 20 - 14 - 18 = 152 ways to get a tying five.

68 + 2 + 2 + 152 = 224 ways to chop.

224 / 1369 = 16.4%.


Therefore Hand 1 must win 42.5% of the time.

Please feel free to throughly destroy my wasted afternoon by pointing out where I've gone wrong  ;djinn;

Wow, thanks, right or wrong im impressed and thanks for the efforts

hand 1 can only ever win 3/4 and can never scoop   

so player 1 is 56.3% to take 3/4

    player 1 is 16.2% to get 1/2

    player 1 is  27.5% to get nothing

so how do we think of the numbers and value of sticking the money in regarding the fact that player 2 is gtd 1/4 of the pot

Say for example both players have put 200 in preflop and both are sitting with 800 behind

Neither player can pass their hands imo, they have 2x pot behind

Bugger. Completely missed the H/L bit. I did the numbers for Hi.

doesnt need running jacks single jack will do

Lo side:

For it not to be a chop and Hand 2 to win:

i) a three comes without a five.
ii) a four comes without a five.

i) 2 [either three] * 34 [other cards] * 2 [turn or river] = 136 ways to get a winning three.
ii) 2 [either four] * 34 [other cards] * 2 [turn or river] = 136 ways to get a winning four.

272 / 1369 = 19.9%.

4 bet pre.

or fold both pre thus giving us nothing to calculate  ;nana;

Grrr.

Changed.

Hand 1

Gets nothing: 8.2%
Gets 1/4: 44.0%
Gets 1/2: 13.3%
Gets 3/4: 34.5%
Scoops: 0%

Equity: 43.5%

Hand 2

Gets nothing: 0%
Gets 1/4: 34.5%
Gets 1/2: 40.7%
Gets 3/4: 16.6%
Scoops: 8.2%

Equity: 56.5%

The 8s changing to an 8h on flop makes a big difference

One of those where Hand 1 is ahead but should fold.

It's a good thing i didn't used to play $75-$150 O/8 as i would have snapped your arm off for hand 1....oh wait i did used to, ah that's why it's i used to.

god thats too much calculation, impressed though longines. tbf hand 2 looked hotter to me, 3bdfd plus low counterfeit backup looked enough to edge it.

I'd go with Hand 2 too but it does seem slightly counter-intuitive that H1 makes a profit on 1 in 3 outcomes whereas H2 only makes a profit from 1 in 4.

Given 6PL08 is not exactly the grinder's first choice, maybe the degen's would prefer H1?

level?

id take hand 1 please

hi low always confuses me ....sigh