blonde poker forum

I'm going to play the following system that only really comes round a few times a year when the weather is bad. There are ten matches on Monday that contain a team that played on Saturday against a team that didn't play due to their game being postponed. Playing the hope that the team that didn't play on Saturday has more of an edge given the opponents played less than 48 hours ago gives the following bets.

LAYING all the teams in caps.

BORO at Barnsley (Lita also suspended for Boro)
SHEFF UTD V Preston(finished their game at 8pm on Satrurday evening)
MILLWALL v Brisol Rivers
NORWICH at Walsall
MK DONS at Huddersfileld
HARTLEPOOL V Oldham
ACCRINGTON V Bury
SHREWSBURY at Bradford
CHESTERFIELD V Rotherham
LINCOLN at Darlington


Will be happy to win 10% of the total exposure.

Any fancies for Monday's games?

Quite like the look of this.  There are some teams I'd lay there without the added break as well.

Interesting.

I'd like to wait to see the teamsheets but charlton could be a big lay. there're some very tired legs in the squad after playing 60 minutes with 9 men and only 10 minutes with a full team (sodje wasn't sent off till the 19th mimute but he'd already been off for 9 or 10 minutes having a head wound stitched up).

plus one of the sending offs was deon burton who's top scorer this year, the other sam sodje is one of only 3 fit centre backs at the club

Was he having that screw he's got loose tightened?

lol. probs not judging by the challenge that got him sent off, if anything it looked like they'd loosened it a bit

At what prices are you willing to lay them? The reason I ask is will the price already reflect the fact these teams have played within 48 hours? While I understand the sentiment I am not sure it will equate to value lays, as exchange prices are wrong much less often than ever before on major soccer matches imo.

What are your thoughts on the top price you are willing to lay each team at?

Hi mate,

I took the prices these teams were b4 Saturdays games and in miost cases they havent changed much at all. One or two have got shorter after good results on Satiurday. As for the prices on the exchanges being solid, they are allmost all fixed odds firm prices reduced down to 101% in about 95% of the games.


I will see what the latest team news is 2morrow and judge each game individually but the prices I have up there already are in 101-102% markets so unless something major happens they should be layable without having to chase the money.

I understand your views but one of the reasons I rarely lay on Betfair is because its so rare to find a value lay. I must admit I haven't looked into these matches but just taking the first one which is laying Middlesboro which at this time you can lay them at 2.78 - about 9/5.

Bets price with the firms is 17/10 and they are betting to around 108%.

So when you say you are laying to a book of 102% are you trading or am I missing something?

Cheers for the reply btw.

np mate I am only laying one side and not trading them, they are just pure lays.

On the exchnages you have to convert your markets to the % the events are traded to on there if you want to get laid. For instance if you bet a 90 minutes football match with three prices to the same % as the fixed odds firms you need to convert them to exchange % of around 101-102 to get 'exchange prices'.

The easiest way to do this is divide your prices by the fixed odds 108 and times it by the exchange % , call it 101.

So in the example you have given at 17/10, this is 37.03% . Divide it by 108 then multiply it by the new % you want to get to,  in this example 101%. That gives you 34.64% so around 15/8. So just taking the fixed odds prices and converting it to exchange prices means Boro would be a lay at around 15/8. I happen to think Bioro should be a bigger than 17/10 in a fixed odds book so I would lay them at the 2.78 that is top price on the exchange at the mo.

At the top prices with the books, that game is bet to 102% anyway but the individual layers are betting their 3 prices to much more and thats where your opinion comes into play and you weight your prices accordingly.

Sorry if that is long winded mate and only really covers converting fixed odds to tradable exchange prices.

I can't agree although I wish you good luck with your lays.
 
If however you make Boro 15/8 then laying at 9/5 is a value bet IYO - although depending on you commsion % that can hike the price up even more.

Thats the nail on the head really, I could well be wrong and they might win but at that price I am happy to take my chance. Others might think that price is too big and thats the beauty of gambling.

The comm rate is a problem as I pay premium charge on BF so I am using a diff exchange and there is a lot less liquidity there so I might not manage to lay em all for the full amounts although they are particularly big bets.

good luck if you have a bet 2morrow mate.

Treble on Chelski, Newcastle, and Citeh.

1/ Peterbro v  Cardiff     @ 6/5
2/ Swindon  v Yeovil    @ 17/20
3/ Bournemouth  v Torquay    @ 10/11
4/ Dag & Red  v Cheltenham    @ 8/13
5/ Salisbury v  Oxford Utd     @ 7/10

£5 on
£106.69 Back

this is looking like a def lay now @ 13/10, a combination of illness, injury and suspension means the entire first choice back 4 are not travelling to brentford

Birminghams price to beat stoke looks generous to me @ 21/10.... Having a piece of that pie!

yes that does look a tough game with the players out.

mighty leeds already 1-0 up!

norrrrr bok.

fffffffffffffffffs

Treble today.

Brentford dnb@ 2.1
Chelsea -1.5@ 2.12
Wolves +0.25@ 2.33

Burton
Swansea
Barnsley

Win Singles Doubles and Treble

1   Swansea v C Palace (Backing  Swansea @ 2.04)
2   Blackburn v Sunderland (Backing  Blackburn @ 2.06)
3   Stoke v Birmingham (Backing  Stoke @ 2.49)
4   Barnsley v Middlesbrough (Backing  Barnsley @ 3.08)

£5.40 returns 169.51

1   Nottm Forest v Coventry (Backing  Nottm Forest @ 1.69)
2   Scunthorpe v West Brom (Backing  West Brom @ 1.77)
3   Dag and Red v Cheltenham (Backing  Dag and Red @ 1.71)
4   Swindon v Yeovil (Backing  Swindon @ 1.85)

£5.40 returns £46.22

28 Dec 2009 - Newcastle v Derby - 90 Minutes

Newcastle @ 4/11

28 Dec 2009 - Nottingham Forest v Coventry - 90 Minutes

Nottingham Forest @ 4/7

28 Dec 2009 - Dag & Red v Cheltenham - 90 Minutes

Dag & Red @ 8/13

28 Dec 2009 - Bournemouth v Torquay - 90 Minutes

Bournemouth @ EVS

5.9/1 why are Bournemouth such good odds? won 7 at home, torquay poor away record?

Goal frenzy please Leeds last 10!!!

BOOOOOOOOM.

LEIGH BROMBBBBBBBBBBY opens his leeds account with 5 mins left!

hold now plz.

JERMAIIIIIIIIIINE BECKFORD, JERMAINE BECKFORD!!!

4-2.

11 points clear of 3rd place after 23 games played each, come on.

Lottery Numbers please?

haha longy will be happy two more late goals, 15 for the season in the last 10mins of games. Golden!

Lol I sure was, though tbh I don't realistically think we will catch Leeds and am much more interested in the Charlton and Colchester scores at this point.

Only two bets today after cleaning out my account this weekend with bad bets...

Chelsea,,, Newcastle,,, Dag and Red and Rochdale £40 fourfold... Returns 207.34

Chelsea,,, Everton,,, Man City,,, Ipswich,,, Newcastle,,, Norwich,,, Dag and Red,,, Rochdale and Boro £10 accumulator... Returns 923.87

run good pls

I've backed:

Blackburn to beat Sunderland @ 6/5
Brentford DNB against Charlton @ 5/4 (this ones on Gatso)
Big DBL on Spurs & Everton @ also around 5/4.

ive also piled into this!  half way there!

Norwich's game at Walsall has been called off due to a frozen pitch, glad I am not in the country or I would have gone.

Lay Middlesboro v Barnsley @ 2.54
Bournemouth to beat Torquay @ 2.08
Lay Charlton v Brentford @ 2.58
Lay N Forest v Coventry @1.65
Lay Swansea v Palace @ 1.99
Blackburn to beat Sunderland @ 2.06
Stoke v Birmingham over 2.5 goals @ 2.66

Spurs, Chelsea and Birmingham in one acca

Man City and Newcastle in a double

Chelsea 0 - 1 Fulham after 4 mins

Fulham on fire these days

only 6 of the ten matches survived but I followed Gatso in and laid a little Charlton , tho only got partly matched. Good luck all.

There are set rules in life:

1. You do not bet on your own team
2. You do not bet on your own team
3. etc...

don't usually just expected them to be fired up today after a disappointing month...

Drogba's last game... hes got to prove something!! Get one back before half time and we'll dominate 2nd! Come on Chels! Do it for Marcin!!

fu chelsea.

Come on FULHAM!!!!!

why? out of interest.

I would say this game is a cert of 0-0 or 1-0

I'm watching that Stoke game and its pretty open at the mo.

cheers for routing against my bet... Remind to do likewise when you're all in the tourney and let me fistpump when you go out...

4 out of 8 Stoke home games have had more than 2 goals
5 out of 10 Birmingham away games have had more 2 goals

2.66 way to high for me, although as its still 0-0 its now looking unlikely

Coupon was doing alright till Dag & Reds fuck my life right on the stroke of Half Time

2 winning
2 Drawing
1 losing 1-0

Great prediction when it is 0-0 right on half time

1-0 Brum

1-0 Birmingham, nice one mate

You arent beat yet Matt, its still wide open. Must have been about 15 corners at the mo too.

no one brought up the situation till bang on half time, i fancied a low score pre kick off

Brum keeper made two goal line saves in the last 2 mins.

Cant believe there has only been 1 goal so far!

Goooaaaaaaalll!! Great header Drogs! FTW!!!!

Wiiiiiiiiiiiii!! Funny funny own goal! lol Marcin you bet on who ever you like!!!

bit of an evening sweat coming up .........

27.Dec 2009 21:27 89/95 200.00 W
Nottm Forest v Coventry : Match Betting 90 Minutes Nottm Forest 8/15 Open
  Newcastle v Derby : Match Betting 90 Minutes Newcastle 4/11 Open   
  Stockport v Leeds : Match Betting 90 Minutes Leeds 4/11 Won   
  Rochdale v Morecambe : Match Betting 90 Minutes Rochdale 8/11 Open

wow, brilliant stuff from P'boro 2nd half.

4-0 down at Half Time

Rochdale
West brom
Leeds
NEWCASTLE

Sweeeaaaatttt

weeeeeee ...n1 brum

Weeee, 1st acca in :)

Did in £156. The two biggest lays won, Millwall and a late goal from my own team Sheff Utd made a swing of £366 to turn a potential winning day into a losing day.

gl to those accas running onto Newcastle guys.

Newcastle game

Derby HT/Newcastle FT @ 20/1
Nolan FGS @ 11/2
Newcastle to win 3-1 @ 12/1

Singles.

plus small Scorecast on both above score and scorer

LOL at Cardiff, just LOL

Does us a bit of a favour WP Peterborough.

Does us more of a favour as you are more nailed on for top 6 than we are. VWP Peterborough, great comeback

How have Newcastle not scored yet? Im getting worried.

every signle Blonde person had Newcsstle as thre safe bet... Obviusly I was gkng to folow suit. . After evertything came in for the dayu it hit me.... F*****K, the law of blonde physics does 'not allow evryone on this befautiful site to reclaim profit.... of course Newcastle were goig to screw ebverything, and the worst podfsible way, 2-0 20 minutes in, to detrby, we can all deal with it...... EWHY TEASDE US ALL THE WAY! I keep wanting me to think next year, it'll be my year......... reality ......... its just another Friday!

big sigh....

Peace

Stribs

The joys of betfair :)

FUNNY STORY: (caps weren't intended and its not that funny - disclaimer)

I had my cheeky little acca for the weekend, seeing Leeds romp home with there win, seeing West Brom come back from the grasps of a draw (yes Scunthorpe went to 9 men) so it was all on Newcastle, I had to go for a post christmas doo so was to miss the game but caught Blatch was waiting for the same game.. I was confident! My friend has one of those fancy things... an I phone I believe, 51 minutes 0 - 0 I started to think.... full time had passed and I text a friend asking for the score he ruined it all with confirmation.... I text back 'sigggh... At least Blatch knows my pain, although I bet he 'layed' it off and made his profit' - I chuckled

Bottom line - How on earth do I start 'laying' my bets off!

Lay Newcastle pre game at 1.43 so you make a nice profit all round. 

I.e. I stood to collect 948 from my 200 stake.  I laid Newcastle for 500 meaning if Newcastle win I would collect 948 from bookie but lose 215 on betfair (500 x 1.43) and if Newcastle didnt win I lose 200 at bookie and win 500 on betfair.

Simpleeeeeeeessssss

Cant i not bet on Fulham?

was parked up, fuming, 2.15 decision is a joke, fine needed

had £75 treble, plymouth 15/8 forrest 8/13 and bolton 10/11 going onto tonight.

but also took a view that west ham were too big coming off the back of a draw vs chelsea and a win vs pompey, had £50 win 15/2, £25 halftime/ft £10 3-0 £10-2-0 £5 3-1 :)

come on wanderers.

Yeah I bet you were, the local press stories are suggesting around 2000 Norwich fans were attending the game. To not make an earlier decision with a big away support travelling a decent distant is a disgrace. The decision should have been made around 10am, it is not like it was unforseen circumstances.

The rumour on the grapevine is that the Norwich players started to warm up and found it unplayable in spots and asked the ref to have another look who then called it off. Ofc it was definitely in Norwich's interest to have the game called off, coming off a boxing day game which Walsall hadn't and a few injuries in the squad.

I'm liking bolton tonight. Weighed in earlier at 1.83, mostly 1.72 now bar fred's 1.8 which is still an ok price imo.

Hull i expect to be dog tired from the man u effort just 2 days ago, bolton have had an extra day off since the draw away with burnley on saturday. This cannot be underestimated. Their home form isn't terrible especially against those in the mire alongside them.

Hull's away form is atrocious, i may even play on bolton - 1@ paddy's 2.43.

As mentioned on another thread how can villa be priced at 3.4 for this game, barred myself from betfair for now but really tempted to get on at this price

Anyone who likes money lay villa,trust me :)

Walsall chairman not happy, saying ref basically crumbled under pressure from Lambert

Surely villa are value at 11/2 now,if i had money i'd go back in but i'm not watching the game so fk no's gogogogo villa,obv it'll be a draw it's how i roll

Villa just have a blatant penalty turned down why am i so unliked upstairs i get why i'm not on this green earth but ffs surely the gods upstairs dont give a fk that am boring and deserve to lose every bet i put on

Yeah, that was a pen. LOL @ whoever the commentator is saying the ref got it spot on.

Liverpool had one turned down earlier though, doesn't make things right but sort of even

LOL liverpool win,all you liverpool fans on here owe me a drink congrats fjgasjgfkajghsfhgkjasdhfgiuahrgthaskjdfh

Working?

FYP.......................................And  Bolton 2-0 up and fucked it up and lost me £120

Getting a bit ahead of myself here but Rangers look too big for Sunday's OF game at 11/5 on Paddypower. Not a game to get too involved with financially though.

QFMFT :) LOL

They fucked Trigg for £664!

I actually think Celtic are too big at 5/4 at Parkhead

Im on them, and im on 2-0 @ 17/2, 3-0 @ 18/1, 3-1 @ 18/1

Aye, was down for Preston V Barnsley on Boxing day too! :D

ffs

got a mini sweat on arsenal tonight, put them in a 4 team acca on monday not realising they didnt play till weds!  bit of a silly bet in hindsight, pompy are dire but have shown improvement under grant and arsenal at a short price away from home always have a tendancy to struggle vs a team that get stuck in.  we shall see!

Do you not agree?

Yes, I do not agree

Huh? are you referring to the Insua handball? If so then that was never ever ever ever ever a pen. Obv the pool had a stonewaller turned down too.

Just reading the bbc updates tbh :)

Lol well GTFO then, seriously though high ball looped into the box there was no one near Insua he just basically made a bolx of the header and headed onto his own arm obv you cannot give it as there was no intent whatsoever

stick on Celtic victory, i give my Scottish Dave Stamp of Approval!

Ya Dancing Bear.....

Incidentally your hardly in a good position on making an objective point of view.....Can I ask a question? IF Rangers offered huge value in the Old firm game this weekend- say 5-1- would you take it?

of course id back them at 5/1, anyone would

and i can make an objective point of view if i wish, im only giving my views on the game coming up, if you support the opposition, and don't like my viw, you don't need to take swipes at me.

LOL....sorry Dave that you dont know what that sentence means....it is in no way a swipe....taken from wiki- "objectivity is understood as synonymous with neutrality"- since you are a Celtic fan there is no way your view can be neutral- and vice versa for me on this game! we can both try to be as level headed as we want and argue our points but because we are opposing fans our view will always have subjectivity to it(no matter what we say)

lol

Following the Scottish Dave stamp of approval for a Celtic win Paddy Power have pushed Celtic out to 11/8 and cut Rangers to 15/8. Seriously though, if you really think 5/4 Celtic is value may I suggest taking the 6/4 currently available on Betfair.
 

wp Soviet.

ever had dealings with corals?

tried to withdraw a chunk from there site and because i used to bet quite a bit there about 3 years ago they are messing me about saying they arent sure where the money will be sent (old card or new).  The problem with this is the old accounts i used to use are finished with now so if it gets sent there it will be a nightmare to get back!  

So i've had a nice little win but not sure if i will be able to access it !

never had this problem before as i've never needed to withdraw from any online betting/poker accounts....

ty BH.

hopefully i will see the money one day!

You can ask for a Cheque to be sent out for the money, just means you need to wait about 1-2 weeks to get it tho.

The thing i liked about William Hills is that if you won online you could print a special receipt out, take it to the local shop, they scan the bar code and pay you out there and then, and your online account gets deducted the amount.

Nice touch Billy's

Have you had a cheque from Corals?  Spoke to some kid on the phone, he talked like he was in blazin' squad and was doing my nut in.  Saying words that sound intelligent but in the wrong context, if I ever meet him at the crossroads he's bang in trouble.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NM_V5zXmPQ

Never from Coral TBH, but had them from Betfair, and someone else i can't remember now.

Coral will do Cheques tho. check there cashout info on their website

Cant do super Multai Accas on Betfair tho!!!

8 fold is the most you can bet at once.

and 5 days later they've done the same thing. called off slightly earlier (12.35) but still waited 'til all our fans were halfway there. abs ridic situation

Farcical stuff from Walsall, there argument that Lambert somehow influenced the refs decision last week looks even weaker. More like officials at Walsall are leaning on refs to get games on, because Charlton and Norwich are big draws on the original fixture dates.