blonde poker forum

Playing the DTD deepstack sat online.

Final table of 10 players. Blinds 2500/5000 + 250

Big stack has 65k, short stack has 25k so very evenly spread considering the blinds.

We're on 35k sat in 6th position. 7th gets €225 6th gets a seat.

We're in middle position with  Ks Ad

EP shoves for 35k

We.........

Meh it is probably close ICM wise, but I am going to say call. Any reads on EP?

HUD Stats on shover. If he is near aggro then I call, if hes nitty I fold.

EP has done his fair share of shoving as has everyone else.

I didn't really think ranges were overly important here given that we have AK. We can assume that his range includes a lot of hands that we're flipping and a couple that we're crushing + a couple that crush us.

The question is do we call knowing it's probably a flip that if we win we are pretty much locked or do we wait to shove a weaker holding with FE for the 10k that's in every unopened pot?

Ranges are pretty important as we need to know we dominating a good proportion of his range to make the call. Does he a9s shove here for example etc.

I call/ship here 100% as we are very likely not getting a seat without getting involved at some point here so I do it now while I have a premium rather than having to blind shove atc next orbit.

not close enough to the bubble to consider folding  - i snap

This is why I think it's a 50 50.

I think A9 is just outside of his range. A10 I think he shoves, AJ+ definitely. Given that AA and KK obviously make up a portion of his range as well as 66+ which we're slightly behind I think we can class it as a flip before we've seen his cards.

Question is do we flip with a premium or risk waiting. We have to get involved at some point and if we double we've locked a seat.

Stacks make this tough as well. There aren't any desperate short stacks and there isn't a huge stack pushing people around. If there was a big stack I think it's closer to a pass as there's going to be a lot more action and more chance of shoves being called meaning that we might just be able to fold our way to a seat.

I call this 10 handed. 9 handed is borderline and 8 handed a fold for me

Think this is closer than people think. I can't imagine he's shoving wide UTG in this situation

When holding  Ks Ad with 7 bbs - facing a 7bb shove it's a snap for me, maybe a fold on the bubble but that aside we can't afford to wait

Not certain it was utg but definitely early because I was in a middle position.

I agree it's very close that's why I posted it for opinions. Some interesting thoughts from people.

he doesn't need to be shoving very wide to make the call right

And there's problem 'b'.

88+ and A10+ must make this a call and that's probably narrow enough for the shove at these blinds.

Bear in mind that's he's about to be the BB so going to be dropping to 25k very soon so his range range doesn't have to be uber tight.

Not so much a proper read but do we at least know if is he in the 5% of people in those comps who is better of playing with a deck of cards than eating them?

meh this close to bubble in a satalite, I dont think people are shoving A10o, even AJo is pretty close too. Not even sure if 88 is in his range if he is tight.

Meh, this is a FML spot where you hate life and all options suck. On balance after thinking about this spot for a bit I think I fold, at the table with less time to think I'm sure in this spot i'd be jamming sometimes, but i think in a vacum i think a fold is best.

With the stacks being pretty even no one, except perhaps the biggest stack, is in fold to advance mode
Getting your chips in first right now is huge I think position/picking the stacks that you shove on outweighs your actual cards. I'd be looking around for someone who I thought was good and would play 'correctly' and be jamming on her.
Even if the blinds pass through you, then youll still have a stack which can decimate everyone except perhaps the top two stacks and really the stacks in 3rd to 5th and 7th-8th shouldn't be calling you with anything but premiums. In an everyone plays optimal world you should have a few orbits of midstacks jamming into other midstacks, the shorties jamming into the midstacks and the biggest stack doing fuck all and just wait for a couple of people to get coolered.

i call here, its a situation where it seems if we double we basically have the seat so ill take the flip now where we most likely have the greater equity than leave it and end up in a worse situation later if that makes sence.

It really was a FML spot. You see the AK and life is all good, you're ready to shove and pick up the 10k in the middle. Then someone shoves and you just sink.

I still don't know what the correct play is. Really bad spot. I'm just glad it was only for a £336 seat and not something bigger.

based on the last post I'm changing my answer to a crying fold (though in reality I probs get it in here quite a lot in the heat of battle). I thought this was a £1k seat, not a £336 so we're 1 step closer to an effective bubble than I thought