blonde poker forum

Is this ever a fold?

We've got 30k of 95k in play with 4 seats up for grabs. I obv snap call but should I have passed?

Seems stupid to even think about given that I'm so far ahead but losing this pot put me right back in the pack. I also lose the next hand with AK. 

Can't help but think this is one of those keep out of the action spots. Obv win this and we're locked but we were locked anyway so should we switch off and go to bed?

http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $800(BB) Poker Stars Game#39816477632

MOJOEX1 ($4,460)
EvilPie ($29,710)
obnoxious24 ($4,355)
cgarbin ($6,250)
jmoney7807 ($8,730)
dino1980 ($20,620)
mentatss ($10,775)
chrisal67 ($9,180)
ftcky ($1,420)

jmoney7807 antes $75
dino1980 antes $75
mentatss antes $75
chrisal67 antes $75
ftcky antes $75
MOJOEX1 antes $75
EvilPie antes $75
obnoxious24 antes $75
cgarbin antes $75
MOJOEX1 posts (SB) $400
EvilPie posts (BB) $800

Dealt to EvilPie Ac  Ad 
fold, fold,
jmoney7807 raises to $8,655 (AI)
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
EvilPie calls $7,855
FLOP ($18,385) 4c  3d  Qd 
TURN ($18,385) 4c  3d  Qd  7h 
RIVER ($18,385) 4c  3d  Qd  7h  9s 
jmoney7807 shows 3c  3h 
(Pre 18%, Flop 85.7%, Turn 95.5%)

EvilPie shows Ac  Ad 
(Pre 82%, Flop 14.3%, Turn 4.5%)

jmoney7807 wins $18,385

Nah this is a call IMO, even though you have an above avg stack for when the bubble bursts you aren't in fold to advance mode quite yet as there are still nine left and only four seats (inside cut-off by three, five still to be knocked out to win seat). Win this pot and you're pretty much 100% lock and can fold to cash.

edit: Matt I plugged the numbers into a ICM nash calculator (which assumes everyone plays perfectly which they obv don't). According to that utg+2 should be pushing 16.3%, 77+ A2s+ A9o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+  and you can call with 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+

This confirms to me that i'm a nit and that i'm burniing money as i think i'm tank calling with QQ here and probs dumping JJ

what dino said. def not a lock yet

and then don't play the ak next hand. I'm guessing it was against dino and he destroyed you with 2 random cards like he always does to me near the bubble in sats

Sounds like me, apologies in advance for the next time i do it (shoving not calling I guess?) I actually have no clue as to what your stars name is (i'm guessing it's not close to your Blonde s/n) PM me if you want, or when i feel less lazy I guess i could do a forum search of your posts.

I may be exagerating somewhat. it's possible I've only ever played you twice on stars, not sure as my pt database has exploded

I'm still bitter about you taking me out of 2 sats on the bubble inside 5 minutes, the nightly $160ish and a wcoop I think

as I remember it you called with the bottom of your range, I'd shoved with the top of mine and you got lucky both times though this may well all be distorted in my mind due to the bitterness. would actually be interested to see if you've still got the hands, stars name is lalarina

thread hijack complete

fyp

Interesting to see what ICM says. I think I would've probably called with similar to yourself. I would definitely consider JJ marginal as I was more or less locked anyway and didn't need to do anything. Surprised to see 88 and AJs in there as calls.

I think its a call Matt without stoving it, even with losing the hand we're still in decent shape.

Although I would have folded AK the next hand.   :P

AK was against short stack so not too bad. Problem was I reshoved and got called by a mid stack with a pair :) I'll dig it out when I get home and post it.

I ended up finishing 5th for 10 bucks. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'd probably fold JJ here, but calling with AA, KK and QQ.

With your stack I'm calling with 1010+. Let's get this shit done.