blonde poker forum

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5208349P

Really thought this was a tough spot and can't decide if my call was the right one. I've had mixed feedback.

I've only been at the table for 20 hands so I have no reads, over those 20 hands the SB is playing 11/8

for me, reasons for calling;
He is isolating wide alot of the time here, his range can be QK+ A8+ 66+ which I dominate a large proportion of.
There are 1600 players left
There is alot of short stacks shoving now and I would prefer to have a big stack to ride it out.
If I win the pot I go into the top 3.


Reasons for folding:
The BB's all in is >10BBs, does this imply that both ranges are tighter and the isolator may not ship it in so wide?
Do I really need to have a top 3 stack at this stage when I am still 60th out of 1600
I have plenty of chips to play with and is this a needless gamble?

Any thought would be appreciated

Did you tank call? If so justice for failed slowroll imo.

i'd call here and feel ok about it, you gave the guy a decent range and you just got coolered. ul

I'd fold, you are in a good position and don't need to get involved imo........

i believe that's called a nitroll sir

This seems reasonable, probs should be wider if co and sb have any idea. Therefore you have answered your own question as tens is the nuts in this spot.

i think with 1600 left its a call, the stacks will get so shallow soon you could do with plenty back up in the flips.

when you first asked me i wasnt so sure, but now im pretty sure its a call. If this guys a good player than gotta be expecting him to be isolating with a huge range of hands, probably any ace, 66+, KQo

pretty happy bout calling here, although it prolly is closer in the latter stages of the biggest Million ever surely alot of ppl were nitting it up alot. Still obv stack

Fold he has Queens....

Seriously this is a call alllllllllll day

Wow I'm obv the fish, I just don't particularly want to gamble when I have a reasonable position in the tourney...........

Sigh the aim in mtt's is to win all the chips right?

What is the best way to win all the chips, by making the best play each hand. Not caring that you have a reasonable position in the tourney with a 1000 people left.

The way I'm thinking about it is I will find a better spot than this to get my chips in if I'm patient, but I can understand how your thinking, high risk/high reward. Maybe I'm too tight in tourneys these days..........

Andy look at the payout structures, all that matters is winning, cashing can bog off.

Thing is more often then not this will be a great spot to get your chips in.

Food for thought ;carlocitrone;

Actually Woodsey suprised at your thought here when you called off small to big blind with threes in the deep stack a few months backs

Against 1 player its an instacall, its the fact its against 2 players that is making me think otherwise. In that deepstack I was pretty much calling with any pair to a late position shipper, especially that particular guy, as long as I have a few chips left if I lose.

Also, WTF at remembering that hand I barely remember it rotflmfao

Pleased at the mixed reaction as I think its a super tough spot

Dude I remember hands that you played 3 years ago ;)

lol? reading a different thread alex? only 1 reply says fold...

lol, yeah it was the quantity of woodsey expressing he would fold that threw me off.

Does that hair shit work? I'm going a bit bald these days rotflmfao

Think I probably find a fold here tbh. Yes we want all the chips but it's a long comp and there will be plenty more chances to get them.

We've got 50 bigs and really don't need to risk losing 35 of them with a hand that is likely racing at best.

Given the range you've assigned it's a call but I don't know how you think he's doing this with A8, A9 even A10

He might be iso raising 77 to 99 but he also does this with JJ and QQ which seem more likely.

JJ, QQ, AK and AQ are the hands I'm putting him on without some serious info.

If I see AK face up I snap him off but while there's a good chance I'm crushed as well I'm folding.

based on how wide the original shover's range is the sb will reship it with a range that dominates that....TT dominates that reshoving range also

K this bugged, me, fk ICM as we are too far out, buttt..... its a fold.




 191,730,103,488  games   231.978 secs   826,501,234  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    23.024%     22.29%    00.73%       42735464196    1407953794.00   { 22+, A8s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, 84s+, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1:    40.330%     39.43%    00.89%       75607988508    1715915272.00   { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 2:    36.647%     36.04%    00.60%       69108252552    1154529166.00   { TT }


I think these ranges seem reasonable, maybe his iso range is too wide, given the fact that hero has villain covered and we are deep in a 4mil comp, where ppl will probs play a little tighter towards the end, 9 handed. Not sure, maybe replace the KQ's with AJs or smaller pps, but i think the ranges are reasonably close.

Pot 492682 (antes not included, ill round up to 500k)

Hero has to call 342k to win 500k.

To break even, u need to win 342/ (342+500) = 40.6%, as we only have 36.6% equity v these ranges, its a fold, especially given hero's stacksize, the desperate nature of other shorties and our position in the comp.


Jacks is a call,


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 191,730,103,488  games   232.456 secs   824,801,697  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    20.951%     20.24%    00.71%       38800027716    1370173414.00   { 22+, A8s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, 84s+, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1:    37.460%     36.54%    00.92%       70055925600    1765433092.00   { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 2:    41.589%     40.97%    00.62%       78545578380    1192965286.00   { JJ }



---

Well Alex, you say it's a fold, but it really isn't.

Thread isn't needed to realise this is a call imo.

agree that in most mid/high mtts its a call

But in this tourney where a very high percentage of the players are bad,and at this stage of the tournament unless we have reads saying otherwise i,d assume bad = weak/tight, and i,d think the weak/tight players would either flat or fold the hands we,ve got crushed here and shove the hands that have us in bad shape or racing against.

So a quick check on opr here and if the sb has good stats then its a call,otherwise its a fold for me.

i think those ranges are abit off, and don't forget we aren't 3 handed for the side pot which is meaty enough on its own.

This.

This. The maths is off as we take the side pot a certain amount of the time.

aha k cool, missed that nindawg. someone give a good iso range for an average player in this comp please.

the above



            equity           win              tie              pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    24.362%     23.65%    00.71%        2057508601     61990309.50   { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    32.233%     31.27%    00.96%        2720967354     83383480.00   { 66+, A7s+, KQs, A8o+, KQo }
Hand 2:    43.405%     43.04%    00.37%        3744444194     31881699.50   { TcTd }



Might be a little wide iso'ing range. OPR'd him, doesn't seem terrible or anything.

rly jamming that wide? seems optimistic given not closing action, stacksizes and where SB jammed from + villains stacksize

This is exactly my argument for folding.

KQo, A7s, 66 ?

Seems optimistic to be honest. He can't be that sure that he's ahead of original shover with these holdings so why risk running in to something when he might not even be good for the main pot?

I would've thought more realistic would be AJs, 99+, AQo but maybe I'm just a nit.

meh, doubt even sum random is just going to fold ATs and 77+ to a 12.5bb shove from the CO.

Tighter range...

              equity           win                tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    22.708%     22.03%    00.69%         453545163     14300413.00   { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    36.288%     35.24%    01.07%         725632289     21987643.00   { 77+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2:    41.004%     40.54%    00.50%         834581053     10196701.00   { TcTd }


Still a call though  :)

the fact that he's not closing the action is surely the reason for shoving the bottom end of his range, it's done to isolate

we can to a certain extent give less weight to the very top of his range, making the call here even better, as he may not always jam ak, qq+, preferring to flat the ss shove hoping to get you involved

we have a ten and another hand. Just on the basis that it makes more sets than any other hand we should call.

if i wrote the original post properly then my answer would be our cock.

You and Mr Keys share a cock?

I know you're making a joke at me which I'm fine with but this is James mfkin Keys you're also referring to.

Apologise immediately otherwise he will beat the shit out you next time you are at DTD without even touching you, because he's James mfkin Keys and he can.

Ask Rookie, he tried to mess with Keys and got beaten up too.