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Community Forums => Betting Tips and Sport Discussion => Topic started by: WarBwastard on March 07, 2010, 02:27:30 AM



Title: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: WarBwastard on March 07, 2010, 02:27:30 AM
Don't know much about this sort of thing so this isn't a tip, just a discussion if you will about what might occur tomorrow when they dish out the Best Picture Oscar.

Inglourious Basterds is the outsider, you can get 20.0 on Betfair still.  I backed this a few weeks ago with Skybet who now have shortened to 12/1.  BWIN have 16's.  Just because I thought it was the type of film that wins this award.  Without really knowing what I was talking about of course.  But after further research I feel quite positive about this.

It looks like there might be a surprise here.  Usually the biggest grossing film of the year doesn't win this Oscar, which in this case is Avatar. Also Hurt Locker, which is also a short price has not received as much enthusiasm from the dudes who actually vote for the Academy Awards as Inglourious Basterds - alot of whom are rabid Tarantino fans.  Apparently a good indicator as to which movie wins this award is the winner of Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards.  These chaps make up a huge percentage of the voters for the Academy Awards and they gave their Best Picture award to Inglourious Basterds.

Also the Jewish influence in Hollywood appear to love this film (whether they should or not is for another conversation) and it doesn't hurt that Christopher Waltz who plays Hans Landa, has wee ones who are Jewish - some how.  So anyway..if you had a few shillings knocking about the place you could do worse than have a wee punt on this.  I've had a fairly decent sized bet on this (for me anyway), as Barry Norman would say, "and why not."


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on March 07, 2010, 02:30:04 AM
I will not be betting on this.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: maldini32 on March 07, 2010, 04:24:12 AM
I will be betting on this.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: DaveShoelace on March 07, 2010, 08:16:13 AM
I might be betting on this


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Acidmouse on March 07, 2010, 10:57:12 AM
I just cant see it winning, but u never know at that price

Hollywood is Jewish, virtually everyfilm is written, produced, directed, actor'd in by Jews so whatever film wins just look at the credits of the film at the end of it.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Chompy on March 07, 2010, 11:48:28 AM
The way the best film is voted for has been changed this year and apparently this might work in favour of Inglorious. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see it collect.
Please not Avatar, anything but.
Apparently Alex Zane is in the running to take over on Film 2010. He described Avatar as James Cameron's finest hour. Joke.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 12:00:44 PM
Alex Zane also works for The Sun so no surprise he's supporting 'Avatar' (watching Sky News y'can't help but notice not much criticism against 'Avatar' although Barry Norman and Adam Boulton gave it a slight kicking).

I think Alex can do the showbiz interviews a bit better than Mark Kermode can which bodes well for his chances to take over Jonathan Ross's gig but he's a lucky chancer who's surprisingly popular.

Can IB win? It's odds a few weeks back was 25/1 when it was third favourite. Trimmed all the way down to generally 12/1 and 14/1 though as the value hunters took a punt at it.

It should be 'The Hurt Locker' considering the amount of guild awards it's won but the fact that 'Avatar' has made more than a boatload of money could prove telling that money rules everything in Hollywood.

THL still narrowly favoured across the board to win Best Picture.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/awards/oscars/best-film

If IB wins it'll be the biggest upset since 'Chariots of Fire' beat out 'Reds' and 'On Golden Pond' ('Crash' beating 'Brokeback Mountain' wasn't so much of a surprise as the odds movement and the murmurings that 'Crash' had some significant support within AMPAS was eventually proven to be right).


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Jamier-Host on March 07, 2010, 12:11:16 PM
Hurt Locker odds against with Bwin now


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 12:29:06 PM
...they're the only bookie to do so (which either makes them idiots if THL wins or an absolute genius if THL doesn't win). Keeps getting nibbled at though as it was 11/10 and it's into 20/19.

bwin are probably the tightest bookie out there in regards the huge edges they have on their odds. They'd quote you odds of 4/6 for both sides of a coin flip.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 12:55:49 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: AgentChip109 on March 07, 2010, 12:59:00 PM
anyone know if there will be a live feed on the net for this tonight?


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 01:04:38 PM
anyone know if there will be a live feed on the net for this tonight?

Sky Premier HD, 1:00am-5:30am


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: AgentChip109 on March 07, 2010, 01:11:36 PM
i dont have sky movies at my place :(
this was why i was hopin for a live feed


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: paulhouk03 on March 07, 2010, 01:24:21 PM
anyone know if there will be a live feed on the net for this tonight?

Sky Premier HD, 1:00am-5:30am

do you not have topay for it?
I remember them charging 15£ to watch it about 5 years ago


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 01:43:43 PM
anyone know if there will be a live feed on the net for this tonight?

Sky Premier HD, 1:00am-5:30am

do you not have topay for it?
I remember them charging 15£ to watch it about 5 years ago

well technically you need to pay for Sky and also the Movie channels, apart from that, no you dont need to pay for it.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 01:46:35 PM
Sky have always put it on one of their movie channels since acquiring the rights ahead of the BBC.

I don't have Sky's movie channel package but will be watching it online (will be gambling on the generosity of strangers on a certain website providing the feed). Failing that there's always BBC Radio Five Live and their coverage no matter how random it may be thanks to Dotun Adebayo.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 04:24:08 PM
Hmmm. Bet365 and Stan James have trimmed Avatar into 'evens'. It's a best-priced 5/4 over at Betfred.

Will be interesting to see if there are any more odds movements between now and 1am.

I think Bet365 may even have betting in-running on the Oscars like they did last year.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Nico29 on March 07, 2010, 07:05:59 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen.

Bit of an anti bok post this surely, looks nailed on now.

Im on@16s, great film and maybe they'll go for this rather than choose between the big 2.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 08:58:21 PM
Some slight trimming of IB as it goes into a best-priced 14/1 with Ladbrokes and Stan James (still a worst-priced 10/1 with William Hill).

I'm surprised 'Avatar' supporters haven't attacked that 5/4 at Betfred to bits by now. A bit 'Braveheart' to leave it until the last possible moment isn't it?

C'mon The Hurt Locker!


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 09:03:34 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen.

Bit of an anti bok post this surely, looks nailed on now.

Im on@16s, great film and maybe they'll go for this rather than choose between the big 2.

lol yeah [ ] cos im running bad just now!

Try to keep up with the forum bud, and who is winning.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Snowball on March 07, 2010, 09:14:16 PM
Who decides who wins what?


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 09:27:02 PM
AMPAS/the Academy does with the auditing done by PricewaterhouseCoopers. They'll be represented by two guys who'll be holding up holdalls of the tabulated results on the red carpet with British TV coverage of the pre-show starting at 11pm GMT. The ceremony starts at 1am GMT.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Jamier-Host on March 07, 2010, 09:58:02 PM

well technically you need to pay for Sky and also the Movie channels, apart from that, no you dont need to pay for it.

Depends on your ethics I suppose.  A bit of research and you'll find a forum describing how to avoid it....


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: lazaroonie on March 07, 2010, 09:58:36 PM
if avtar wins this then the acadamy will lose a lot of credibility, cos its steaming pile of shite


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 07, 2010, 10:17:24 PM
That Oddschecker link I posted has gone kaput. Thankfully Bestbetting is still up.

http://odds.bestbetting.com/tv--film--music/oscars/best-picture/


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Nico29 on March 07, 2010, 10:32:58 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen.

Bit of an anti bok post this surely, looks nailed on now.

Im on@16s, great film and maybe they'll go for this rather than choose between the big 2.

lol yeah [ ] cos im running bad just now!

Try to keep up with the forum bud, and who is winning.


As with poker i'm not a fan of being results based. But fair play if yr winning and gl 2 u mate, yr posts r always entertaining.

I just often find myself disagreeing with yr assessment of an event, don't mean to sound rude or nothing, diff opinions and all.



Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 10:37:06 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen.

Bit of an anti bok post this surely, looks nailed on now.

Im on@16s, great film and maybe they'll go for this rather than choose between the big 2.

lol yeah [ ] cos im running bad just now!

Try to keep up with the forum bud, and who is winning.


As with poker i'm not a fan of being results based. But fair play if yr winning and gl 2 u mate, yr posts r always entertaining.

I just often find myself disagreeing with yr assessment of an event, don't mean to sound rude or nothing, diff opinions and all.



just aswell you didnt see my posts today then Son.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 11:18:11 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen
.

Fuck it, im in,  £8 @ 19.5

mon the Basterds!!!!


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Maxriddles on March 07, 2010, 11:22:41 PM
Not a hope in hell of winning this, your better off just burning your money!!

Its Avatar or Hurt Locker. (between the two im hoping for Hurt Locker!)

Im a huge fan of Inglorious, watched it a few times, and loved it, but will never happen
.

Fuck it, im in,  £8 @ 19.5

mon the Basterds!!!!

LOL!! The Scottish Dave Stamp of approval, woo hooo!! Dave runs like god, the speculative £20 I put on this morning and wrote off is now going to return me over £400.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 11:46:43 PM
Right, all bets placed, im on:

(Basically, ive laid all the very short prices, and backed a few outsiders)



Animated Feature
Up - Lay @ 1.05 -   +£76 £0

Supporting Actress
MoNique - Lay @ 1.07 -   +£35 £0

Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz - Lay @ 1.05 -   +£32  £0

Leading Actress
Gabourey Sidibe - Back @ 23.0 -   +£66 £0

Leading Actor
Jeff Bridges - Lay @ 1.15 -   +£32 £0

Best Picture
Inglorious Basterds - Back @ 19.5 -   +£156 £0

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino - Back @ 27.0 -   +£80 £0


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: seven2unsuited on March 07, 2010, 11:47:09 PM
hurt locker


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 11:52:25 PM
Rio Bravo


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: seven2unsuited on March 07, 2010, 11:54:31 PM
hurt locker director is 1/7 to win,  apparently a women has never won best director before, fk it, went for 100/1outsider Lee Daniels in precious.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 07, 2010, 11:58:10 PM
hurt locker director is 1/7 to win,  apparently a women has never won best director before, fk it, went for 100/1outsider Lee Daniels in precious.

I too was about to jump in at 200/1, but just missed the price. that was god telling me to avoid it!!!! Im out


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: seven2unsuited on March 07, 2010, 11:59:55 PM
hurt locker director is 1/7 to win,  apparently a women has never won best director before, fk it, went for 100/1outsider Lee Daniels in precious.

I too was about to jump in at 200/1, but just missed the price. that was god telling me to avoid it!!!! Im out

not got a chance of winning now i have backed it.


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Acidmouse on March 08, 2010, 12:33:34 AM
http://mashable.com/2010/03/07/watch-oscars-online-video-stream/


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: ChipRich on March 08, 2010, 01:17:16 AM
decent link here:

http://www.atdhe.net/14551/watch-the-82nd-annual-academy-awards


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Woodsey on March 08, 2010, 01:52:29 AM
I fucking hate American humour and all this mutual arse licking stuff, get on with it FFS..........


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 08, 2010, 02:02:31 AM
I fucking hate American humour and all this mutual arse licking stuff, get on with it FFS..........

So False!

If you dont laugh you'll cry.

Clooney's face was class lol


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 08, 2010, 03:57:40 AM
Why the hell am i even up watching this shit!

Truely car crash Viewing


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: ViiperUK on March 08, 2010, 04:03:03 AM
Why the hell am i even up watching this shit!

Truely car crash Viewing

i know the feeling im watching it yet i should be sleeping coz i've got a job interview tommorowToday. :|


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: Scottish Dave on March 08, 2010, 05:10:03 AM
Right, all bets placed, im on:

(Basically, ive laid all the very short prices, and backed a few outsiders)



Animated Feature
Up - Lay @ 1.05 -   +£76 £0

Supporting Actress
MoNique - Lay @ 1.07 -   +£35 £0

Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz - Lay @ 1.05 -   +£32  £0

Leading Actress
Gabourey Sidibe - Back @ 23.0 -   +£66 £0

Leading Actor
Jeff Bridges - Lay @ 1.15 -   +£32 £0

Best Picture
Inglorious Basterds - Back @ 19.5 -   +£156 £0

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino - Back @ 27.0 -   +£80 £0


All Fav's scooped

No Profit

Night Night


Title: Re: Possible Oscar surprise tomorrow
Post by: stereoman on March 08, 2010, 05:36:48 AM
I'd just like to say bwin are indeed idiots and I hope they got royally turned over by THL fans. I didn't win any of their money but hey, I'm happy.