Title: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 01:49:04 PM The following didn't happen quite like this, but I was in a similar situation last night.
It's a tournament, 7 left, 3 get paid. Blinds are 1000,2000 you have an average stack of 18,000 in the big blind. Small blind has 22,000. You have Qh Ts. It is folded round to the big blind who limps. You decide to check. The flop comes 7d 8c 9d. The small blind bets 3k. You raise up to 13k total on the semi-bluff. Small blind considers what to do before finally calling. The small blind thought you had raised all-in and when they have called the bet, they flip over their hand Jd 8d. They aplogise for the mistake and action continues as normal. Turn brings a Ks SB checks, you do so also. River brings a blank, the 2s SB checks... There is 30k in the pot. The small blind knows you are aware they have Jd 8d. What would you do with your last remaining 3k? Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: lvlarc_uk on December 17, 2005, 02:07:27 PM Well I cant see him folding now, he will hope his pair is good and call. So I'd check and muck.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: mikkyT on December 17, 2005, 02:07:59 PM I'd have bet the turn
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: NoflopsHomer on December 17, 2005, 02:10:53 PM You've only got 3k left, he'll call no matter what, you can't bluff here.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: mikkyT on December 17, 2005, 02:11:46 PM Do'h I missed that line.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 02:14:16 PM I'd have bet the turn Then you will get called as your opponent has 11-1 on it and knows she has outs if she's behind. You'll be putting your last remaining tournament chips in knowing you are just over 18% to win the pot. The only thing a bet on the turn here gets you is a tank-slap. Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: mikkyT on December 17, 2005, 02:14:58 PM I missed the line that said you only have 3k left!
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: mikkyT on December 17, 2005, 02:16:06 PM Was this against Tess? Or another woman there last night?
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 02:20:01 PM I missed the line that said you only have 3k left! Fair doos, I'll put the talc away. Was this against Tess? Or another woman there last night? Another woman. Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: doubleup on December 17, 2005, 02:27:29 PM Hmmmm interesting one - I think that you've got to bet the river if your opponent is inexperienced. Do they know exactly how many chips you have left? They don't have to fold too often to make this a profitable bet. I don't think you have much tournament equity to lose anyway as you are going to have to survive a few allins to make the money.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 06:23:49 PM In the actual hand the river card was the 2d not the 2s so I got away from the hand with 3k left. She wisely checked the river and I mucked my cards. There was no showdown as I didn't check the river, I folded, so they were mucked face down. I told the table later that I had a made straight with 56o.
I thought while the turn was being dealt that it would be a good idea to bluff the river if she missed her flush. My reasons were, my remaining chips were in small denominations so they may have been percieved as being a larger amount. If I placed them into the pot quickly and confidently on the river she may well have passed. She was already feeling a little silly to have turned over her hand when I was not all-in, I think she might have quickly folded to my bet to avoid any further embarrasment by calling with potentially the worst hand when I knew what she had. When she took so long to call on the flop I felt that she was of the mindset that she was drawing and needed to improve to win. I estimated that there was around a 30% chance she would pass if I bet and that was the plan. Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: Newmanseye on December 17, 2005, 06:41:22 PM Tank, I think if you bet the turn she would have folded, She was not aware of the poker math involved in the decision and would have folded to the bet as you already know what she has. She would not want to give you the other 3k. Just my observation as when she turned her cards over she completely lost faith in her hand and probably would have mucked it.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 06:48:56 PM Tank, I think if you bet the turn she would have folded, She was not aware of the poker math involved in the decision and would have folded to the bet as you already know what she has. She would not want to give you the other 3k. Just my observation as when she turned her cards over she completely lost faith in her hand and probably would have mucked it. Not on the turn when she could still hit 14 cards to improve her hand. She wasn't THAT tight weak. Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: Newmanseye on December 17, 2005, 07:52:23 PM I am not sure mate she made some fishy plays last night and I think if you threw your chips in , she would have read it as " shit i am beat", we will never know, but Just my observation.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 07:59:15 PM Mikky suggested the same thing, I already had the hand talced up and ready but he said it was coz he misread the post.
You can have it instead.... ;chieften; THWACK Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: Newmanseye on December 17, 2005, 08:08:22 PM All I am saying is, I think she would have made the wrong decision and folded to the 3 k all in. I really do, she was a weak player in that regard, I just think you would have got in to her head if you pushed your chips, she would have thought she was beat.
She would have bricked it mate, again its all hypothetical but I am sure she was so gutted by turning over her cards that the fold would have came. Again I THINK she would have made the wrong play and folded. Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 08:09:12 PM Do you not think I would have been better doing this on the river?
I know she mighta made the wrong play there. But folding with 14 outs to a better hand with 11-1 pot odds on the turn? Come on, it's not Christmas yet. Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: Newmanseye on December 17, 2005, 08:11:12 PM nope, I think by the river its too late, you get in her head, on the turn mate, Its just my opinion, I even think a wee bit of speach play would have helped you a country mile too.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: thetank on December 17, 2005, 08:13:07 PM I'm not convinced, putting my money in on the turn is akin to pissing it against a wall.
Title: Re: To bluff or not to bluff. Post by: Newmanseye on December 17, 2005, 08:17:31 PM fair enough, I am basing this on physical reads so I can be wrong, Its just my opinion BUt the way she acted after the cards were turned, it looked to me like she gave up on the hand.
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