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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: Newportlad on April 19, 2010, 07:58:46 PM



Title: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Newportlad on April 19, 2010, 07:58:46 PM
APAT UK Championships at The Vic, London

Buyin £78


Number of Runners 152
Number of Runners remaining 13


Blind levels/Clock length  3K/6K/300 ante 40min blinds
Payouts are very top heavy. I'm guaranteed £225 at this point. 4th - 10th pays £600. 3rd £1200 2nd £2000 and 1st £3500 + GUKPT seat + entry into end of season tournament.

Your stack size: 250K near chip leader

Stack Sizes of relevant opposition: 110K

Folds round to myself in the SB.  I have  5c 5d

BB is a young lad who has been pretty LAG. I make a raise to 20K, aiming to just take the blinds and move onto the next hand.  He now shoves all in. So i have to call 90K to win about a 200K pot.   If i call and win the hand, i will have about 370K and be the chip leader, and in a strong position to win the tournament. If i call and lose, i will be on 140K which is about average stack.  If i fold, i think it sends out the wrong signals that i can be re-raised off the pot.

So, should i call or fold?





Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: outragous76 on April 19, 2010, 08:36:27 PM
Always have a plan before u do something

Call if opponent has been laggy


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: MANTIS01 on April 19, 2010, 08:44:28 PM
Raise pre is too big. You say you just want to take the blinds and that thought process manifests itself in your raise size. Don't expect your oppo to miss that. Play more assured poker and raise 15k instead and have a more positive mentality to playing a pot. Raising 15k costs you less when you fold as well as you don't need to gamble half your big stack on a flip at best here.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: StuartHopkin on April 19, 2010, 10:04:41 PM
Defo 15kish pre, 20k is way to big.

Its a snap fold now for me. I keep getting told its a call but I just dont see it. Were 50/50 at best and probably 20% a quarter of the time.



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: George2Loose on April 19, 2010, 10:51:14 PM
shove pre


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: LeKnave on April 19, 2010, 11:00:24 PM
shove pre


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: mondatoo on April 19, 2010, 11:01:28 PM
Raise is to much as said but as played I'm never folding a pair in this spot when I'm getting more than two to one to call where it's going to be a flip a good % of the time.The fact that this is an apat event with an extremely top heavy payout makes this is even more of a snap.



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: marcin123 on April 19, 2010, 11:11:21 PM
blind on blind this is always a shove...


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: NigDawG on April 19, 2010, 11:24:09 PM
imo the raise size is too small

next time make it 110k pre


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: mondatoo on April 19, 2010, 11:29:59 PM
imo the raise size is too small

next time make it 110k pre

By too much I just mean if we are raising and not shoving then don't raise so much,obv shoving>>>>>>raising makes life easier


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Newportlad on April 19, 2010, 11:38:18 PM
Thanks for the feedback guys.  I consider it one of my strengths in picking up reads/tells from people. If i shove pre, then i have no information at all about his hand before i risk 110K.  On the other hand, if i make it 15K and he just calls, then im in a quandry, as im almost certainly not going to like the board, and be out of position.   Still not sure about this one.
As it turns out i called fairly quickly his shove, and he turned over  Aspades Th.  which turned into a full house.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: BulldozerD on April 19, 2010, 11:40:10 PM
i don't really like folding pairs BvB, esp raise/folding them


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: George2Loose on April 20, 2010, 01:33:14 AM
Thanks for the feedback guys.  I consider it one of my strengths in picking up reads/tells from people. If i shove pre, then i have no information at all about his hand before i risk 110K.  On the other hand, if i make it 15K and he just calls, then im in a quandry, as im almost certainly not going to like the board, and be out of position.   Still not sure about this one.
As it turns out i called fairly quickly his shove, and he turned over  Aspades Th.  which turned into a full house.

So you pick up reads but you called fairly quickly anyway?

As it is I think this is just one of those times where the money was going in anyway


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: marcin123 on April 20, 2010, 02:12:27 AM
Thanks for the feedback guys.  I consider it one of my strengths in picking up reads/tells from people. If i shove pre, then i have no information at all about his hand before i risk 110K.  On the other hand, if i make it 15K and he just calls, then im in a quandry, as im almost certainly not going to like the board, and be out of position.   Still not sure about this one.
As it turns out i called fairly quickly his shove, and he turned over  Aspades Th.  which turned into a full house.
it plays itself out anyway then... you shove he calls... nothing you can do...


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: nirvana on April 20, 2010, 07:00:44 AM
Why do we build a stack that we can win with to then spew 110k with 55 ? I don't get it.
 


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: NigDawG on April 20, 2010, 07:22:52 AM
Why do we build a stack that we can win with to then spew 110k with 55 ? I don't get it.
 

hint: it has something to do with how often he folds to a shove

and also how often he shoves over any other raise


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: MANTIS01 on April 20, 2010, 09:24:18 AM
This is apat right? I don't think you need to be getting big chunks of your stack into pots to make progress in this competition. In fact giving inferior oppos a chance of a flipping vs you is prob to your overall detriment.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Simon Galloway on April 20, 2010, 09:54:24 AM
Why do we build a stack that we can win with to then spew 110k with 55 ? I don't get it.
 

I wonder how many times in our next tournament I can get that into the conversation?


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: TightEnd on April 20, 2010, 10:06:44 AM
Just two points

a) the payout isn't top heavy. <30% to the winner, 17% to second

b) the field isn't of inferior quality. Standard has improved a lot


oh and c)

Oppo here looked like Harry Potter, in case that sways anyone's analysis


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Gamblor21 on April 20, 2010, 10:48:29 AM
Just two points

a) the payout isn't top heavy. <30% to the winner, 17% to second

b) the field isn't of inferior quality. Standard has improved a lot


oh and c)

Oppo here looked like Harry Potter, in case that sways anyone's analysis


The payout is top heavy Rich, all the money is in the top 3. 9th to 4th get the same prize so I would class that as top heavy.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: StuartHopkin on April 20, 2010, 10:52:18 AM
Plus the GUKPT seat makes 1st a lot more than 2nd.



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: GreekStein on April 20, 2010, 02:08:27 PM
Just two points

a) the payout isn't top heavy. <30% to the winner, 17% to second

b) the field isn't of inferior quality. Standard has improved a lot


oh and c)

Oppo here looked like Harry Potter, in case that sways anyone's analysis


The payout is top heavy Rich, all the money is in the top 3. 9th to 4th get the same prize so I would class that as top heavy.

agreed.

and the standard is still weak.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: nirvana on April 20, 2010, 06:01:55 PM
Why do we build a stack that we can win with to then spew 110k with 55 ? I don't get it.
 

I wonder how many times in our next tournament I can get that into the conversation?

lol, I'm trying to change.

I can't see a problem with limping here, leaves us lots of options pre and potentially post flop


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Newportlad on April 20, 2010, 07:52:32 PM
Thanks for the feedback guys.  I consider it one of my strengths in picking up reads/tells from people. If i shove pre, then i have no information at all about his hand before i risk 110K.  On the other hand, if i make it 15K and he just calls, then im in a quandry, as im almost certainly not going to like the board, and be out of position.   Still not sure about this one.
As it turns out i called fairly quickly his shove, and he turned over  Aspades Th.  which turned into a full house.

So you pick up reads but you called fairly quickly anyway?

As it is I think this is just one of those times where the money was going in anyway

Yep, the way he announced/put his chips in and his LAG image, made me pretty sure he didnt have an overpair. Therefore i have to call.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Newportlad on April 20, 2010, 07:57:09 PM
Just two points

a) the payout isn't top heavy. <30% to the winner, 17% to second

b) the field isn't of inferior quality. Standard has improved a lot


oh and c)

Oppo here looked like Harry Potter, in case that sways anyone's analysis


The payout is top heavy Rich, all the money is in the top 3. 9th to 4th get the same prize so I would class that as top heavy.

and 1st gets GUKPT Seat and entry into end of Season tournament (approx 20 players) where winner gets £20K sponsorship for next year.  Definately have to play for the win in this.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: StuartHopkin on April 20, 2010, 10:38:37 PM
You say you have to call because you dont think he has a pair, why do you want to flip with someone who is probs not very good?

Your playing for the win and, I've not played you, but your APAT results would suggest you have a huge edge.

You destroy your advantage and flip a coin for who stays in.



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: AlexMartin on April 21, 2010, 12:19:26 AM
if the standard is weak i think this is a ridic spot to bet call off 1/2 our stack, not too happy about shoving either. I mean we lose so much postflop flexibility if we lose this bvb coup



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: MC on April 21, 2010, 12:42:10 AM
I'm not folding this blind on blind.

Shove pre>>>Raise call>>>Raise fold


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: byronkincaid on April 21, 2010, 01:50:30 PM
what is a good shove range here please? you are going by Nash (which includes 54s and 89o)? we are shoving AA?




Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: AlexMartin on April 21, 2010, 01:54:42 PM
what is a good shove range here please? you are going by Nash (which includes 54s and 89o)? we are shoving AA?




we rarely need to balance in mtt's is the general consensus i think.



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: NigDawG on April 21, 2010, 03:52:34 PM
what is a good shove range here please? you are going by Nash (which includes 54s and 89o)? we are shoving AA?




in this comp vs this opposition i wouldn't worry too much about balancing. i mean when we open jam i'd imagine villain is calling 14% tops. AA and i'd quite like villain to put the chips in with 30%. also AA plays better on the flops...


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: MANTIS01 on April 21, 2010, 08:22:35 PM
The push is your range, low to middle, because you never jam top. Top you raise 15k. Even 15k puts a lot of heat on villain who'll have a serious decision to make about the hand, so I don't think he pushes in this live scenario as readily as people think. Telling the table we're currently splashing chips around with the lower parts of our range is bad because they're more likely to take a shot vs us. Which is good for them. There's lots of uncontested pots we can take down in this scenario with our advantages so who needs to bully so obviously and get them playing back at us? On-line I prob would push thou.


Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Delboy on April 21, 2010, 09:02:25 PM
At this stage in an APAT you rarely get a call if you shove in this spot, and I very much doubt you would get a call from A10. Even if he is a child wizard!



Title: Re: Thoughts please. Live Hand from APAT UK Championships
Post by: Donko on April 23, 2010, 08:38:10 AM
Shove pre.