blonde poker forum

you have a top 15 stack with 200 left money starts at 125


do you surrender on flop unless you hit the turn or shove?

PokerStars Game #43200674994: Tournament #307010977, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI (350/700) - 2010/04/26 4:18:48 WET [2010/04/25 23:18:48 ET]
Table '307010977 71' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Gregory06 (6666 in chips)
Seat 2: Fishlake (44199 in chips)
Seat 3: SycawayAce (17481 in chips)
Seat 4: kaze01 (19006 in chips)
Seat 5: mrbaquit (58436 in chips)
Seat 6: lynch0408 (26884 in chips)
Seat 7: Ironside (59588 in chips)
Seat 8: CPGR (29261 in chips)
Seat 9: bobs64 (27284 in chips)
Gregory06: posts the ante 85
Fishlake: posts the ante 85
SycawayAce: posts the ante 85
kaze01: posts the ante 85
mrbaquit: posts the ante 85
lynch0408: posts the ante 85
Ironside: posts the ante 85
CPGR: posts the ante 85
bobs64: posts the ante 85
CPGR: posts small blind 350
bobs64: posts big blind 700
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ironside [Kc As]
Gregory06: folds
Fishlake: raises 1400 to 2100
SycawayAce: folds
kaze01: folds
mrbaquit: raises 2800 to 4900
lynch0408: folds
Ironside: raises 16800 to 21700
Gregory06 is sitting out
CPGR: folds
bobs64: folds
Fishlake: folds
Gregory06 is connected
Gregory06 has returned
mrbaquit: calls 16800
*** FLOP *** [6h 3h Td]
mrbaquit: checks

With stacks as they are check behind and snap call on future streets if villain bets.

Value shoving isn't terrible.

Folding would be.

as played i shove here about a 100% of the time

I probably flat call the 3 bet pre and give up if I miss.  If you want to raise pre can't see why you don't just shove it all in tbh.

Am I reading our hand right here?

We've got AK that's missed and we're talking about value shoving??

Are we thinking oppo has called a cold 4 bet with AQ and will snap our shove?

Maybe I'm going to learn something here but I just don't get it.

Personally I raise less pre to about 14k ish. Check behind flop and totally give up unless I hit without some serious info on oppo.

Think I'm with Matt on this one.

We're going up against the other big stack at the table who's called a massive re-raise pre-flop, and people want us to 'value call' if the villain puts more in - with A-high.

What are we putting him on, and are we expecting him to fold if we shove?

I'm with you matt. was confused when I first read it and was hoping the thread would develop so I could figure out why people are looking to shove. I don't get it

EDIT: sigh, as I post this I see that I'm also agreeing with dan. fml

Sorry mate. 

:D

I hate the size of the 4-bet pre.

this, made things soooo awkward for yourself now. i you bet its prob gunna have to be a bet call.

Because we've got position and a very strong hand.

Shoving makes our opponents life easy. He snaps if he's beating us, probably calls QQ & AK to race or chop with us and folds everything else.

We're too deep to shove, let's see a flop and take it from there.

However, given Iron's raise size he might as well have shoved because he's not leaving any wiggle room after the flop. Any bet is now a committing one as the pot is more than our stack.

Flat pre is fine here but not necessarily giving up if we miss. By flatting we're deep enough to play a bit of poker and might even win a pot without the best hand.

because we've got about a million billion bigblinds

yeah I didn't phrase that very well. I meant if you're going to raise to 21k you might as well shove, coz you're pretty much committing yourself to the hand anyway.

if we only had 85 tho i'd be shoving

lolz, I read that as 'if we're going to fuck it up we may as well fuck it up royally'

lolz

well no reads here (and they would be useful) but i wouldn't be cold 4betting pre without a plan (not keen on sizing but meh) for what i want to do if called or jammed on.

if you aren't sure what to do here i'd prefer an open fold pre without more information, no matter how nitty it sounds.

When you've made it so big pre, i cant see why you'd be thinking of folding any flop tbh.

I take it you were calling a shove if he jammed pre (instead he donked off 1/3 his stack) so get it now.

Pre-flop i
RRRaise to 12ish>Flat>Fold>Jam

raise less pre imo... make it 12999 and call a jam... as played you gotta shove the flop...

the reason for the 21k was to try and get them to shove or fold with 2 big stacks involved with me

i didnt count on the flat call

looking back a smaller raise would of been better

How many hands do you realistically 4bet vs 2 big stacks in this spot? Prob 3. So with such a polarized range I don't know how you get it in vs worse hands preflop. Flatting the 3bet offers you a better opportunity to get it in preflop vs a range you have a fighting chance against. If our strat is to quit if we don't hit then why not flat the 3bet and make that strat significantly cheaper? I do agree with the smaller 4bet though if that's your preference because I fear the bigger 4bet narrows our range from 3 hands to 1. Your 4bet size is designed to get them to shove (which they don't do with worse) or fold (which you wouldn't want them to do holding A-A), so yeah bad bet size.

I have a brief and rather reducitionist explanation. Starts with assumption that pot is so big and villain has so little left compared to pot that all thoughts of folding are to be put out of our mind.

We're against either a donk or a non donk.


Non donk

All his chips are going in the middle pretty much all the time (given a nondonks likely holdings , it's tough to imagine a scenario where he's both a nondonk who took that line pre and he'll check it down).
Given that we can't fold there's not much of a problem in putting the chips in first.
We've nothing to lose as it's makes no difference. We can just look at scenario when opponent is a donk when deciding whether to bet or not.

Donk

This is glorious, we have abs. no read on opponent but because of above we can proceed as if he's defo a donk.
Ridic thin value bets possible when you have to call anyway and likelyhood of opponent betting is very high.
AK could be good...



I prefer to check call here, but value betting isn't horrible.

Sound reasoning but I still don't like it.

We've made a mistake by raising too much pre and now we're going to compound that error by gifting our oppo the rest of our stack.

For the reasons you've stated we know we're getting called because of the size of the pot and how much our oppo has put in there. I know we're hoping he's a donk but I don't think we can rely on that here. Surely even the very worst players don't call this 4 bet with a hand that we're beating?

fyp imo

I'll agree to disagree.

Certainly agree that line pre is tez though. It looks like we don't want to play the hand but we don't want to fold. It's like a ridic overshove and telegraphs our hand as either AK or JJ. :)

13-14k pre.

As played check back turn. I think jamming this flop is setting money on fire ~95% of the time after he calls off this much pre