blonde poker forum

Blinds are 500/1000 with a 100 ante

Hero stack 38,000
Button stack 30,000
Small blind stack 27,000
Villain stack (Big Blind) 52,000

Hero is in cutoff with  Ad 3c

History between me and BB, Villain 3-bet my Utg+1 open on the bubble I 4bet he folded. Next hand he 3-bets me small I peel and decide to check raise a J-9-3 x 2 spade flop he jams I fold.

Hero opens for 2244
Button calls
Small blind folds
Big Blind calls

Flop
 Kd 6c 3d
my thinking board seems perfect to c-bet relatively dry. And I expect to take down the pot alot of the time.

Villain checks
Hero bets 4244
Button folds
Villain raises to 11277
Hero?

I really don't think he is check raising me here with a king I think the only King he could check raise is KQ. I really narrow his range down to air, sets and flush draws. I wasn't sure what to do in this spot and I hate the thought of peeling. Is this a fold or should we be jamming on villain expecting him to fold alot of the time? I was really expecting him to play back at me here!

Both plays would be fine.Never peeling.

jam for value imo.

sucks if it's varico and he's peeled  6d 8d

Either raise or fold pre IMO.

He did raise

Is this the 300f?

seems like easy call flop call turn if theres only hands you beat in his range. no need to jam for protection since he likely only has 6 outs and if flush card comes hes still jamming that with his whole range to try and rep it+ we have Ad anyway so fds far less likely (plus we can hit if he does actually have flush).  jamming does the old fold out worse get called by better (other than a FD which we are flipping with anyway...) and folding is bad when we are clearly miles ahead of his range.  given villains description/history i doubt he just gives up when a blank turn comes down

pretty interesting hand given dynamic etc, would like to see what more people think!

I really dont like jamming here. I think you are getting called here way too often by big draws with overs like  4d 5d,  6dx to have enough equity against his calling range. Your diamond redraw is fairly irrelevant here i think as you wil have bigger problems than just a FD in villians hand.

I might be a nit here but i think i would actually just fold the flop here. Calling seems like the worst option but you will be facing a shove on basically any turn with about 25k in the pot and you only having a pot sized bet behind.

If you were deeper I like 4 bet fold a lot as a line. but thats clearly not an option with your stack. Despite anticipating a move on villians part on this board, i think this is a clear fold as there are no turn cards you are going to like and villian is unlikely to shut down on the turn. You might be folding the best hand here but you will never be better than 50% if the money goes in.

Also, why do you think villian would check raise complete air here a bunch? Doesn't seem like the board to bluff air as its a super wet board and you will hardly fold hands like Ad Kx, a flush draw with an over, sets or else.

so yea. obv fold for me and wait for a better spot.

has villain ever flatted pre with AA/KK/AK? as played flat and call it off seems good seeing as he reps like very very few combos since we hold an ace and a 3 and severely cut his value combos. I cant be arsed to do a breakdown, but he reps very few value hands, given he wont always play 66 or KQ this way, so folding v a decent player is gonna be bad. I dunno whats best though, prolly jam? since like 0 draws are gonna get the price if we ship?

DOH!

Shoving is more tempting then....and cry when he calls.

wow maybe thats me but i would NEVER fold a decent draw such as OESD + FD or purr + FD here in villians spot getting better than 2:1 on the flop. If we can rule out that he check raises complete air here (which im pretty sure we can if hes a solid player - the board is just awful to generate ANY fold equity) then his range will include hands like 6's, 3's, AK, 4d5d, 6dx, AA, KK and a few weaker Kings maybe JJ and QQ and small FD's. He would obv fold JJ QQ KQ KJ typa hands on a shove but i doubt he mucks TPTK or better.

If i can be bothered later on I'll see how much equity you actually need there against his checkraising/calling  range but i think ur in fairly bad shape.

Hmm I very much doubt we can and would in fact say that any solid/competent player would be bluff raising this bluff a great deal with anything from ATo to 78cc and more.  From villains perspective, think what hands can continue here compared with what we are cbetting with, it's flush draws, sets and kings.  And they don't make up a big % of our range IMO


i'd say these are pretty unlikely to be in villains flatting range given dynamic between the 2 it's so likely that hero gets paranoid in CO vs BB dynamic and 4 bet jams a ton of hands that it would be incred profitable to just 3 bet his nutted hands

Anyone just fold pre given history? Or is that too nitty?

misread heros stacksize, doh

doubt he ever has better that often tho and our hand feels kinda weak to just give him 2 more cards worth of equity. there is now like 23k in the pot and 31k in our stack? think i'd happily take that now and reduce our variance.

We can definitely rule out AA, KK, AK, QQ, JJ type hands in Villains range he would definitely 3-bet these against me hoping to make me 4bet jam on him. I just think peeling would be tez and he is 1st to act and is just gonna jam the turn on us so often, then what do we do if the diamond gets there or an over like a Queen or a Jack/Ten hits. Pairs he could of made with his flush draw and now he has the best hand and we are pretty much guessing if our 3 is good.

Was never planning on folding the turn... Just think it's more profitable to call flop call turn than just jam it in on the flop and fold out all his complete air hands (and it's fair to say there's a decent amount of these) or flip/be miles behind the rest of his range

Ok so lets say we call the turn comes a blank non-scare card. Villain checks we have a pot sized bet left, we Jam it in? I don't mind this at all, but I'm just not sure if Villain is going to check often enough for this to be a profitable line.

skolsuper makes decent point, I think given the read there's a good chance he just bombs it in on any turn to stop himself from getting bluffed again.  Nevertheless, jamming the flop is certainly the next best option IMO.  I think folding has to be out of the question!

its pretty crazy that if you posted this hand 5 years ago people would genuinely laugh at that statement,  nlh nearly a solved problem?

dont know exactly why we taking huge risky high varience lines here vs a villain with history who is not folding much.

because edges are far smaller nowadays?

This may be incorrect thinking by me and I get that a lot of his range inc. air but with bottom pair if I think I'm ahead here I'm not looking to peel and then call any turn ? I'm shipping it in now and happy to take down a decent sized pot.I don't see why folding here is that bad when his range inc all small pairs plus draws that we're flipping against at best ? Look forward to responses of where I'm wrong in my thinking,and Ruperts to say I'm tez :)

Also if we are in villains shoes would we not c/r this board with kx as it looks like air a lot and it's a dry board vs aggro oppo who's capable of shipping it in light ?

it is a bit off topic as the main question is jam or fold but i think I would play a delayed c-bet here. I know people are going to say you lose value from draws not betting but BECAUSE villain will hardly fold most of his range here on the flop i think you are better of checking the flop behind and if the turn blanks you can still barrel and maybe even valuebet super thin on the river if he looks you up with strong A high type of hands.

i also don't quite see the reasoning behind bombing the flop "to lower variance" with bottom pair against a guy whose calling range has us absolutely crushed. Still think complete air with no draws and just overs will only make a small percentage of villains check raising range here.

Also, if you decide to peel, why wouldn't he shove basically any turn. He will hardly check fold his air and certainly shove the rest.

just dont think you will see him c/r his pairs. saw it mentioned earlier somewhere ITT he could have QQ, JJ, TT etc like wtf thats way off (he would almost certainly 3bet call these pre for a start). the only pair i could see him having is specifically  6d 5d,  6d 7d or  6d 8d

66 could be there but its bloody difficult making sets

his check raising range on this flop is basically made up of probs 15 combos of flush draws (only 3 of these have us crushed) and air. alot of air. i don't think a shove is even that close tbh.

Bet more on the flop, we represent our hand better if someone wants to peel one with TTish hands, and mainly to reduce the frequency of his bluffraises (which you seem to be making this the case).   If this is your usual cbet then no need to bet much more.

And easy fold to his raise
 unless you're super sure this is a stone cold bluff, in which case you should jam your stack in, obviously to pick up the 20-30k in dead manies, but hey, your shove would be for ~32k total, so he ain't folding much if he has a piece, and a decent piece on this board has you in pretty bad shape

finally :D

+1
explain

wow just wow at some of the posts

post what you think because ur a geeeeeeeeenius and still my hero

It just totally depends what level you think Villain is on and what level he thinks you are on. Check raising K high boards because they are dry is like 3 years old, so playing back on these boards is 2 years old, raise calling any pair on these boards is 1 year old. So work out how many years behind poker trends villain is.

And people suggesting Villain shoves his whole air range on turn after we have bet called this flop surely are on a windup? Especially since we have the Ad.

I don't know any mtt regs but this guy was called TwinMSU or something? Perhaps your familiar with his game Dubai?

Dont know him mate im afraid. Middy is the man to ask, he has probably railed/played every mtt player on earth

do u suggest he is ACTUALLY just going to shut down and check fold the turn after checkraising the flop? lol im sorry but that is just out of question. If he actually decides to run a bluff here it will not end after 1 barrel. He has no other option than shoving the turn especially cause flatting the flop would look so weak on our part. We would jam ALL our nut hands on the flop so he has every incentive to bomb the turn and maybe get you to fold a part of your range.

Have u ever played this tournament?

I mean this with all due respect but this is almost how English people who learn French words but dont understand the correct context of them sound to the French.

At least the bolded part made me smile.

no i havn't but all our assumptions are based on either a thinking player who will be capable of twobarreling a bluff (although i still disagree on him having much air in his range here on this board texture) OR a complete moron who will have even LESS air in his range and will then for sure shove any draw, any king or any other hand with possible showdown value.

It is irrelevant how u rate the player imo because the his flop/turn line will hardly differ. I doubt either type is just going to check fold the turn if we peel OR lay down a decent draw OR a king on the flop.

we dont have a call flop range? calling is pretty much the WORST option.

It appears i will have less air in my range if i was Villain than yourself. Does that make me a complete moron?

ok lol im giving up. this is getting more and more rediculous with every post. i'm not sure if you don't understand that you are not in very good shape here if either getting called (which is very likely) on the flop or shoved on on the turn (given a pretty useless call on the flop). are you still going to call the turn of for the rest of your stack not having gained any information or improved in any way (as there is no turn card that is going to help you apart from a 3 maybe).

Please break your equity against villains range down for me and prove me wrong?

Its definitely me that doesnt understand. As rEdiculous as that may well be.

"If you think they are fucking about, just stick it in 'em"
- Lawrence Gosney, 2008

TwinMSU is a reg.  Prolly a bad idea to post notes on him on a public forum tho

Flops that look ideal to c-bet for hero also look ideal to c-r bluff for villain, also stacks/positions are right for this. The SPR and our vulnerable hand makes this one of those times I don't care about folding out worse. And anyway there's a debate to be had about whether calling flop/turn and showing our hand is the most profitable move for us in the game overall on top of this this hands' individual variance.

Seems like Villain is always going to have plenty of air in his range, we have a pair plus decent backdoor equity, ship it.