blonde poker forum

First hand of the $10,000 Main Event. (30k in chips 50-100 blinds)

Everyone passes to the button who makes it 300 to play.

You have AKo in the sb and decide to reraise to 1000.

The bb folds and the button goes into the tank.

As he rechecks his cards you see he has AQ suited.

He decides to shove allin.

Call or Pass?

Another question.

In this spot should Phil Ivey call or pass?

insta super snappy fist pump snap roll on the floor cant believe my luck call

noone is good enough to pass up a 70/30 equity shot................................ except phil  ivey (he would call too though)

I remember a similar question on Paul Phillips blog, someone said he was good player so he should pass he replied he was a good player because he called with hands like this.

I'd call.

It's a clear call, no one has anywhere near a big enough edge to fold here.

i cawllllllll

So many players claim to have a 300%+ edge in the main event, is taking a 70/30 worth it when they think they have an even bigger edge than this.

FWIW I would instacall.

Not if it was suited, that always wins

although the play suggests the btn is a retard. if it was the first hand how would ivey be able to calculate his edge over villain or does he just do it against the field?

calllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Obv call.

Should Ivey call is a tad more interesting because he prob has biggest edge ever but would he, yes.

I heard a funny story last year at the WSOP.

Allen Cunningham was at the ft of one the circuit events just before the series started.

An old guy said to him "I know you're a great player Allenn, but just how much do you think your ticket for the main event of the wsop is worth?"

AC thought for a few seconds and said, "hard to say, but I reckon about $80,000"

The old guy said nothing and all was forgotten until when sitting down after the dinner break the old guy tossed a huge brick of money to Cunningham.

"Here's $50,000, I want to buy 50% of you at the wsop".

Cunningham laughed and tossed it straight back.

Surely if he thinks he's got a 1000% expected ROI Cunningham would turn down a 70/30 shot in the first hand.

Camel on a fishing expedition here.

Keith dont you think your confusing his ITM% with ROI?

Come on, he was about to land a few

Bracelet winners itt.

the reason ROIs get so high is because you can repeatedly take large edges, not because you take one large (even huge) edge early on.  edges are huge late on in the WSOP because the mugs make such massive errors and thats where lots of the ROI comes from and obviously in order to get to these edges you need chips

flat pre

This

Ding ding ding.

We have the correct answer.

Is the correct answer call or fold?

I can't tell which Rupert is advocating!

What would Joe Cada do? He was the world champ afterall :P

Call. (I think)

Would be a better question if you said he had 89s or something, obv a fistpump call here...

yes bite his arm off.  doubt i'm good enough to fold 88

On my table in the 25k at Bellagio I instacall. (Amak, Haxton, Zee Justin, Mizrachi, USCPhildo etc)

In the wsop main event I prolly pass.

That's no good, you don't get to see his hand then...

obv call, and call with 22+ aswell.

ak is obv call, 22 though, really?

Maybe he didn't want arbboy to think he was a beggar

Well you're getting 1.15 to 1 to make the call with 22 and you've got 49.79% equity against AQs so its a +EV call.

Some people will probably say how thin an edge this is and that we'd want to 'wait for a better spot'

Most people don't understand how big an edge over the field you have to have to be able to pass up edges such as these

against a guy who has played the hand in this way, 4bet shoving 30k at 50/100 w/AQs I think we have a big enough edge to fold.

people who say they call 22 here are crazy.

But he's only one player at a 9 handed table, and in a field of over 7000 players.

Having a look at pokerstove maybe 22 is a bit of a stretch, so lets say 66. I assume that everyone in the folding 22 camp is also folding 66.

66 vs AQs you're 52% to win if you call.

For simplicities sake we'll say that there is a field of of 4096 (which is 2^12). So to have all of the chips in the tournament you have to double up 13 times. An average player in the field has a 1/4096 chance of winning, so wins 0.024% of the time they play the tournament. If you take your 52% to win every time (0.52^12) you win the tournament 0.039%

You've increased your chances of winning the tournament by 62.5% which obviously is huge.

would you call yourself a "math guy"  :D

I've printed out Rupert's post and put it on my bedroom wall.

Well, only in the sense that imo its essential to being as profitable as you possibly can be as a player. obv none of this maths is actually appplicable while you're sitting at the table, its just a reasonably simple way of showing how huge a gain you're passing up by folding in these spots.

the correct answer is here:

http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer-magazines/65576-18-22/articles/15093-to-flip-or-not-to-flip

2005

Agree with everything skolsuper sais (put this in your signature quoted by me LDO) especially about the calling range. I think our equity being double in a 1500 tournament is totally different as its a harsher clock and the main event is much easier to obtain chips by winning hands at non showdown/non all in pots as the 3bet shove stack sizes come in far earlier.

I guess the main event is a different tournament to most, but do you fold the QQ pre vs AK in a regular tournament? (Stars 100r as an example)

Not really 100% convinced that these huge ROIs are attainable. Obviously we'll never have a relevant sample size as it only happens once a year but from watching the final tables over the last 10 years it really hasn't been the case that really deep structure has resulted in the best players getting all the money, or at least to any lesser extent than a regular tournament

Sure ever fold 57/43 edge under regular conditions.

lol sure is a good use of proportion



These are the %'s you should be concentrating on

To be fair to writer of article, it was 2005 and he said call. In 2010 we're still saying call.