blonde poker forum

Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: moonandback on August 05, 2010, 06:27:57 PM



Title: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: moonandback on August 05, 2010, 06:27:57 PM
here it is ii'm 5th of 5 do i call here with the chance to triple up or fold and look for a better spot?
seat 2 has been pretty active shoved previous hand and 4-5 others in the last 20.

PokerStars Game #47737209375: Tournament #298382285, $6.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2010/08/05 14:01:56 WET [2010/08/05 9:01:56 ET]
Table '298382285 5' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Tankster81 (15942 in chips)
Seat 2: 2_Basic (11655 in chips)
Seat 6: moon&back (6888 in chips)
Seat 7: vit0783 (24775 in chips)
Seat 9: jhon070 (8240 in chips)
Tankster81: posts the ante 75
2_Basic: posts the ante 75
moon&back: posts the ante 75
vit0783: posts the ante 75
jhon070: posts the ante 75
moon&back: posts small blind 800
vit0783: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to moon&back [9s 9c]
jhon070: folds
Tankster81: raises 3200 to 4800
2_Basic: raises 6780 to 11580 and is all-in
moon&back: ???


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: outragous76 on August 05, 2010, 06:39:37 PM
get em in  - tankster can still fold then its a great spot


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: SuuPRlim on August 05, 2010, 06:43:02 PM
Iv been identified as a SNG fish before so apologies if this is BS. Im pretty sure this is a pure maths/ICM thing.

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    32.839%     32.39%    00.45%        7383039956    101896127.00   { 9c9s }
Hand 1:    32.054%     30.85%    01.21%        7030578226    275442335.00   { 77+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2:    35.107%     33.89%    01.21%        7725245696    276695172.00   { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }

In idenitfing these ranges I figured the guy opening would be reasonable (top 13-15%) and the 3bettor will be SLIGHTLY wider than normal given that there is the semblance of some fold equity (allbeit very little)

so if you have 32% in this spot its a snap click it in, espcially if tankster folds in which case your in a great situation, but this is when someone comes along with the ICM calculation and says its a fold, which Im thinking it probably will be, given that you'll be on the button next hand.

Upshot is I really dont know...do i score a healthy 2/10 for posting something useful or is that ambitous?


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: thetank on August 05, 2010, 07:38:46 PM
get em in  - tankster can still fold then its a great spot


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: moonandback on August 05, 2010, 07:52:05 PM
behave tank, thats not you!



unless your multi accounting tut tut.


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: mondatoo on August 06, 2010, 12:31:11 AM
I'm getting it in here,I'd assume Tankster's terrible with the 3x so decent amount of time he folds so it's a good spot.


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: MC on August 06, 2010, 12:39:17 AM
We're too short to fold imo


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: GreekStein on August 06, 2010, 12:41:33 AM
I'm getting it in here,I'd assume Tankster's terrible with the 3x so decent amount of time he folds so it's a good spot.


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: DMorgan on August 06, 2010, 02:46:34 AM
Never folding here as the shorty


Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: AlexMartin on August 06, 2010, 04:47:37 AM
better situations aint gonna comeup.



Title: Re: 99 5 handed at the end of a 45 man sng
Post by: moonandback on August 06, 2010, 10:12:39 AM
i agree with everyone i did get it in tankster did fold but unfortunately other guy had kings, not bothered about that  just when i was going through sng wiz it seemed to think i should only call with JJ+ i think the dead money/ pot odds makes it an easy enogh call though thanks for the replies.