blonde poker forum

Hi,

This is the first time I've posted a hand for analysis but wondered what everyone here would make of this. I'll do my best to set the scene.

I have played with this guy on and off for about 3 years. His game can vary depending on which event he's playing. He can be very LAG or TAG which makes my decision a little harder.

HU in a 2 day private tournament. We are dead even in chips with 400k each, 2nd gets £660 and 1st is £1100. Blinds are 2000/4000. I'm in the BB with 99. He leads from the SB for 10k. I think for a moment and make it 40k and he instantly calls. The flop comes 7 6 4. At first I think this is an ideal flop for me and I lead out for 65k. After a short time he makes it 200k  ;carlocitrone;.

For me here, the alarm bells are ringing. Do I only beat a bluff?

If it's only you and him left in the tournament, I ship here.  Folk are going to play a wide range of hands at this stage, and most of the time you can be confident of being ahead.  If he has a set or overpair that's just unlucky.

prob call and hold vs 56s

I think i defo ship here and jus sigh if your beaten

What has the 3betting dynamic been/has there been one? If there hasn't been a lot of 3betting going on then your 3bet sizing seems pretty transparent - you have a decent hand but you really don't wanna be outflopped. Do you make it 40k with AA in this spot?

If you don't expect villain to 2 or 3 barrel light then I much prefer a flat preflop. 3betting mid pairs is gunna put you in a ton of tough spots postflop if you're against an aggro opponent.

You don't really give any reads at and reads are obviously everything heads up.

Readless though I think its really close but I jam it. With his raise sizing he has only left 160k behind so can't fold 7x. Without his fold to 3bet frequency its hard to know how many 7x hands he can have in his range though. I suspect that you haven't been 3betting often enough and seen enough showdowns in 3bet pots to know this for sure though

let him win and nip him for £300 after

I probably would 3 bet with AA here vs this player. I think a lot of the time he would be pushing with AK, JJ+. What confused me the most about the hand was the call. I would generally expect him to 4 bet ship it here with the hands suggested or pass < 99.

I have him on 4 hands at the time. And I'll explain why. When the flop hit and I led out, he thought for about 10 seconds and then stuck it in. After a minute or so I tried to get a read from him so started talking to him. After a while he declared that it was a "perfect flop for him." Now given the fact that I think he shoves pre with JJ+ and that I have 99, I think his most likely holdings are 66, 77, 88, 1010.

Given all of this information I really felt like I was only beating 88 or a bluff and I suppose 88 is somewhat of a bluff really given the strength I'd shown?

Too much thought?

I think he can show up with 55 here aswell. I'm pretty happy to ship it in looking at it again.

There is no way he is turning 88 into a bluff, if he is then its really dumb cos you;re not/he shouldnt expect you to fold overpairs so he is raise getting it in with 88 then it would be for value exclusivly, even though there are few value hands you have that 88 is ahead of. I thin you may just not quite have adjusted accurately and adapted your ranges 100% vs this guy HU, I know we're working off tiny samples but you need to expect him to widen up significantly in spots like these as he is expecting you to as well I imagine. providing there is some sort of dynamic where you can 3bet stuff that isnt juist big pairs (i.e hands that bet fold these textures, JTs/KQ etc) then he's gonna wanna gamble with hands lik 7x/55/65 etc given that you're gonna fold some of the time he raises aswel. I really cant see anything else but getting it in....