blonde poker forum

Another semi-interesting spot last night wondered what a few people would do here because the hand sparked a decent amoutn of debate after the game.

£1.£2 I open to £10 playing about £800 with  8c 8h.

get two peels from a loose passive reg in the CO (same as the MP from other JJ thread) and one from a random chinese from the blinds.

Flops comes
  2d 4h 4d

check (chinese) I bet £22 CO calls binese folds

turn  9s

I bet £60 CO calls

river  8d (cant say i was too disapointed with this card lol)

Now villian here is a bit of a station (as in he would never fold a 9 here imo - but would never call a 2) he has shown no agression in this pot so far but he is more than capable of value betting thin.

Pot is £195 I have about £700 behind villain has about £400.

River line? Bet/Check, sizing?

What % of the time is he raising with a flush if you bet in your opinion?

who was the villain? against random i haven't played before i bet 140ish, however if he's a calling station maybe overbet the river.

Well you can't check. Bet call 120-150.

I think he would raise the nut flush for sure and call everything else - he is exteremely loose so has lots of diamond combos.

always bets a flush, and probs never folds to a c/r (I once c/r 4b 6b all in light on the river of a paored board and he hero'd me with second nut striaght lol that was about a yr ago!)

I never remember his name but he plays a fair bit (btw do you play the gala cashh game regulally? PM me lol im curious as to who you are :) )
he works for a bookie and is quite skinny if that helps, nice guy pretty quiet

i play occasionally over there sometimes alea and sometimes huddersfield. probably played with me before.

I see, ty

please can you give me a brief analysis of your thought process? (sorry to be cheeky!)

I think it really depends on how light we think that he's calling the turn. If he has to have something to call the turn then I check because I think he's betting the vast majority of the range that he calls a river bet with (4x, strong 9x, flushes). However if he can float flop and turn with ace high or be calling two with 2x, 53, Ax that has a gutshot etc then I think we should bet to allow him to hero call.

So for me it depends on his turn calling range but if you think that its the tighter range (4x, strong 9x, flushes) then checking is certainly the best play. If its the looser range then I bet £145 because to a non-believer that looks really bluffy and gets us a good chunk of value when he calls

hopefully my analysis of the villain is enough to allow people to answer this,

but given the action and how you perceive the villains range do you think there is any elasticity in the bet sizing, i.e between a half pot and 2x pot bet?


ty.

Id overbet, his calling range on this river is like flushes/trips. These type stations peel early streets real light but dont tend to hero call rivers light.

His river calling range is in-elastic and therefore i doubt he can hero fold a flush/trips whilst i also won't give him credit for been able to value raise river if we bet say 1/2 pot as these guys love a showdown.

Something over £250 i think.

In this situation im probably going to try and make my bet look as much like a stopper as possible.

Its unlikely hes going to hero for anything near pot size plus here with a 2, and betting smaller allows room for him to rep the diamond if he has a missed straight draw or even turn hands like 77 into a bluff. (dont have any idea if the opponent is even thinking that way).

Also he should be raising any decent flush for value here a lot of the time. Most 4's are going to raise the turn imo, if hes slow played 24 your getting it in anyway.

Im betting £85 here.

Also might even sigh call a deuce here if hes got his sherrif hat on.

I used this process to remove 4s from the equation, I thought he had either 35/A2 or diamonds fwiw

be nice if you overbet bluff and hes seen you do them............

dave does this every other hand?

Haha lol sure have never played together ;) he's defo seen me do it before we played a lot together, one really sick hand we played before....

board is (might not remember this 100%) J 8 8 T K

I checked the river he bet £40, I made it £100, he made £300 and i jammed for around £750 and he called with Q9 lol

I had air :( spewwwy

wiiiiiiii, crazyplay!!!!

hmmm, given his range is:-

weak 1 pair hands- might hero
strong made hands- underhouses/flushes- deffo raise/getting it in on river
oddball crazy spewy double floats/fps stuff- need some room to utilise FE, with enough £ back to "profitably" jam

id weight it something like 15%, 70%, 15%

If you bet 1/2 pot you get the most out of his entire range i think, overbet on this card v thinking opponent with the recent history you gave might get some hero folds.

kinda doubt you get raised by a non-nut flush when you 3 barrel

with that dynamic i tank jam.

yeah agreed althouggh vs this guy i wouldnt be too suprised if he raise calls Qxdd



so we agree it is a)defo a bet, and b) his calling range is elastic i.e he'll fold to some bet sizes and call others?
Seems like a smaller bet then £80-£100 is optimal?