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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 12:59:24 PM



Title: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 12:59:24 PM
$55 f/o on stars

blinds 150/300 with antes

villain 1 is a weak player who's been loose-ish/passive. i've seen him open limp KK in the hijack and barrel 3 streets for ~1/2 pot in position vs the bb. also seen him peel mid pos vs utg 4x off of 22bb with 67s and doubled up getting all in on 774T (flatted flop cbet then min rs/call shove on turn). he has peeled a few opens vs 15-20bb stacks and folded to cbets/delayed cbets. also overlimped a few times but i think this is only the 2nd time he has open limped and we've been on same table around 45 mins.

villain 2 seems fairly competent, was playing decent/aggressive and winning hands without showdown but has just lost a 20k pot the previous hand to this with AQ<44 on A546Q in a 3bet pot and now has a 14bb stack.

hero has been playing very aggressive, mostly without showdown but did very recently get to showdown opening A4s utg, check/calling flop, checking turn and betting 3,300 into 3,825 on river of AT324. having said that, vs villain 1 thats probably not going through his mind right now.


villain 1 open limps utg+1 out of ~15k, another mid pos limper and i complete the sb covering everyone with  Kd Td villain 2 checks his option.

flop  Qd 9c 6s checks around. turn 6d i lead for 900 into 1,425, villain 2 calls in the bb and villain 1 overcalls, other limper folds.

river  Jh pot is 4,225. villain 2 only has 3,000 left and villain 1 has ~14,000 left. i bet 3,600 which villain 2 SNAP calls all in to. almost as fast villain 1 shoves for ~10.5k more........


my thoughts....i'm not sure if the snap from shorty could be a sign of him being tilted, that he has a monster, or just if he isn't folding Qx. like i say prior to this hand he seemed decent, if he was tilted he would just shove pre a large % of the time and i'd of thought he'd lead Qx on the flop a decent % of the time too so i'm thinking its pretty likely he has 6x... which in turn makes it very difficult for villain 1 to have 6x himself (which makes up a huge part of the value range that i can actually beat) and f difficult for him to have quads. i have a fairly important blocker in the Td but im thinking there's also a >0% chance villain 1 has AA/KK in some epic display of slowplay.




Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:13:17 PM
Vs said villain this looks a fold to me.I can't see him doing this with any hand you beat and as descirbed he can definitely have QQ,JJ,99 here.



Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.

would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:28:45 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.

would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely

Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:31:50 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.

would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely


Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.


hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: outragous76 on August 27, 2010, 01:36:05 PM
never folding


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:38:33 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.

would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely

hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?

Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.

Thought you where describing him as weak passive.I thought you saying the fact he wouldn't think about your A4s play meaning he was pretty bad and thus unlikely to limp some of them hands ?


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:49:10 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.

would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely

hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?

Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.

Thought you where describing him as weak passive.I thought you saying the fact he wouldn't think about your A4s play meaning he was pretty bad and thus unlikely to limp some of them hands ?

the comment about the A4s play was merely to demonstrate that he might not even notice the % of the pot i value bet on the river then , which is very similar to how much i bet here


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:55:29 PM
siggggggggggh.

I dont spose he ever has  Jd 9d, or naked Tc 8h?

brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.

would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely

hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?

Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.

Thought you where describing him as weak passive.I thought you saying the fact he wouldn't think about your A4s play meaning he was pretty bad and thus unlikely to limp some of them hands ?

the comment about the A4s play was merely to demonstrate that he might not even notice the % of the pot i value bet on the river then , which is very similar to how much i bet here

Ah ok,tbh I doubt I fold this in real time but it does look a sucky/fold spot.


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: AlexMartin on August 28, 2010, 04:15:54 AM
meh, given flop checkround, turn pairup and river action it looks like a clear fold.

guy would have to be really good to be turning a hand like 2p into a bluff here and i wouldnt give said villain that sort of credit.



Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: buzzharvey22 on August 28, 2010, 04:22:55 AM
feels like a fold to me


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: pleno1 on August 30, 2010, 03:35:58 AM
  • its a fold
[ ] i fold irl


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: DMorgan on August 30, 2010, 08:56:53 AM
Probably not folding here given that we're getting 2.2 to 1

Its such a gross spot 'cos I'd expect him to be way more likely to limp UTG with AA/KK than with QQ/JJ but the more I look at it the more actually looks like JJ.

I guess on a good day I could fold this. At least you're definitely gunna see both hands

Results?


Title: Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
Post by: NigDawG on August 30, 2010, 09:33:35 AM
Probably not folding here given that we're getting 2.2 to 1

Its such a gross spot 'cos I'd expect him to be way more likely to limp UTG with AA/KK than with QQ/JJ but the more I look at it the more actually looks like JJ.

I guess on a good day I could fold this. At least you're definitely gunna see both hands

Results?

i called the bb had  Qc 6c and the other guy had  Kc Tc