blonde poker forum

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/tv/x-factor/winning-act (http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/tv/x-factor/winning-act)

Where's the valyooooooooooo this time?

mary bryne at 33 looks like value to me

not sure if she will win but i think she might go deep

bel ami

Paddy Power have Gamu @ 5/2 favourite is this the twist? I had heard a rumour that there was going to be a 5th group headed by a pussycat doll. However no price by some bookies? If there is a fifth group wouldn't there be 15 in contention?

If there is any truth to the fifth group then 50's for Paije Richardson has gotta be the value

Cher Lloyd surely?

You can get a great price on her, but again, other rumors say she may not make it to next week and that Gamu takes her place? Depends if you believe hearsay on unofficial sites.

value is fyd although i think rebecca is a good thing, mary wont win, wevve just had a boyle.

I think One Direction will win, i'm on at 9/1. 3 excellent singers in there and Simon will never get it wrong at any stage.

Gamu is the lay of the century at 4/1 or lower (if you could). She could be deported and told to left the country apparently, she will have the sympathy vote from the public for not getting in first time round but it will last maybe 4 weeks tops, not 12, and shes simply not even that good! Shes decent, and better than Katie, but nothing next to Cher and Rebecca on going days.

Got 16/1 on Rebecca & The Reason early, mixed emotions there... 

Plenty of freerolls to be had here I think, prices up and down constantly

QFT

http://uk.tv.yahoo.com/06102010/19/gamu-must-return-zimbabwe.html

layyyyyyy

Had a score on John Adeleye at 25-1

early days to get too involved but think this year is wide open.

I think he's a dodgepot. Better available at the prices.

my better half said nicolo festa would go close and she's usually about right with it. I don't watch it myself due to it being shit.

Cher Lloyd at 20-1 to be first voted off tonight? Could be huge.

First, there's going to be a Cheryl backlash after she put two through that she shouldn't and sent Gamu out.
Second, there's a definite chance she'll cough it up completely. She did in the judges' house stage after all and tonight is more pressure. If it starts going wrong she could give up and walk off.

Love xfactor betting!

Think there are no real ricks from the books at this moment and this really does look a close series, although i can't see louis managing the winner.

Katie looks one to avoid although her price reflects this, FYD might last a while but i don't envisage them outshining a couple of cowell manufactured bands.

If i had to bet on the winner due to talent i'd go for matt or rebecca, but their places in the market reflect this.

Not sure rebecca is mentally strong enough to get through this either. Aiden will have supporters but might get overshadowed in terms of personality etc, he'll need to actually start opening his eyes when he sings.

Have a feeling that unless Nicolo really grabs a novelty fan base he could be an early casualty, in fact i'll be having a small wager on either him or storm to leave in week 1, both priced @8-1.

Still gutted i missed the big value on rebecca, matt and new direction early doors.

New Direction are 6-1 on betfair at the moment, if they were about 8-1+ i'd have to have a bet.

Now i can only see some value in one or two acts.

Cher@10-1 on betfair, she will be like marmite for the public and on a good day she will get mega voteage.

Her initial audition really was amazing imo and she's completely different to anyone else. Price has gone too high due to media drivel.

Bell ami@35-1 on betfair, although i'm also on at 20's ew first 3 1/4 odds with lads. Think the place part of this bet is nice. This group looks good, sounds good and won't offend, value to make it deep and top 3 it.

I've saved on danni top mentor@9-4 as both Aiden and Matt are poss winners, i actually think Matt's voice is superb.

Looking for another bet but can't find one yet.

Twist saga worries me a little so stakes are smallish right now.

Looks a tricky one!

Disappointing show so far. Think the judges have been told to be nice.

Louis always manages to age his acts by 30 years

I wanted to hate storm but I thought it was very good !

+1  Best of the night so far by a country mile.

Cher just stole the show

Already regretting this Bel Ami bet, they didn't sound good at all there. Stil seem unoffensive but doubt without massive improvement they can last on this show.

Will prob lay off the win bet if at all poss 4 a token loss and just grin and bear it with the place part.

Ooops.

And storm sounded good too, still think he'll struggle with votes but prob dsnt deserve to be btm 2. 

Thus gg 1st elimination bet on storm.

Nicolo has gone 24s on betfair for first elimination, pressing.

Least Cher is now 6's on betfair, seemed to have confidence back even if some parts were out of tune, her song choice was very good for her imo.

Chompy hearts Diva Fever

Think it's a good year for talent this year, even the acts I expected to be shoddy are actually pretty decent.   My random punt of the night is £2 (yes a whole £2) on Mary to go first at 130.0.  I know she' s just sang pretty good, but I don't think that she was any better than anyone else so much so I'm hoping that she doesn't fit into any voting patterns and also that the Cuban guy is pretty damn good too!  He'd be my bet to go out first but any unlisted at 2.2ish isn't great value :D

edit, Couple of quid on Nicolo to go at 20, can't say his voice is working for me

hmmmm not feeling it this year. Only enjoyed Pages and Chers performance so far

Thought mary was brilliant then. Completely regretting not getting on at about 33s ew. Looks a cert to go a long way.

12s now lacks place value for me.

Tesco Mary

Matt

Rebecca

Paige, sort of


rest no hopers IMO

Judges all being nice to a bunch of very average singers - not one of them should ever ever be classed as a truly great singer either now or ever

Simon and I disagree, there's some amazing singers in this years show in our opinion

Thought aiden was outstanding...and I absolutely hated him in earlier auditions!

Also love Tesco Mary, Matts ok, and wee chers quite original but think she'll struggle against stronger singers

IMO:

Top 3:
Paije
One Direction
Treyc

Worst 3:
Wagner
Bel Amie
Diva Fever/Nicolo - didnt like either of these

One winner matt cardle

top 3
rebecca
matt cardle
boy band

Aiden and Paije were good others are average

Ok that's the portfolio sorted for now.

Also have a few quid on Nicolo to go first at between 8 and 24-1, and some on storm at 8's.

Not happy with the belle amie bet but can't lay it off really after one show and at much worse terms.

1 pt win Cher@ 10-1

1 pt win Danni top mentor@9-4

0.5 pts ew Belle Amie@20-1

0.5 pts ew Treyc Cohen@25-1

Added the last bet after seeing a truely superb vocal, just think she is a value bet.

Treyc, Aiden, Mary, Paije, Matt, Rebecca & Cher in that order.

Thought the obvious people all pefromed really well, Cher, Aiden, Matt and One Direction.

Really enjoyed Storm, hes v com and just loves it. Treyc was also incred, fantastic voice.

Got on John to go 1st pre show @12.5, still not sure he will. But hes came in a bit and didnt exactly have an inspiring performance and easily forgettable.

Think Belle Amie should be given more time to give them a real shot, and dont think Katie is exactly safe even though shes like 15s to go on BF.

marys price has halved you heard my tip first

Matt
Rebecca
Paige
Trayce

People who have bet people to go tonight have got good value since 2 are getting eliminated; don't think that information was given before last night was it?

nah mate, all the markets specified 1st/next elimination. With Betfair and the books. They tend to cover their backs.

Shiiiiip it :D   

if you love xfactor you will love this super fun game in which a prize is available for the winner and does not have a cost to enter!!  Its amazing value and will be the best thread on blonde poker this year!

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=50063.0

GTFO Nicoliiiiiiiii

shocking bit of after timing but the 10.0 on bf tonight was too good to miss!!!!

Wiiiiiiiiii

no fit birds this year. sigh.

A couple of my mates from uni have made it to the final 14.

They are soooooooo happy and excited to be there.

Here is a picture of Craig and Josef on the show!!!:

(http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/2599/divafever.jpg)

they look alot like some of the boyband at bB3

Best this week imo:
Matt Cardle, John Adeleye, Wagner, Mary, Belle Amie, Katie

Ok:
Paije, Cher, Treyc

Worst:
One Direction, Storm, Aiden, Rebecca, Diva Fever

heros week
so they sing oooo oooo oooo barbra streisand song
and kelly clarkson, bruno mars

disagree with this one tbh

belleami/ diva fever/ storm      reckon these were the worst


best  matt cardle/trayc/mary


average - rest

Thought Rebecca was one of the best along with Matt.  Voted Belle Amie to go out first.  Regretting not taking Storm at 7.6 pre program though.

Agree storm shld be fav to go, esp with being on so early in the show, looks like they want him out, gutted at missing the pre show 10s which i so almost got on, oh well meh aftertiming not getting on.

Gone for a few value bets this week.

Nothing serious due to storm prob a cert to go.

Personally my opinion on this show changes every single week.

My pre shows bets were: cher, bel amie and danni top manager. Added trey c after the first show. Bar the danni bet and trey c ish -i'm really unhappy with those selections.

I've now come to the conclusion cher can't sing at all, she can rap but that's it. She now seems to come accross as an arrogant lil so and so too, cant see where she gets votes, looking to lay off that bet asap.

The girl group looks an even worse bet, obviously my hearing was faulty when i listened to the auditions, they sound out of tune, weak and look pretty average-not even that good loking.

Wld def get out of that bet if at all possible-which i very much doubt.

Thus this week ive done a cple of out there bets.

Cher next elimination@60s, and 2nd elimination at 60s too, just small diver bets but potentially a nice return, i seriously cannot see this girl getting many votes, and yesterday i truely thought she was awful.

Bel amie next elimination@7s, wonder how many ppl will vote for an average sounding, average looking girl group, again a reasonably small bet but enough to pay for outright losses on them and more.

Katie to go in either elimination@10-3, didn't like her again yesterday and think she comes across very badly on tv, added to the bad press she gets who on earth will vote for her, if shes in bottom 2 v any heavyweight shes a goner.


As far as the outrights go i think aiden is drifting to a backable price at around 9's, one dodgy by his standards peformance dsnt change the fact he has huge talent, can see him appealing to a wide enough market too.

Mary looks an absolute cert for the distance now and any each way thiefs on at 25s plus must be laughing right now, in an open year maybe it's her's to grab.

Matt and one direction look short enough, but rebecca at around 7-1 is starting to look quite a tempting bet, she has huge talent, wide appeal, just like aiden, I just hope the judges don't go ott on all this diva rubbish, she's shy so what, use that as a plus, don't dress her up as something she isn't, great voice and a lovely personality will win her votes galore.

I just get the feeling after backing every selection and laying each one off at far worse, i'm going to do my cahonas this year. Oh well should be fun! :)

The most annoying thing about Cher is they seem to promote her as having all these original ideas and being awesome. e.g. this week they said she'd put two songs together herself and it was a huge risk. I was expected something like the absolute genius of Wagner in week 1 and we essentially got a Jay Z cover.

I've also laid wagner at 5.3 to be the next eliminated, don't see him getting the least votes, prob won't even be in bottom 3, novelty votes ftw.

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiii Wagner stayed :)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKJBzE8a3A

lololol

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnOsAI_XuLs

rotflmfao VWP

lolllllllllllllll

lolza

Outstanding that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnOsAI_XuLs

Honestly I don't think there is a price too short about Matt Cardle this year. I'd happily lump on at odds-on, so 3.1 has to look massive. The guy is so far clear of the rest they should stop the contest now.

just launched into wagner to go next at 4/1, i think that might be the performance that tips the boat over, that was really awful.

2.06 on betfair to be in the bottom 3 tomorrow, am in after that performance.

wagner ftw

X FACTOR IS THE ANTI CHRIST....that is all...oh and GET A LIFE!

Shit just forgot I like music, wtf am I doing here...!!!

i'm with you mate but the missus has got it on so i have to find entertainment by betting on it!

wagner is going to take this down, no probs

Wagner's fun, but it's got to the point where the ones left in are pretty damn good.  Can't see him surviving much longer and the bottom 3 will be a regular spot for him until he goes now.

Couldn't disagree more. Load of average left in thats why i can't see him going until after the likes of John, Bell Amie and Katie. I like Paije but if it still annoys people that Wagner is in then I can see him lasting longer than him too

I thought Katie was one of the performances of the night!

Bell Amie to go tonight

I think the 2.68 from BF is good value

I think mary at 13.5 on betfair is value to go tonight. I'm not saying she def will and already am on (placed sat morning) cheryl to lose an act tonight at 4/5.

This looks good as both katie (5/4) and treyc (5/1) are expected to struggle tonight.

However after watching last night i expected to see mary at around 4/1 to go tonight, i thought she was awful and came across a little mardy, even though she may get a sympathy vote for missing her family.

She gen seems to have lost all spark and is more of a one trick pony than cher and wagner!

Wagner is another who will eventually struggle but i think he has another week or two of novelty votes.

Just think mary to go tonight is way too big a price and have bet accordingly.

Personally on the outright i've updated my portfolio with an ew bet (first 3) on aiden at 25/1, he has the voice and if he can click with the public could make the final.

Unfortunately it looks like any early value on matt and rebecca is gone, and it is starting to look a 2 horse race there.

Rebecca teams up with Christina Aguilera tomorrow, Matt with Rihanna.

Which 'star' is likely to improve their respective acts?

Deciding whether to level off my 16/1 on Rebecca.

I heard it was Matt with Aguilera and Rebecca with Rihanna, no?


Actually, just read somewhere else it was the way round that you had, hmm duno!

I've heard both too, but earlier reports were Matt + C A, now, and out and about on twitter it seems to be Rebecca + C A.

ignore that, me just being a clown. t'is what you said 1st