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Title: Preflop Spot Post by: SuuPRlim on October 12, 2010, 08:02:38 PM Wonder what people think of this spot, playing 1/2 plo
***** Hand History for Game 24640984097 ***** (Full Tilt) $200.00 USD PL Omaha - Tuesday, October 12, 01:59:04 ET 2010 Table Goose Creek (6 max) (Real Money) Seat 4 is the button Seat 1: cattledondo ( $504.50 USD ) Seat 2: 0434 ( $200.00 USD ) Seat 3: JapaneseMind ( $215.35 USD ) Seat 4: lildavefish ( $616.20 USD ) Seat 5: bigace223 ( $200.00 USD ) Seat 6: suckoutgenius ( $827.30 USD ) bigace223 posts small blind [$1.00 USD]. suckoutgenius posts big blind [$2.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to lildavefish [ 9h 8c 8s 9s ] cattledondo folds 0434 raises [$6.00 USD] JapaneseMind raises [$21.00 USD] lildavefish calls [$21.00 USD] bigace223 calls [$20.00 USD] suckoutgenius folds 0434 raises [$101.00 USD] JapaneseMind calls [$86.00 USD] lildavefish ??? The 4better is a random, but has been spewing money off left right and centre on a couple of tables. JapeneseMind is a average reg (3bets C/O 14%), and bigace223 is another pretty tight bad nitty reg. Interested to know poeples thoughts..... Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: pleno1 on October 13, 2010, 10:04:16 AM is there a pokerstove for omaha?
Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: mondatoo on October 13, 2010, 10:05:32 AM Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: pleno1 on October 13, 2010, 10:19:13 AM if there was such a thing, it would be simples for this kind of question and probably very useful for omahaha too. Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: GreekStein on October 13, 2010, 10:37:12 AM Think we prob have to fold.
I'm sure as fuck folding though. GAMBOOOL Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: skolsuper on October 13, 2010, 01:59:11 PM is there a pokerstove for omaha? There is something called slice or sliceEV or something that looks pretty good for this sort of thing. Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: SuuPRlim on October 13, 2010, 04:39:59 PM Pro Poker Tools is the best thing, I've done a it of the aths and Im going to attempt to post it here lol
Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: pleno1 on October 13, 2010, 06:02:39 PM Pro Poker Tools is the best thing, I've done a it of the aths and Im going to attempt to post it here lol threeeeee hours later.... alsooo blog moarrrr, tis guud Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: George2Loose on October 13, 2010, 07:20:47 PM is there a pokerstove for omaha? Do u have stove on your iphone when u play live pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeknow? Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: pleno1 on October 13, 2010, 07:48:04 PM is there a pokerstove for omaha? Do u have stove on your iphone when u play live pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeknow? yes. Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: pleno1 on October 13, 2010, 07:48:23 PM iphone apps ftw
Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: Ironside on October 13, 2010, 09:12:06 PM i fold so fast the table goes on fire
Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: SuuPRlim on October 13, 2010, 11:02:08 PM Pro Poker Tools is the best thing, I've done a it of the aths and Im going to attempt to post it here lol threeeeee hours later.... alsooo blog moarrrr, tis guud Sorry got distracted by some reckless gambling activites :) the blog will feature lol ty Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: SuuPRlim on October 14, 2010, 02:07:46 AM ok, Im generally bad at Maths, and this stuff blows my brain + I'm hungover, but I've got a ton of history with 2/3 villians I an deduce their range's pretty accuratley Imo
JapaneseMind. Got lots of hands with him, he's reasonaly active for the most part but pretty solid with it. His CO 3et % is 12%, however in this hand the original opener is clearly a fish, so it's reasonable he's is opening slighty wider, so we can give him a 3et range here of top ~15% imo. Once it's been peeled twice and 4bet, JapaneseMind 5balls AAxx everytime, and he clearly ISNT going to fold pre. It looks as well like 0434 has an AAxx combo so his range leads towards braodway rundowns, higher rundowns (I dont think this player will 3ball lowdowns below 5678 as often) he is unlikely to have mainly broadway pair hands unless they are exceptionally strong. KKQT etc, but as the action's opener these are less likely imo. BigAce has a much wider range. Lower rundowns I would imagine make up the most feasible part of his range, but he can defo have strong KKxx's and good double paired hands. I think we have to assume that 0434 has AAxx. I'm shocked if he wakes up with anything else. We can also be kinda sure no-one else has AAxx combo's Obv peeling the 3ball is super standard, then after the 4bet and JM has peeled there is $258 in the pot. We're left to call $86. Lets assume bigace will fold, which he might, but probs wont (we'll takle that in a minute), also I know this is wild ut Im going to assume for the time being we hae a live suit here are a few Sims Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 31.73% 190,203 362 AhA** 36.91% 220,548 1,780 KcQcJdTd 31.36% 187,469 1,418 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 26.18% 156,763 676 AhA** 44.66% 267,358 1,150 QcJcTd9d 29.16% 174,171 1,597 #1 of these is our best case scenario and #2 is about the worst, between the two we had 28.96% equity. So without delving further into maths Im not capable of, if BigAce folds 100% of the time, we can find profit in peeling. Now on the flop the pot is $344 and we're going to be calling off either $108 or $93 which we will leave us needing 19% equity to stack off (slightly less vs 0434) and as you can see on these graphs in #1 we'll flop the required equity ~65% of the time, and in #2 ~50% of the time. This is again assuming that we're facing only one villain. So if we're calling pre we need to flop enough equity to stack off approx 16% of the time (86 / (potpre(344)+108(villian shove)*100) (http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/POKER%20GRAPHS/g1.png) (http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/POKER%20GRAPHS/g2.png) So ~57.5% of the time we'll flop enough equity s these ranges on average to stack off. Now lets assume BigAce CALLs as well. Now the pot we're calling $86 into is $344. So we need ~20% 4way to show a profit. Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 18.14% 107,955 1,734 AhA** 32.21% 191,994 2,563 QcJcTd9d 28.63% 170,948 1,712 5678 21.02% 124,865 2,486 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 22.25% 132,652 1,754 AhA** 25.43% 150,961 3,201 KdQcJcTd 32.13% 191,781 1,949 5678 20.19% 119,810 2,718 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 30.07% 180,199 452 AhA** 38.36% 229,797 863 KdQcJcTd 18.75% 98,345 28,420 KKJT 12.81% 62,787 28,242 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 22.17% 132,755 572 AhA** 38.21% 228,897 780 QcJcTd9d 20.25% 114,968 13,085 KKJT 19.37% 110,003 12,523 Our average equity over these 4 sims is 23.16% so again, we're going to show a slight profit on calling this pre even with BigAce in the hand. If BigAce was to shoe we'd be left to call $108 into $722 needing 13% so as we said that isn't a worry. 4way on the flop we'll have a pot of $430 with again max $108 to call off and we'll need ~16% equity, which running off the equity graphs (i wont post em cos otherwise this will go over 3 pages lol) we should be doing 48.5% of the time. again, if we're calling pre we need to flop enough equity 18.7% of the time, so we can clearly show a profit by just calling pre. The interesting discussion is whether we should be Jamming over the 4ball or peeling. If we Assume BigAce folds whe we jam and 0434 and JM never fold, then we're jamming $194 into $653pot leaes us needing 29% equity. We had 28.96% so it's basically a break-even play. If we assume BigAce will call, the we're calling $194 to a pot of $832 and we needing 23.31%. and we have 23.16%. So again we breakeven by Jamming, and show roughly 3% profit by calling assuming we need to be able to play perfectly postflop. I think given all this the most optimal line is to fold to the 4bet, I think with such tight equities we're not showing enough profit through any line to justify the variance, as Cos says though its a cool Gamble. Here is what actually happened... lildavefish calls [$86.00 USD] bigace223 raises [$179.00 USD] 0434 calls [$93.00 USD] JapaneseMind calls [$15.35 USD] lildavefish calls [$108.35 USD] lildavefish shows [9h, 8c 8s 9s ] bigace223 shows [7s, 8h 4d 5d ] 0434 shows [Jd, Kh Ks 3d ] JapaneseMind shows [Ts, Js Qd Kc ] lildavefish wins $0.85 USD ** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, Kd, 8d ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ] ** Dealing River ** [ 3s ] JapaneseMind wins $30.70 USD from main pot 0434 wins $799.00 USD from main pot lildavefish raises [$195.20 USD] bigace223 calls [$179.00 USD] 0434 calls [$93.00 USD] JapaneseMind calls [$108.35 USD] lildavefish shows [9h, 8c 8s 9s ] bigace223 shows [7s, 8h 4d 5d ] 0434 shows [Jd, Kh Ks 3d ] JapaneseMind shows [Ts, Js Qd Kc ] lildavefish wins $0.85 USD ** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, Kd, 8d ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ] ** Dealing River ** [ 3s ] JapaneseMind wins $30.70 USD from main pot 0434 wins $799.00 USD from main pot So bizzarely 0434 didn't have AAxx. I didn't know this at the time but he was 4betting 29% over 377 hands. Given that we know getting it in 3/4 way is just below breakeven, and given as well that his 4betting range include a much wider range than AAxx combo's its clearly a fold pre, even to the 3bet from JM. So I dont hate cold calling the 3bet, but with the info I have now it's defo a mistake, as is calling the 4bet. Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: skolsuper on October 14, 2010, 01:24:20 PM Very cool post. I love those flop equity graphs (although in omaha they always seem to closely resemble y=100-x) but I always forget about them when it comes time to analyse a hand. Will defs use them more often now tho, well reminded ty.
Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: pleno1 on October 14, 2010, 01:30:30 PM Fantastic post, sorry that I probably prompted this and used up a few hours of your time. Very worthwhile though, ty.
Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: Eso Kral on October 14, 2010, 02:30:47 PM ok, Im generally bad at Maths, and this stuff blows my brain + I'm hungover, but I've got a ton of history with 2/3 villians I an deduce their range's pretty accuratley Imo V good postJapaneseMind. Got lots of hands with him, he's reasonaly active for the most part but pretty solid with it. His CO 3et % is 12%, however in this hand the original opener is clearly a fish, so it's reasonable he's is opening slighty wider, so we can give him a 3et range here of top ~15% imo. Once it's been peeled twice and 4bet, JapaneseMind 5balls AAxx everytime, and he clearly ISNT going to fold pre. It looks as well like 0434 has an AAxx combo so his range leads towards braodway rundowns, higher rundowns (I dont think this player will 3ball lowdowns below 5678 as often) he is unlikely to have mainly broadway pair hands unless they are exceptionally strong. KKQT etc, but as the action's opener these are less likely imo. BigAce has a much wider range. Lower rundowns I would imagine make up the most feasible part of his range, but he can defo have strong KKxx's and good double paired hands. I think we have to assume that 0434 has AAxx. I'm shocked if he wakes up with anything else. We can also be kinda sure no-one else has AAxx combo's Obv peeling the 3ball is super standard, then after the 4bet and JM has peeled there is $258 in the pot. We're left to call $86. Lets assume bigace will fold, which he might, but probs wont (we'll takle that in a minute), also I know this is wild ut Im going to assume for the time being we hae a live suit here are a few Sims Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 31.73% 190,203 362 AhA** 36.91% 220,548 1,780 KcQcJdTd 31.36% 187,469 1,418 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 26.18% 156,763 676 AhA** 44.66% 267,358 1,150 QcJcTd9d 29.16% 174,171 1,597 #1 of these is our best case scenario and #2 is about the worst, between the two we had 28.96% equity. So without delving further into maths Im not capable of, if BigAce folds 100% of the time, we can find profit in peeling. Now on the flop the pot is $344 and we're going to be calling off either $108 or $93 which we will leave us needing 19% equity to stack off (slightly less vs 0434) and as you can see on these graphs in #1 we'll flop the required equity ~65% of the time, and in #2 ~50% of the time. This is again assuming that we're facing only one villain. So if we're calling pre we need to flop enough equity to stack off approx 16% of the time (86 / (potpre(344)+108(villian shove)*100) (http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/POKER%20GRAPHS/g1.png) (http://i933.photobucket.com/albums/ad171/lildavefish/POKER%20GRAPHS/g2.png) So ~57.5% of the time we'll flop enough equity s these ranges on average to stack off. Now lets assume BigAce CALLs as well. Now the pot we're calling $86 into is $344. So we need ~20% 4way to show a profit. Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 18.14% 107,955 1,734 AhA** 32.21% 191,994 2,563 QcJcTd9d 28.63% 170,948 1,712 5678 21.02% 124,865 2,486 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 22.25% 132,652 1,754 AhA** 25.43% 150,961 3,201 KdQcJcTd 32.13% 191,781 1,949 5678 20.19% 119,810 2,718 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 30.07% 180,199 452 AhA** 38.36% 229,797 863 KdQcJcTd 18.75% 98,345 28,420 KKJT 12.81% 62,787 28,242 Omaha Hi Simulation What's this? 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties 8c9h8s9s 22.17% 132,755 572 AhA** 38.21% 228,897 780 QcJcTd9d 20.25% 114,968 13,085 KKJT 19.37% 110,003 12,523 Our average equity over these 4 sims is 23.16% so again, we're going to show a slight profit on calling this pre even with BigAce in the hand. If BigAce was to shoe we'd be left to call $108 into $722 needing 13% so as we said that isn't a worry. 4way on the flop we'll have a pot of $430 with again max $108 to call off and we'll need ~16% equity, which running off the equity graphs (i wont post em cos otherwise this will go over 3 pages lol) we should be doing 48.5% of the time. again, if we're calling pre we need to flop enough equity 18.7% of the time, so we can clearly show a profit by just calling pre. The interesting discussion is whether we should be Jamming over the 4ball or peeling. If we Assume BigAce folds whe we jam and 0434 and JM never fold, then we're jamming $194 into $653pot leaes us needing 29% equity. We had 28.96% so it's basically a break-even play. If we assume BigAce will call, the we're calling $194 to a pot of $832 and we needing 23.31%. and we have 23.16%. So again we breakeven by Jamming, and show roughly 3% profit by calling assuming we need to be able to play perfectly postflop. I think given all this the most optimal line is to fold to the 4bet, I think with such tight equities we're not showing enough profit through any line to justify the variance, as Cos says though its a cool Gamble. Here is what actually happened... lildavefish calls [$86.00 USD] bigace223 raises [$179.00 USD] 0434 calls [$93.00 USD] JapaneseMind calls [$15.35 USD] lildavefish calls [$108.35 USD] lildavefish shows [9h, 8c 8s 9s ] bigace223 shows [7s, 8h 4d 5d ] 0434 shows [Jd, Kh Ks 3d ] JapaneseMind shows [Ts, Js Qd Kc ] lildavefish wins $0.85 USD ** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, Kd, 8d ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ] ** Dealing River ** [ 3s ] JapaneseMind wins $30.70 USD from main pot 0434 wins $799.00 USD from main pot lildavefish raises [$195.20 USD] bigace223 calls [$179.00 USD] 0434 calls [$93.00 USD] JapaneseMind calls [$108.35 USD] lildavefish shows [9h, 8c 8s 9s ] bigace223 shows [7s, 8h 4d 5d ] 0434 shows [Jd, Kh Ks 3d ] JapaneseMind shows [Ts, Js Qd Kc ] lildavefish wins $0.85 USD ** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, Kd, 8d ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ] ** Dealing River ** [ 3s ] JapaneseMind wins $30.70 USD from main pot 0434 wins $799.00 USD from main pot So bizzarely 0434 didn't have AAxx. I didn't know this at the time but he was 4betting 29% over 377 hands. Given that we know getting it in 3/4 way is just below breakeven, and given as well that his 4betting range include a much wider range than AAxx combo's its clearly a fold pre, even to the 3bet from JM. So I dont hate cold calling the 3bet, but with the info I have now it's defo a mistake, as is calling the 4bet. Title: Re: Preflop Spot Post by: SuuPRlim on October 14, 2010, 02:46:03 PM Very cool post. I love those flop equity graphs (although in omaha they always seem to closely resemble y=100-x) but I always forget about them when it comes time to analyse a hand. Will defs use them more often now tho, well reminded ty. Ftp give us a 9min timebank, then we can do it mid hand and all play perfectly 8) |